Modeling the fiscal impacts caused by climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of scenarios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability

ECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACTS OF A RETIREMENT/RECREATION COMMUNITY: A STUDY OF TELLICO VILLAGE, TENNESSEE

Retirement/recreation communities (RRCs) have been promoted as a way for some rural regions to develop their economies. RRCs can have substantial economic impacts (changes in employment and income) and fiscal impacts (changes in local government revenues and costs) on rural communities. Because the magnitude and direction of these impacts are site-specific, assessments of RRCs as a rural development strategy should consider both the economic and fiscal impacts for a given region. This paper presents a case study of the economic and fiscal impacts of Tellico Village on Loudon County, Tennessee.Retirement community, Economic and fiscal impacts, Rural development, Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Warfare, Fiscal Capacity, and Performance

We exploit differences in casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to estimate the impact of fiscal capacity on economic performance. In the past, states fought different amounts of external conflicts, of various lengths and magnitudes. To raise the revenues to wage wars, states made fiscal innovations, which persisted and helped to shape current fiscal institutions. Economic historians claim that greater fiscal capacity was the key long-run institutional change brought about by historical conflicts. Using casualties sustained in pre-modern wars to instrument for current fiscal institutions, we estimate substantial impacts of fiscal capacity on GDP per worker. The results are robust to a broad range of specifications, controls, and sub-samples

Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects both inter- and intra-temporal and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes create a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between active and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model's predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act's implied path for government spending under alternative monetary-fiscal policy combinations.

Socioeconomic Impacts of Potential Wishbone Hill Coal Mining Activity

The purpose of this study is to assess some of the significant socioeconomic effects of potential coal mining activity at Wishbone Hill. The analysis scenario assumes a 16-year period of startup and mine production using two known deposits that are currently permitted by the State of Alaska for mineral exploration. “Mine Area 1” would be mined during years 2-7 and “Mine Area 2” would be mined during years 8-16. Mining would only take place at one of these areas during any given time. We considered four kinds of effects: Jobs and income, fiscal impacts, property values, and traffic.Matanuska - Susitna Borough Economic Development DepartmentIntroduction / Coal Mining Scenario / Projected Jobs and Income / Fiscal Impacts / Property Values / Traffic / References / Appendix: Notes on Methodolog

Short-Run Economic Impacts of Alaska Fiscal Options

Today Alaskans are talking about how to close the huge budget deficit the state government is facing, with the oil revenues it has depended on for decades now a small fraction of what they once were. Alaska has had budget deficits for several years, and it has made budget cuts—but it has mainly relied on billions of dollars in savings from the Constitutional Budget Reserve and other funds to cover the deficit. Those savings are dwindling, and the state needs to take measures to close the deficit. An important consideration is how various ways of reducing the deficit might affect Alaska’s economy. This study compares potential short-run economic effects of 11 options the state might take in the next few years to reduce the deficit and that are sustainable over the long term. We looked at economic effects of several types of spending cuts and taxes, as well as reducing the Permanent Fund dividend— the annual cash payment the state makes to all residents—and saving less of Permanent Fund earnings. We’re not advocating or opposing any option: our purpose is to estimate and compare the magnitude of the short-run economic effects of different ways of reducing the deficit. Broadly speaking: • Different ways of collecting money from Alaskans affect those with lower and higher incomes in significantly different ways. • Anything the state does to reduce the deficit will cost the economy jobs and money. But spending some of the Permanent Fund earnings the state currently saves would not have short-run economic effects. Saving less would, however, slow Permanent Fund growth and reduce future earnings. • Because the deficit is so big, the overall economic effects of closing the deficit will also be big.Executive Summary / Table of Contents / Introduction / Revenue Impacts of Taxes and Dividend Cuts / Short-Run Economic Impacts of Fiscal Options / Regional Differences in Impacts of Fiscal Options / Total Economic Impact of Reducing the Deficit / Other Economic Impacts of Fiscal Options / Estimation of Revenue Impacts of Fiscal Options /Expenditure Equations Estimated From the Consumer Expenditure Survey / IMPLAN Model / Estimation of Short-Run Economic Impact

The impact of fiscal policy on government bond spreads in emerging markets

Spreads on government bonds are a collective expression of differences in the level of development, risk, expected returns and other essential characteristics of states or regions the bond yields of which we wish to compare. At issue here is a collective expression of factors that work on the bond supply and demand side. These are for example the political environment (or political risks), expected return, economic risks, expected inflation, expected change in the exchange rate, solvency, way in which the bonds of a given state fit into the portfolios of the major investors and so on. The paper identifies the influence of fiscal and non-fiscal factors on movements in spreads on government bonds in emerging markets. The possibility of isolating fiscal from non-fiscal influences on spreads and the identification of the nature of fiscal impacts can be of great importance for the conduct of fiscal policy. The results obtained can be used for an optimisation of fiscal policy so as to avoid negative impacts on yields (i.e. a growth in yields), that is, a growth in the costs of government borrowing. This paper enlarges the line of research by querying whether the structure of deficit financing (domestic or foreign) has an impact on bond yields in emerging markets, and how this impact is reflected on the other determinants of fiscal policy.fiscal policy, spreads, public debt, foreign debt, public finance, financial crisis, budgetary deficit

EXPECTATIONS AND FISCAL STIMULUS

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter- and intra-temporal—and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the econ- omy hinge on current and expected monetary and fiscal policy behavior. Studies that impose active monetary policy and passive fiscal policy typically find that government consumption crowds out private consumption: higher future taxes cre- ate a strong negative wealth effect, while the active monetary response increases the real interest rate. This paper estimates Markov-switching policy rules for the United States and finds that monetary and fiscal policies fluctuate between ac- tive and passive behavior. When the estimated joint policy process is imposed on a conventional new Keynesian model, government spending generates positive consumption multipliers in some policy regimes and in simulated data in which all policy regimes are realized. The paper reports the model’s predictions of the macroeconomic impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s implied path for government spending under alternative monetary-fiscal policy combina- tions.

New Keynesian Versus Old Keynesian Government Spending Multipliers

Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modelling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small with GDP and employment effects only one-sixth as large and with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller.Keynesianism, fiscal policy, fiscal stimulus, multiplier

A framework for evaluating alternate institutional arrangements for fiscal equalization transfers

Fiscal equalization programs are fairly common features of intergovernmental fiscal relations in industrial countries. Some developing countries have also recently introduced these programs and still others are contemplating such programs. Institutional arrangements for fiscal equalization vary across countries with wide variations in the form and membership of the relevant decisionmaking bodies. This paper provides a simple neo-institutional economics framework for assessing alternative institutional arrangements for their impacts on simplicity, transparency, and objectivity of the equalization program, as well as transaction costs for various parties involved. Comparing institutional arrangements across different countries is a daunting task. The success of these arrangements depends on a multitude of factors. The success of governance structures for fiscal matters may depend not only on the incentives regime associated with their inner structures but also their interactions with other formal and informal institutions in the country. This paper presents a simple framework to understand these incentives and interactions and draw implications for their impacts on transactions costs for the society as a whole and achievement of societal objectives. An application of these concepts to the specific case of institutional arrangements for fiscal equalization transfers are carried out and the predictions based on the theory are compared with observed experiences in major federal countries. The paper demonstrates that the simple new institutional framework presented here has a significant power for predicting potential impacts. The paper concludes, both in theory and practice, that the case for independent grants commission to enhance the transparency, equity, and accountability of the intergovernmental finance system is vastly exaggerated.Municipal Financial Management,Public Sector Management and Reform,Regional Governance,Urban Governance and Management,Urban Economics