Linking climate change, rice yield, and migration: the Philippine experience

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its rice productivity impacts, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Results show that climate change effects such as increasing night time temperature and extreme rainfall pattern, by way of reduction in rice yield and farm revenues, significantly increases the number of Overseas Filipino Workers. Findings also show that overseas migration of female workers is more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. However, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues act as a constraint to domestic migration

Migration patterns under different scenarios of sea level rise

We propose a framework to examine future migration patterns of people under different sea level rise scenarios using models of human migration. Specifically, we couple a sea level rise model with a data-driven model of human migration, creating a generalized joint model of climate driven migration that can be used to simulate population distributions under potential future sea level rise scenarios. We show how this joint model relaxes assumptions in existing efforts to model climate driven human migration, and use it to simulate how migration, driven by sea level rise, differs from baseline migration patterns. Our results show that the effects of sea level rise are pervasive, expanding beyond coastal areas via increased migration, and disproportionately affecting some areas of the United States. The code for reproducing this study is available at https://github.com/calebrob6/migration-slr.Comment: In submission to PLOS On

Climate Change and Migration: The Intersection of Climate Change, Migration, and Gender through Policy

This article explores the intersectional nature of the issue of climate change, especially as it relates to migration. Both migration and climate change are issues of global significance, with benefits and burdens distributed unevenly across gender, racial, and class lines. This intersectional approach takes note of the unequal power structures at play when attempting to combat these issues with policy

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future

Difficult decisions: Migration from Small Island Developing States under climate change

The impacts of climate change on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are leading to discussions regarding decision-making about the potential need to migrate. Despite the situation being well-documented, with many SIDS aiming to raise the topic to prominence and to take action for them-selves, limited support and interest has been forthcoming from external sources. This paper presents, analyzes, and critiques a decision-making flowchart to support actions for SIDS dealing with climate change-linked migration. The flowchart contributes to identifying the pertinent topics to consider and the potential support needed to implement decision-making. The flowchart has significant limitations and there are topics which it cannot resolve. On-the ground considerations include who decides, finances, implements, monitors, and enforces each decision. Additionally, views within communities differ, hence mechanisms are needed for dealing with differences, while issues to address include moral and legal blame for any climate change-linked migration, the ultimate goal of the decision-making process, the wider role of migration in SIDS communities and the right to judge decision-making and decisions. The conclusions summarize the paper, emphasizing the importance of considering contexts beyond climate change and multiple SIDS voices

Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict: Addressing Complex Crisis Scenarios in the 21st Century

Outlines how climate change, migration, and conflict intersect in Africa, Asia, and the Americas and implications for national, human, and environmental security. Recommends policy for boosting capacity in economic, social, and environmental development

Environmental change and migration: implications for Australia

This paper argues that Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration, as climate change and natural disasters could displace potentially  thousands of people in coming years. In the Pacific Islands region, climate change and natural disasters could displace potentially  thousands of people in coming years.  A significant number of these people could end up as environmental migrants to Australia.  This paper argues that Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration to manage the new flow of migrants in ways that maximise the benefits, but also minimise the costs to the country, including any increase in irregular migration. Key points: It is likely that an increased number of migrants will arrive in Australia during the next decade as a result of the effects of environmental change in Pacific Island countries. Even if the scale of any environmental migration to Australia can be reduced by supporting adaptation to environmental change in the affected countries, some migration to Australia from the Pacific Island is still likely to occur. Australia needs a national policy framework on environmental migration that includes continuing support for multilateral initiatives on environmental migration, capacity-building in origin and transit countries, and national legislation that leverages existing labour migration programs and targets a limited number of countries

Accommodating migration to promote adaptation to climate change

This paper explains how climate change may increase future migration, and which risks are associated with such migration. It also examines how some of this migration may enhance the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to result in some increase above baseline rates of migration in the next 40 years. Most of this migration will occur within developing countries. There is little reason to think that such migration will increase the risk of violent conflict. Not all movements in response to climate change will have negative outcomes for the people that move, or the places they come from and go to. Migration, a proven development strategy, can increase the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change. The fewer choices people have about moving, however, the less likely it is that the outcomes of that movement will be positive. Involuntary resettlement should be a last resort. Many of the most dire risks arising from climate-motivated migration can be avoided through careful policy. Policy responses to minimize the risks associated with migration in response to climate change, and to maximize migration’s contribution to adaptive capacity include: ensuring that migrants have the same rights and opportunities as host communities; reducing the costs of moving money and people between areas of origin and destination; facilitating mutual understanding among migrants and host communities; clarifying property rights where they are contested; ensuring that efforts to assist migrants include host communities; and strengthening regional and international emergency response systems.Population Policies,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Climate Change Economics,Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement

Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict in Northwest Africa

Examines how climate change affects the number of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa traveling through Nigeria, Niger, Algeria, and Morocco; increased security risks in the region; how these factors exacerbate one another; and intercontinental implications