Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems: A Grounded Theory Approach

The article of record as published may be found at http://groundedtheoryreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/06-Johnson-Complex-GTR_Dec_2018.pdfThis paper details the classic grounded theory approach used in a research project to develop a conceptual theory for an engineering solution to address highly complex problems. Highly complex problem domains exist and are on the rise as we enter an Age of Interactions and Complexity. Our current world has been characterized by the plethora and ubiquity of information and global interconnections that link events and decisions to outcomes and effects that are often unpredictable and result in severe unforeseen and unintended consequences. Technological advances such as computers, the internet, Big Data, social media, artificial intelligence, and communication networks have expanded complex problem spaces. However, these same technologies present an opportunity to engineer a complex adaptive system of systems solution to address these challenging problems. This research project embarked on a classic grounded theory approach to study a number of knowledge domains and engineering processes, allowing a conceptual theory to emerge that offers an engineering solution to address highly complex problems. The project resulted in the emergence of a theory for a new class of engineered CASoS solutions. This paper details the classic grounded theory approach taken to conduct the research

A Socio-technical Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructures among the Built Environment, Energy, and Transportation Systems at the Navy Yard and the Philadelphia Metropolitan Region, USA

This paper reports on a research initiative that explores the interdependencies of the system of systems — the built environment, energy, and transportation — related to the redevelopment of The Navy Yard in Philadelphia and the Philadelphia Metropolitan Region. The overarching goal of the project is a clearer understanding of the dynamics of multi-scale interactions and interdependencies of systems of sociotechnical systems that will be useful to system practitioners. The understanding and the subsequent planning and design of sociotechnical systems are “wicked” problems and one characteristic is there is no definitive formulation. One of the main findings or lessons learned of the work reported for the understanding of interdependencies of infrastructure is the identification of what are the problems or challenges because for wicked problems “[t]he formulation of the problem is the problem!” We find that systems practitioners have an overarching concern of a fragmented regional policy and decision making process. Four main themes of 1. Vulnerability of aging infrastructure, 2. Integration of emerging technology into existing infrastructure, 3. Lifestyle and value changes, and 4. Financial innovations were identified as challenges. Continuing research work explores three possible infrastructure projects for further study as well as the development of a high-level systems of systems model. The principle outcome is the initiation of a planning process so that the system practitioners will learn to better understand the connections among related sociotechnical systems and the constellation of problems they face not within their immediate scope of responsibility yet influences the operations of their systems

Phoenix : Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) engineering version 1.0.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Perturbations/disruptions in CASoS have the potential for far-reaching effects due to pervasive interdependencies and attendant vulnerabilities to cascades in associated systems. Phoenix was initiated to address this high-impact problem space as engineers. Our overarching goals are maximizing security, maximizing health, and minimizing risk. We design interventions, or problem solutions, that influence CASoS to achieve specific aspirations. Through application to real-world problems, Phoenix is evolving the principles and discipline of CASoS Engineering while growing a community of practice and the CASoS engineers to populate it. Both grounded in reality and working to extend our understanding and control of that reality, Phoenix is at the same time a solution within a CASoS and a CASoS itself

Leveraging AI in Support of Decision Superiority – Enabling AI, a System of Systems Approach

NPS NRP Executive SummaryLeveraging AI in Support of Decision Superiority – Enabling AI, a System of Systems ApproachN2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

An Investigation of the Role of System Effectiveness in the Acquisition and Sustainment of U.S. Defense Systems: 1958 to 2021

Excerpt from the Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Acquisition Research SymposiumThis paper addresses the system effectiveness methodology and its intended role in acquiring and sustaining U.S. military weapon systems from 1958 to 2021. Given the prolonged period covered by this study and the many changes to the acquisition process, it would be reasonable to expect the methodology to change and adapt, and the study supports this assumption. The study uses the innovative approach of applying three qualitative methods: a structured review of the literature related to system effectiveness, a grounded theory analysis of the structured literature review, and a historiography of the initial grounded theory results. The research identifies five epochs, each marked by changes in the acquisition guidance. The conclusions are fourfold. First, the role of system effectiveness today is vastly diminished from its original purpose because the original material was not widely accessible to the community of interest during the formative years. The grounded theory result was that the concept was never allowed to mature because of changes that marked the second epoch's advent. Second, analysis of source documents provides insight into how to correct past misconceptions and incorporate system effectiveness into modern engineering. Third, the models developed in epoch one may have relevance for today's problems.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Chapter 3. Modeling and Risk Analysis of Information Sharing in the Financial Infrastructure

Abstract: This chapter defines the community of banks as a Complex Adaptive System of Systems or CASoS and analyzes the value of information sharing as a general policy to protect the community against cyber attacks. We develop a model of interacting banks that have networks of business relations with a possible overlay network of shared information for cyber security. If a bank suffers a cyber attack it incurs losses and there is some probability that its infection will spread through the business network, imposing costs on its neighbors. Losses arising from financial system compromise continue until the problem is detected and remediated. The information sharing system allows detection events to be broadcast, and also increases the probability of detecting the experimental probes that might precede the actual attack. Shared information is a public good: one institution's agreeing to share information speeds responses at other institutions, reducing their probability of initial compromise. Information sharing participation carries with it costs which need to be balanced by direct expected gain or to be subsidized in order to have a critical number of banks to agree to share information and to discourage free riding. The analysis described in this chapter examines the incentives motivating banks to participate in information sharing, the benefits to the financial system that arise from their participation, and the ways banks ’ incentives might be shaped by policy to achieve a beneficial outcome for th

Photonics for Smart Cities

We review the current applications of photonic technologies to Smart Cities. Inspired by the future needs of Smart Cities, we then propose potential applications of advanced photonic technologies. We find that photonics already has a major impact on Smart Cities, in terms of smart lighting, sensing, and communication technologies. We further find that advanced photonic technologies could lead to vastly improved infrastructure, such as smart water‐supply systems. We conclude by proposing directions for future research that will have the greatest impact on realizing Smart City initiatives