Model evaluation and ensemble modelling of surface-level ozone in Europe and North America in the context of AQMEII

More than ten state-of-the-art regional air quality models have been applied as part of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). These models were run by twenty independent groups in Europe and North America. Standardised modelling outputs over a full year (2006) from each group have been shared on the web-distributed ENSEMBLE system, which allows for statistical and ensemble analyses to be performed by each group. The estimated ground-level ozone mixing ratios from the models are collectively examined in an ensemble fashion and evaluated against a large set of observations from both continents. The scale of the exercise is unprecedented and offers a unique opportunity to investigate methodologies for generating skilful ensembles of regional air quality models outputs. Despite the remarkable progress of ensemble air quality modelling over the past decade, there are still outstanding questions regarding this technique. Among them, what is the best and most beneficial way to build an ensemble of members? And how should the optimum size of the ensemble be determined in order to capture data variability as well as keeping the error low? These questions are addressed here by looking at optimal ensemble size and quality of the members. The analysis carried out is based on systematic minimization of the model error and is important for performing diagnostic/probabilistic model evaluation. It is shown that the most commonly used multi-model approach, namely the average over all available members, can be outperformed by subsets of members optimally selected in terms of bias, error, and correlation. More importantly, this result does not strictly depend on the skill of the individual members, but may require the inclusion of low-ranking skill-score members. A clustering methodology is applied to discern among members and to build a skilful ensemble based on model association and data clustering, which makes no use of priori knowledge of model skill. Results show that, while the methodology needs further refinement, by optimally selecting the cluster distance and association criteria, this approach can be useful for model applications beyond those strictly related to model evaluation, such as air quality forecasting. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Modelling and feedback control design for quantum state preparation

The goal of this article is to provide a largely self-contained introduction to the modelling of controlled quantum systems under continuous observation, and to the design of feedback controls that prepare particular quantum states. We describe a bottom-up approach, where a field-theoretic model is subjected to statistical inference and is ultimately controlled. As an example, the formalism is applied to a highly idealized interaction of an atomic ensemble with an optical field. Our aim is to provide a unified outline for the modelling, from first principles, of realistic experiments in quantum control

Multi-physics ensemble snow modelling in the western Himalaya

Combining multiple data sources with multi-physics simulation frameworks offers new potential to extend snow model inter-comparison efforts to the Himalaya. As such, this study evaluates the sensitivity of simulated regional snow cover and runoff dynamics to different snowpack process representations. The evaluation is based on a spatially distributed version of the Factorial Snowpack Model (FSM) set up for the Astore catchment in the upper Indus basin. The FSM multi-physics model was driven by climate fields from the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) dynamical downscaling product. Ensemble performance was evaluated primarily using MODIS remote sensing of snow-covered area, albedo and land surface temperature. In line with previous snow model inter-comparisons, no single FSM configuration performs best in all of the years simulated. However, the results demonstrate that performance variation in this case is at least partly related to inaccuracies in the sequencing of inter-annual variation in HAR climate inputs, not just FSM model limitations. Ensemble spread is dominated by interactions between parameterisations of albedo, snowpack hydrology and atmospheric stability effects on turbulent heat fluxes. The resulting ensemble structure is similar in different years, which leads to systematic divergence in ablation and mass balance at high elevations. While ensemble spread and errors are notably lower when viewed as anomalies, FSM configurations show important differences in their absolute sensitivity to climate variation. Comparison with observations suggests that a subset of the ensemble should be retained for climate change projections, namely those members including prognostic albedo and liquid water retention, refreezing and drainage processes

Modeling of Polymer Clay Nanocomposite for a Multiscale Approach

The mechanical property enhancement of polymer reinforced with nano-thin clay platelets (of high aspect ratio) is associated with a high polymer-filler interfacial area per unit volume. The ideal case of fully separated (exfoliated) platelets is generally difficult to achieve in practice: a typical nanocomposite also contains multilayer stacks of intercalated platelets. Here we use numerical modelling to investigate how the platelet properties affect the overall mechanical properties. The configuration of platelets is modelled using a statistical interpretation of the Representative Volume Element (RVE) approach, in which an ensemble of "sample" heterogeneous material is generated (with periodic boundary conditions). A simple Monte Carlo algorithm is used to place non-intersecting platelets in the RVE according to a specified set of statistical distributions. The effective stiffness of the platelet-matrix system is determined by measuring the stress (using standard Finite Element analysis) produced as a result of applying a small deformation to the boundaries, and averaging over the entire statistical ensemble. In this work we determine the way in which the platelet properties (curvature, filling fraction, stiffness, aspect ratio) and the number of layers in the stack affect the overall stiffness enhancement of the nanocomposite. Thus, we bridge the gap between behaviour on the macroscopic scale with that on the scale of the nano-reinforcement, forming part of a multi-scale modelling framework.Comment: 39 pages, 19 figure