The Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics, DSGE and the Theory of Policy - Computable & Constructive Foundations

The genesis and the path towards what has come to be called the DSGE model is traced, from its origins in the Arrow-Debreu General Equilibrium model (ADGE), via Scarf's Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) and its applied version as Applied Computable General Equilibrium model (ACGE), to its ostensible dynamization as a Recursive Competitive Equilibrium (RCE). It is shown that these transformations of the ADGE - including the fountainhead - are computably and constructively untenable. The policy implications of these (negative) results, via the Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics in particular, and against the backdrop of the mathematical theory of economic policy in general, are also discussed (again from computable and constructive points of view). Suggestions for going 'beyond DSGE' are, then, outlined on the basis of a framework that is underpinned - from the outset - by computability and constructivity considerationsComputable General Equilibrium, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, Computability, Constructivity, Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics, Theory of Policy, Coupled Nonlinear Dynamic

Prototype Specification for a Real Computable General Equilibrium Model

This document presents a prototype specification for a real computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The prototype has some key features for assessing structural and poverty impacts:computable general equilibrium, prototype

A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa

"The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled using national accounts information and recently released supply-use tables. By updating to a recent year, and by distinguishing between producers and commodities, this SAM is an improvement on the existing SAM databases for South Africa. Furthermore, this SAM is made consistent with the requirements of IFPRI's standard comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is then used to simulate the economy-wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy levers, including: increased government spending; the elimination of tariff barriers; and an improvement in total factor productivity. Results indicate that assumptions made regarding the mechanisms of macroeconomic adjustment are important in determining the expected impacts of these policies. Firstly, despite mixed results concerning changes in household income distribution, the impact of expansionary fiscal policy appears to be growth enhancing, with the Keynesian style adjustment mechanism producing the most positive results. Secondly, a complete abolition of import tariffs also appears to generate increases in gross domestic product, with negative and positive consequences for aggregate manufacturing and services respectively. Finally, an increase in total factor productivity is growth enhancing, with the most positive results derived under neoclassical assumptions of the macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms. These simulations are meant to demonstrate the usefulness for economy-wide policy modelling and the paper concludes by highlighting areas of policy analysis that might benefit from more detailed applications with this framework." Author's Abstract.Computable general equilibrium (CGE) ,

AGEFIS:Applied General Equilibrium for FIScal Policy Analysis

AGEFIS (Applied General Equilibrium model for FIScal Policy Analysis) is a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model designed specifically, but not limited, to analyze various aspects of fiscal policies in Indonesia. It is yet, the first Indonesian fully-SAM-based CGE model solved by Gempack. This paper describes the structure of the model and illustrates its application.AGEFIS, CGE, Fiscal Policy, Indonesia

Multicriteria Policy Making. Defining Efficient Policies in a General Equilibrium Model

We propose to model policy making as a multicriteria problem and solve it using suitable multicriteria techniques in connection with some structural economic model to represent optimal policy making and to get useful policy recommendations. By using a multiobjective approach combined with a Computable General Equilibrium model, we propose the concept of efficient policy and calculate the set of efficient policies for the Spanish economy in an empirical exercise. This approach allows us to quantify the trade-off between growth and inflation, to measure the efficiency of the actually applied fiscal policy and to get some plausible modifications that could foster policy efficiency in practice.Public Policy, Multicriteria Decision Making, Efficient Frontier, Computable General Equilibrium Model.

Philippine Computable General Equilibrium Model (PCGEM)

This paper discusses the structure of the Philippine computable general equilibrium model (PCGEM). The model is a medium-sized CGE model of the Philippine economy. It disaggregates the production sector into 34 sectors. It incorporates 3 types of factor inputs; labor, variable capital and capital. The household sector is grouped in decile. Production differentiation is introduced in imports and exports. PCGEM is a neoclassical CGE model, with price clearing mechanisms. Furthermore, it is a full employment model. At its present state, the model is closed with fixed current account balance, fixed exchange rate (the numeriare), and endogenous PINDEX, which is the weighted value added price (or the GDP deflator). Also, savings go back into the system in the form of investments. The model is static and calibrated using the 1990 social accounting matrix and the 1990 sectoral tariff revenue. PCGEM is coded in a software called General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS)

The Dynamic Cost of Draft

We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital accumulation to evaluate the economic consequences of compulsory services (such as military draft or social services). Our analysis identifies a so far ignored dynamic cost arising from distortions in time allocation over the life-cycle. We provide conservative estimates for the excess burden that arises when the government relies on forced labor rather than on income taxation to finance public expenditures. Our results suggest that eliminating the draft could produce considerable dynamic gains, both in terms of GDP and lifetime utility. Keywords: Conscription; Draft; Time Allocation; Distortionary Taxation; Computable General Equilibrium Models JEL Codes: H20, H57, J22, C68Conscription, Draft, Time Allocation, Distortionary Taxation, Computable General Equilibrium Models

MORE RESERVOIRS OR TRANSFERS? A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF PROJECTED WATER SHORTAGES IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

A computable general equilibrium model of the southeastern Colorado economy is used to compare the economic impacts of a proposed increase in reservoir storage to an alternative: temporary water transfers. While both provide municipalities with reliable water supply during droughts and are shown to benefit both rural and urban communities, temporary transfers are accomplished at a much lower economic and environmental cost. This analysis illustrates how computable general equilibrium models provide a more realistic portrayal of the impact of policy changes than input-output analysis by allowing substitution in response to economic conditions.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Armington Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model: A Database Consistent Approach

Substitution elasticities in policy-oriented computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are key parameters for model results since they determine behaviour in these models. As Dawkins et al. (2001) observe, the current situation with regard to the elasticities available for use in these models is poor. We focus on an important type of elasticity that is widely used in CGE models with international trade: the so-called ‘Armington’ elasticities (Armington, 1969). These elasticities are well known for their critical role in determining model results. We present an alternative approach to quantifying Armington elasticities which is consistent across historical databases. The approach is used to derive elasticities from successive databases of a commonly-used global CGE model, the GTAP model.Armington assumption, computable general equilibrium models, estimating Armington paprmeters