Depression and suicide risk prediction models using blood-derived multi-omics data

More than 300 million people worldwide experience depression; annually, ~800,000 people die by suicide. Unfortunately, conventional interview-based diagnosis is insufficient to accurately predict a psychiatric status. We developed machine learning models to predict depression and suicide risk using blood methylome and transcriptome data from 56 suicide attempters (SAs), 39 patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), and 87 healthy controls. Our random forest classifiers showed accuracies of 92.6% in distinguishing SAs from MDD patients, 87.3% in distinguishing MDD patients from controls, and 86.7% in distinguishing SAs from controls. We also developed regression models for predicting psychiatric scales with R2 values of 0.961 and 0.943 for Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression???17 and Scale for Suicide Ideation, respectively. Multi-omics data were used to construct psychiatric status prediction models for improved mental health treatment

Assimilating SAR-derived water level data into a hydraulic model: a case study

Satellite-based active microwave sensors not only provide synoptic overviews of flooded areas, but also offer an effective way to estimate spatially distributed river water levels. If rapidly produced and processed, these data can be used for updating hydraulic models in near real-time. The usefulness of such approaches with real event data sets provided by currently existing sensors has yet to be demonstrated. In this case study, a Particle Filter-based assimilation scheme is used to integrate ERS-2 SAR and ENVISAT ASAR-derived water level data into a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model of the Alzette River. Two variants of the Particle Filter assimilation scheme are proposed with a global and local particle weighting procedure. The first option finds the best water stage line across all cross sections, while the second option finds the best solution at individual cross sections. The variant that is to be preferred depends on the level of confidence that is attributed to the observations or to the model. The results show that the Particle Filter-based assimilation of remote sensing-derived water elevation data provides a significant reduction in the uncertainty at the analysis step. Moreover, it is shown that the periodical updating of hydraulic models through the proposed assimilation scheme leads to an improvement of model predictions over several time steps. However, the performance of the assimilation depends on the skill of the hydraulic model and the quality of the observation data

Distances of CVs and related objects derived from Gaia Data Release 1

We consider the parallaxes of sixteen cataclysmic variables and related objects that are included in the TGAS catalogue, which is part of the Gaia first data release, and compare these with previous parallax measurements. The parallax of the dwarf nova SS Cyg is consistent with the parallax determination made using the VLBI, but with only one of the analyses of the HST Fine Guidance Sensor (FGS) observations of this system. In contrast, the Gaia parallaxes of V603 Aql and RR Pic are broadly consistent, but less precise than the HST/FGS measurements. The Gaia parallaxes of IX Vel, V3885 Sgr, and AE Aqr are consistent with, but much more accurate than the Hipparcos measurements. We take the derived Gaia distances and find that absolute magnitudes of outbursting systems show a weak correlation with orbital period. For systems with measured X-ray fluxes we find that the X-ray luminosity is a clear indicator of whether the accretion disc is in the hot and ionised or cool and neutral state. We also find evidence for the X-ray emission of both low and high state discs correlating with orbital period, and hence the long-term average accretion rate. The inferred mass accretion rates for the nova-like variables and dwarf novae are compared with the critical mass accretion rate predicted by the Disk Instability Model. While we find agreement to be good for most systems there appears to be some uncertainty in the system parameters of SS Cyg. Our results illustrate how future Gaia data releases will be an extremely valuable resource in mapping the evolution of cataclysmic variables.Comment: Accepted by A&

Empirically Derived Suitability Maps to Downscale Aggregated Land Use Data

Understanding mechanisms that drive present land use patterns is essential in order to derive appropriate models of land use change. When static analyses of land use drivers are performed, they rarely explicitly deal with spatial autocorrelation. Most studies are undertaken on autocorrelation-free data samples. By doing this, a great deal of information that is present in the dataset is lost. This paper presents a spatially explicit, cross-sectional, logistic analysis of land use drivers in Belgium. It is shown that purely regressive logistic models can only identify trends or global relationships between socio-economic or physico-climatic drivers and the precise location of each land use type. However, when the goal of a study is to obtain the best model of land use distribution, a purely autoregressive (or neighbourhood-based) model is appropriate. Moreover, it is also concluded that a neighbourhood based only on the 8 surrounding cells leads to the best logistic regression models at this scale of observation. This statement is valid for each land use type studied – i.e. built-up, forests, cropland and grassland.

On the Influence of the Data Sampling Interval on Computer-Derived K-Indices

The K index was devised by Bartels et al. (1939) to provide an objective monitoring of irregular geomagnetic activity. The K index was then routinely used to monitor the magnetic activity at permanent magnetic observatories as well as at temporary stations. The increasing number of digital and sometimes unmanned observatories and the creation of INTERMAGNET put the question of computer production of K at the centre of the debate. Four algorithms were selected during the Vienna meeting (1991) and endorsed by IAGA for the computer production of K indices. We used one of them (FMI algorithm) to investigate the impact of the geomagnetic data sampling interval on computer produced K values through the comparison of the computer derived K values for the period 2009, January 1st to 2010, May 31st at the Port-aux-Francais magnetic observatory using magnetic data series with different sampling rates (the smaller: 1 second; the larger: 1 minute). The impact is investigated on both 3-hour range values and K indices data series, as a function of the activity level for low and moderate geomagnetic activity