Cross-comparative analysis of evacuation behavior after earthquakes using mobile phone data

Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of empirical evidence on the evacuation movement of individuals across multiple disaster instances. Here we investigate the GPS trajectories of a total of more than 1 million anonymized mobile phone users whose positions are tracked for a period of 2 months before and after four of the major earthquakes that occurred in Japan. Through a cross comparative analysis between the four disaster instances, we find that in contrast with the assumed complexity of evacuation decision making mechanisms in crisis situations, the individuals' evacuation probability is strongly dependent on the seismic intensity that they experience. In fact, we show that the evacuation probabilities in all earthquakes collapse into a similar pattern, with a critical threshold at around seismic intensity 5.5. This indicates that despite the diversity in the earthquakes profiles and urban characteristics, evacuation behavior is similarly dependent on seismic intensity. Moreover, we found that probability density functions of the distances that individuals evacuate are not dependent on seismic intensities that individuals experience. These insights from empirical analysis on evacuation from multiple earthquake instances using large scale mobility data contributes to a deeper understanding of how people react to earthquakes, and can potentially assist decision makers to simulate and predict the number of evacuees in urban areas with little computational time and cost, by using population density information and seismic intensity which can be observed instantaneously after the shock

Development Of Planning Support System For Urban Rehabilitation And Reconstruction In Case Sidoarjo Mud Flow Post Disaster

Sidoarjo mud disaster impact that has lasted more than 3 years are very influential on other aspects of life in Porong and surrounding areas. The need for information systems that can inform the public about the catastrophic conditions is absolutely necessary. In previous research has established a disaster management information system that is treated with the approach to Geographic Information Systems (GIS) consisting of the phases of mitigation, evacuation and warning his own. Mitigation system that was built covering the field of catastrophe risk modeling using network analysis, mapping mudguard embankment area, information about alternative routes and other public facilities information. Evacuation system provides information on areas that can be used as an evacuation site if a disaster occurs, such as health centers and referral hospitals and information about the stages of evacuation if the disaster occurs. Early warning system that allows agencies related to the Sidoarjo Mud Mitigation Agency (BPLS) provide information directly via WEB and SMS that can be accessed by the public via the WEB and SMS. Mitigation system that was built covering the field of catastrophe risk modeling using network analysis, mapping mudguard embankment area, information about alternative routes and other public facilities information. Evacuation system provides information on areas that can be used as an evacuation site if a disaster occurs, such as health centers and referral hospitals and information about the stages of evacuation if the disaster occurs. Early warning system that allows agencies related to the Sidoarjo Mud Mitigation Agency (BPLS) provide information directly via WEB and SMS that can be accessed by the public via the WEB and SMS. Mitigation system that was built covering the field of catastrophe risk modeling using network analysis, mapping mudguard embankment area, information about alternative routes and other public facilities information. Evacuation system provides information on areas that can be used as an evacuation site if a disaster occurs, such as health centers and referral hospitals and information about the stages of evacuation if the disaster occurs. Early warning system that allows agencies related to the Sidoarjo Mud Mitigation Agency (BPLS) provide information directly via WEB and SMS that can be accessed by the public via the WEB and SMS. The next stage is the stage of recovery. To that end, the research platform designed with integrated GIS Decision Systems (DSS) for regional development planning. Platform that includes a planned relocation of the transportation system and the relocation industry. Relocation of industrial zones by the method of analytical hierarchy process to produce recommendations relocate industrial park. Modeling facility relocation alternative transport route network transformation results

Intelligent evacuation management systems: A review

Crowd and evacuation management have been active areas of research and study in the recent past. Various developments continue to take place in the process of efficient evacuation of crowds in mass gatherings. This article is intended to provide a review of intelligent evacuation management systems covering the aspects of crowd monitoring, crowd disaster prediction, evacuation modelling, and evacuation path guidelines. Soft computing approaches play a vital role in the design and deployment of intelligent evacuation applications pertaining to crowd control management. While the review deals with video and nonvideo based aspects of crowd monitoring and crowd disaster prediction, evacuation techniques are reviewed via the theme of soft computing, along with a brief review on the evacuation navigation path. We believe that this review will assist researchers in developing reliable automated evacuation systems that will help in ensuring the safety of the evacuees especially during emergency evacuation scenarios

Deceleration in The Micro Traffic Model and Its Application to Simulation for Evacuation from Disaster Area

Referring to the Nagel–Schreckenberg’s (NaSch) model, we have studied the impact of agent and diligent driver into the micro traffic model in the case of evacuation. This study is attention to the deceleration that added in the micro traffic model. The effect of deceleration to simulation for evacuation from disaster area is considered. The traffic flow property is studied by analyzing the time-space diagram. The simulation results show that deceleration caused the evacuation time increases when we compare it by without deceleration

Cloud Enabled Emergency Navigation Using Faster-than-real-time Simulation

State-of-the-art emergency navigation approaches are designed to evacuate civilians during a disaster based on real-time decisions using a pre-defined algorithm and live sensory data. Hence, casualties caused by the poor decisions and guidance are only apparent at the end of the evacuation process and cannot then be remedied. Previous research shows that the performance of routing algorithms for evacuation purposes are sensitive to the initial distribution of evacuees, the occupancy levels, the type of disaster and its as well its locations. Thus an algorithm that performs well in one scenario may achieve bad results in another scenario. This problem is especially serious in heuristic-based routing algorithms for evacuees where results are affected by the choice of certain parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes a simulation-based evacuee routing algorithm that optimises evacuation by making use of the high computational power of cloud servers. Rather than guiding evacuees with a predetermined routing algorithm, a robust Cognitive Packet Network based algorithm is first evaluated via a cloud-based simulator in a faster-than-real-time manner, and any "simulated casualties" are then re-routed using a variant of Dijkstra's algorithm to obtain new safe paths for them to exits. This approach can be iterated as long as corrective action is still possible.Comment: Submitted to PerNEM'15 for revie

Konsep Pemodelan Transportasi Untuk Evakuasi Bencana

The increase of incidence of natural disasters over the past two decades, spawned many ideas about disaster risk reduction impacts both in terms of social and engineering, including in the field of transport evacuation. The rules of scientific developments in the field of transport modeling evacuation typically rely on natural disasters as well as the movement of traffic during the evacuation process. Concept model of transportation for evacuation is divided in two parts, the first focusing on the performance of the road network and the second on the behavior of individual refugees. Based model of transportation refugee behavior has the advantage that individual refugee can be added capabilities and knowledge of the evacuation; only in this concept study is very limited area coverage. Then the concept of performance based transportation model has the advantage of the road network can capture the phenomenon of the movement of traffic as a result of the evacuation on a large scale, in which the main results of simulation in the form of evacuation time and the identification of network vulnerability, only this model require accuracy in data collection, analysis and calibration process. The application of the concept of performance-based model of the road network in the case of disaster evacuation in Indonesia is very applicable at the level set evacuation routes, where the system optimized and user optimized is part of the scenario modeling to optimize its performance

MITIGASI DAN EVAKUASI BANJIR BENGAWAN SOLO BERBASIS SMS GATEWAY

In this study created a system of information handling and evacuation of flood disaster which is located in Bojonegoro-based SMS Gateway. This system provides information about the impact of flood disasters Solo against other aspects of life such as industry, education, and social life. Given the expected data obtained information as a consideration in taking action in the event and post-disaster flood of floods. Because of this disaster based sms handler, then use the appropriate technology that is programming python as a desktop application, PostGIS PostgreSQL database as well as data storage. Submission of information is expected based SMSGateway data is processed more quickly in terms of disseminating information to the public. This information is used for early warning dissemination Solo Flood disaster. Keywords: Mitigation and Evacuation, Flood Solo, SMSGateway