How Well Does "Core" CPI Capture Permanent Price Changes?

We decompose core CPI and the food and energy CPI measures into permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components model, to examine the behavior of core CPI when subject to shocks and to examine the claim that core CPI captures the persistent part of headline CPI. We find that the permanent component of core CPI is more volatile than core CPI, or that the permanent and transitory components are highly correlated. We find that the excluded food and energy components have important permanent components, and that core CPI has an important transitory component. We examine impulse response functions and find that headline CPI inflation responds more sharply to shocks than core CPI inflation, and after the first year the impact of shocks on headline inflation is less than the impact on core inflation.unobserved components, CPI, price indices, inflation, core

Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia

To measure real income growth over time a price index is needed to adjust for changes in the cost of living. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is often used for this task but studies from several countries show the CPI is a biased measure of changes in the cost of living, leading to potentially wrong estimates of the rate of growth of real income. In this paper CPI bias for Indonesia is calculated by estimating food Engel curves for households with the same level of CPI-deflated incomes at four different points in time between 1993 and 2008. The results suggest CPI bias was initially negative during the Asian Crisis but has been positive since 2000. Over the entire period, CPI bias has averaged four percent annually, equivalent to almost one-third of the measured inflation rate

Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustments

To compensate for the effects of inflation, Social Security recipients usually receive an annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). Benefits will be increased by 1.7% in 2015, following an increase of 1.5% in 2014. Social Security COLAs are based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), updated monthly by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The COLA equals the growth, if any, in the index from the highest third calendar quarter average CPI-W recorded (most often, from the previous year) to the average CPI-W for the third calendar quarter of the current year. The COLA becomes effective in December of the current year and is payable in January of the following year. (Social Security payments always reflect the benefits due for the preceding month.) If there is no percentage increase in the CPI-W between the measuring periods, no COLA is payable. No COLA was payable in January 2010 because the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2009 did not increase from the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008, and again in 2011 because the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2010 remained below the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2008. When the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2011 exceeded that for 2008, establishing a new benchmark, a COLA was payable in 2012. Because the average CPI-W for the third quarters of 2012 and 2013 exceeded the average CPI-W for the third quarters of each respective preceding year, 2014 will be the third consecutive year in which a COLA will be paid. Because a COLA of 1.7% will be paid to Social Security beneficiaries in 2015, identical percentage increases in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and railroad retirement “tier 1” benefits will be paid, and other changes in the Social Security program will be triggered. Although COLAs under the federal Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and the federal military retirement program are not triggered directly by the Social Security COLA, these programs use the same measuring period and formula for computing their COLAs. As a result, their recipients similarly will receive a 1.7% COLA in January 2015. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the trustees for the Social Security trust funds both project annual COLAs beyond 2015. This report is updated annually

The Chained CPI: A Painful Cut in Social Security Benefits and a Stealth Tax Hike

In the debate over federal budget deficits, several politicians have proposed to change the formulas that determine benefit levels for Social Security and other government programs as well as income tax brackets. Switching to a relatively new formula, the Chained CPI, would help the federal government save money by slowing increases in benefits and raising additional tax revenue. Proponents of this proposal argue that the Chained CPI is a more accurate formula and any impact on beneficiaries of the government programs affected would be mitigated by increased tax revenue from the wealthy. However, this issue brief effectively refutes those arguments by showing that switching to the Chained CPI would result in cuts to already modest Social Security benefits, that it is likely that the Chained CPI is not an accurate measure of the inflation rate seen by seniors and that the Chained CPI would lead to income tax increases for working Americans

Influence of corruption on economic growth rate and foreign investments

In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in the world, we find that an increase of CPI by one unit leads to an increase of the annual GDP per capita by 1.7 %. By regressing only European transition countries, we find that $\Delta$CPI = 1 generates increase of the annual GDP per capita by 2.4 %. We also analyze the relation between foreign direct investments received by different countries and CPI, and we find a statistically significant power-law functional dependence between foreign direct investment per capita and the country corruption level measured by the CPI. We introduce a new measure to quantify the relative corruption between countries based on their respective wealth as measured by GDP per capita.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, elsart styl

Consumer Price Index Data Quality: How Accurate is the U.S. CPI?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an estimate of the average change in prices over time paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and n the United States. The CPI is used extensively in many different ways, including three major uses: to adjust historical data, to escalate federal payments and tax brackets, and to adjust rents and wages. It directly affects the lives of Americans, so it must be as accurate as possible. But how accurate is it? If, for example, the CPI measures annual inflation as 2.3 percent, how confident can we be in that estimate? This issue of BEYOND THE NUMBERS looks at some different ways the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has responded to questions about the accuracy and precision of the CPI. The first section examines the sampling error of the CPI, and the second section discusses possible sources of bias in the index

Inflation-Indexing Elements in Federal Entitlement Programs

[Excerpt] In recent years, various proposals have been discussed in the context of ways to reduce federal budget deficits. One of the proposals, for example, is the use of a different measure of consumer price change to index various provisions of federal programs, including cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs). For example, under current law, the Social Security COLA is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Under the proposal, the Social Security COLA would be based instead on the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (Chained CPI-U or C-CPI-U). Because the goal of the Chained CPI-U is to better reflect how consumers change their buying habits in response to changes in prices, supporters of the proposal argue that it is a more accurate measure for computing COLAs and making other automatic program adjustments. Opponents, however, view the proposal as a backdoor way of reducing benefits because the Chained CPI-U typically has risen more slowly than either the CPI-W or the traditional CPI-U. Some observers point out that the Chained CPI-U is published as a preliminary value that is subject to revision over a period of up to two years, and that it may not accurately reflect the cost of living for certain groups, such as the elderly population. The current discussion of a potential change in the way the Social Security COLA is computed raises questions about indexing in other federal entitlement programs. The purpose of this report is to identify key indexing elements in major federal entitlement programs under current law and present the information in a summary table. As shown here, indexing affects more than benefit levels paid to individuals through COLAs. Indexing also affects, for example, federal payments to providers and eligibility criteria for some programs. In addition, the report provides a brief description of the measures of consumer price change used to index various elements of these programs under current law, as well as the alternative measure of consumer price change (the Chained CPI-U) that has been proposed for computing Social Security COLAs and making inflation adjustments to other federal programs

Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan

The paper probed the impact of supply of money on food and general price indices by estimating a series of equations taking CPI food, CPI general, WPI food, WPI general, GDP deflator and SPI as measures of inflation and M1, M2 and M3 supply of money as explanatory variables. For analysis, OLS technique is used covering time series data for the years 1975-76 to 2006-07 that was made stationary by Durbin-Watson criterion. AR (1) is used to check autocorrelation. The results for CPI food, CPI general, WPI general, GDP deflator and SPI show that they are negatively related with M1 supply of money. CPI food, CPI general, WPI general, GDP deflator, and SPI are also negatively related with M2 supply of money. The results show that CPI food, CPI general, WPI general, GDP deflator and SPI are positively related with M3 supply of money. It may be concluded that supply of money M1 and M2 affects the food and general indices in the same way. However, M1 supply of money affects the CPI general strongly than CPI food.Inflation, Money supply, Consumer Price Index, Food prices, Sensitive Price Indicator.

Core, What is it Good For? Why the Bank of Canada Should Focus on Headline Inflation

With inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growing faster than the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent target, the Bank has pointed out that core CPI, which excludes items whose prices are especially volatile, is at or below target and, further, that the Bank anticipates total CPI eventually will converge with the core measure. While the Bank is certainly justified in using core CPI as one of many imperfect measures of underlying inflation, our results suggest that the Bank should, at a minimum, revisit the role of core within its inflation-targeting framework and consider de-emphasizing core CPI in its communications or as an operational guide.Monetary Policy, Bank of Canada, inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI), core CPI