Digital Media and Youth: Unparalleled Opportunity and Unprecedented Responsibility

Part of the Volume on Digital Media, Youth, and Credibility This chapter argues that understanding credibility is particularly complex -- and consequential -- in the digital media environment, especially for youth audiences, who have both advantages and disadvantages due to their relationship with contemporary technologies and their life experience. The chapter explains what is, and what is not, new about credibility in the context of digital media, and discusses the major thrusts of current credibility concerns for scholars, educators, and youth

Inflation Persistance and Credibility in Turkey During the Nineties

This study assesses the credibility of disinflation programs in Turkey during the nineties, where several programs of reform took place. We investigate the credibility of these policies building on a previous research made by Agenor and Taylor (1993). The model is based on two assumptions: (i) inflation is a serially correlated process; (ii) the definition of a proxy that is able to measure the degree of credibility of a programme. The empirical results show that there was a sharp loss of credibility at the end of the 1991 and at the beginning of the 1994 and during the Asian crisis. The Program that the Central Bank implemented after the crisis was able to increase the level of credibility of the CBRT policies. Loss of credibility is registered during the end of the 1995, while various political events took place and during the 1997 following the world economic conditions and the outflow of capitals

College Students' Credibility Judgments in the Information-Seeking Process

Part of the Volume on Digital Media, Youth, and CredibilityThis chapter presents an in-depth exploration of how college students identify credible information in everyday information-seeking tasks. The authors find that credibility assessment is an over-time process rather than a discrete evaluative event. Moreover, the context in which credibility assessment occurs is crucial to understand because it affects both the level of effort as well as the strategies that people use to evaluate credibility. College students indicate that although credibility was an important consideration during information seeking, they often compromised information credibility for speed and convenience, especially when the information sought was less consequential

Endogenous Central Bank Credibility in a Small Forward-Looking Model of the U.S. Economy

The linkages between inflation and the economy's cyclical position are thought to be strongly affected by the credibility of monetary authorities. The author complements existing research by estimating a small forward-looking model of the U.S. economy with endogenous central bank credibility. His work differs from the existing literature in several ways. First, he endogenizes and estimates credibility parameters, allowing inflation expectations to be a mix of backward- and forward-looking agents. Second, his models include both outcome- and action-based credibility. Third, he estimates a non-linear relation between policy credibility and divergences of inflation from target, which is also assumed to change over history. Finally, the author's non-linear time-varying credibility indexes do not rely on a two-regime definition, but on a continuum of credibility regimes. The author finds strong, stable, and statistically significant outcome- and action-credibility effects that generate important inflation inertia. According to his results, the value of the endogenous credibility indexes has risen steadily across the different monetary policy regimes.Transmission of monetary policy; Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices

Bayesian Credibility for GLMs

We revisit the classical credibility results of Jewell and B\"uhlmann to obtain credibility premiums for a GLM using a modern Bayesian approach. Here the prior distributions can be chosen without restrictions to be conjugate to the response distribution. It can even come from out-of-sample information if the actuary prefers. Then we use the relative entropy between the "true" and the estimated models as a loss function, without restricting credibility premiums to be linear. A numerical illustration on real data shows the feasibility of the approach, now that computing power is cheap, and simulations software readily available

Dimensions of web site credibility and their relation to active trust and behavioural impact

This paper discusses two trends that threaten to undermine the effectiveness of online social marketing interventions: growing mistrust and competition. As a solution, this paper examines the relationships between Web site credibility, target audiences’ active trust and behaviour. Using structural equation modelling to evaluate two credibility models, this study concludes that Web site credibility is best considered a three-dimensional construct composed of expertise, trustworthiness and visual appeal, and that trust plays a partial mediating role between Web site credibility and behavioural impacts. The paper examines theoretical implications of conceptualizing Web sites according to a human credibility model, and factoring trust into Internet-based behavioural change interventions. Practical guidelines suggest ways to address these findings when planning online social marketing interventions

Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria

We use unique survey data from Bulgaria’s currency board to examine the reasons for persistent incomplete credibility of a financial stabilization regime. Although it produced remarkably positive effects in terms of sustained low inflation since 1997, the currency board has not achieved full credibility. This is not uncommon in other less-developed countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. Our results reveal that incomplete credibility is explained primarily by concerns about external economic shocks and the persistent high unemployment in the country. Past experiences with high inflation do not rank among the top reasons to expect financial instability in the future.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40091/3/wp705.pd

The Simplest Test of Inflation Target Credibility

A simple test of inflation target credibility is constructed by subtracting the maximum and minimum inflation rates consistent with the inflation targets from the yields to maturity on nominal bonds. This results in a target-consistent range of real yields on nominal bonds. If expected real yields, or market real interest rates on real bonds if such are available, fall outside the range of target- consistent real yields, credibility is rejected. Two concepts of credibility, called absolute credibility and credibility in expectation, are distinguished. The inflation targets of Canada, New Zealand and Sweden are examined with convenient diagrams over yields to maturity and forward interest rates.

Understanding the construction of marketers’ credibility by NZ senior managers: An interpretive study

Academics report that marketers are losing their influence in the boardroom due in part to serious challenges to marketing’s credibility. Although the credibility of marketing sources has received much attention since the early 1950s, research into how individuals in business organisations construct the credibility of marketers is scarce. This study, using in-depth interviews, describes how seven senior managers from different New Zealand businesses construct the credibility of marketers. For these senior managers, the credibility of marketers is grounded in their performance in delivering commercial outcomes. The findings also suggest that senior managers construct credibility in terms of a work aspect and a social aspect of a marketer’s performance, and that both these aspects have to be present if the marketer is to be considered credible. The work aspect of performance is made up of a marketer’s Pedigree, Projects, and Pervasive Influence. The Pedigree of a marketer includes their qualifications, skills and background. A degree is usually the minimum qualification required, particularly for more senior marketing roles. Skills expected from marketers include leadership, management, sales and intuition. With regard to background, the marketer needs to demonstrate they have achieved commercial outcomes in previous employment to be considered credible. Projects describes how marketers must design and implement cogent marketing plans, work effectively without supervision, achieve commercial outcomes in a clever or creative way, and provide evidence that their projects have contributed to commercial outcomes. Pervasive Influence describes how marketers influence others in the organisation toward customer-centricity. Marketers can lose credibility in the work aspect of their performance when they have no structured purpose to their marketing research, are unable to execute marketing plans or are unable to demonstrate the results of a marketing project. The social aspect of a marketer’s performance is made up of Personal Integrity and Professional Conduct. Personal Integrity describes marketers who are respected, take pride in their work, strive to improve themselves and are not precious. Professional Conduct describes a marketer who relates and collaborates competently and professionally with others, and is a team fit. Marketers lose credibility in the social aspect of their performance when they are precious, flighty, argumentative, and only out for themselves. This paper contributes a framework that describes the construction of a marketer’s credibility from a senior manager’s perspective. It also introduces a new understanding of credibility, grounded in performance terms, which is distinct from past conceptualisations of credibility found in the literature, which is based on expertise and trustworthiness. These findings demonstrate that while a marketer might be considered an expert and trustworthy, if they are not delivering commercial outcomes then they may not be considered credible, from a senior manager’s perspective

Paradox of Credibility

In an information transmission situation, a senders concern for its credibility could endow itself with an invisible power to control the detected. In this case, the sender can achieve its favored outcome without losing its credibility, which stays true even when the sender and the receiver have contradictory preferences. Therefore, the senders concern for its credibility could result in less truthful signals from the sender and worse payoffs to the receiver. This is the paradox of credibility. This paper models this paradoxical role of the senders credibility concern.Anti-Coordination Game, Credibility, Information Transmission, Hawk-Dove Game, Paradox