The European way out of recession

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.Threshold autoregression, bounce-back effects, asymmetric business cycles.

The European Way Out of Recessions

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.Threshold autoregression, bounce-back effects, asymmetric business cycles. JEL classification: E32, C22.

Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions

This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession “bounce-back” in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession-based dummy variables and threshold models, we relate the “bounce-back” effect to an endogenously estimated unobservable Markov-switching state variable. When the model is applied to U.S. real GDP, we find that the Markov-switching regimes are closely related to NBER-dated recessions and expansions. Also, the Markov-switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the “bounce-back” effect is large, implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small. Meanwhile, having accounted for the “bounce-back” effect, we find little or no remaining serial correlation in the data, suggesting that our model is sufficient to capture the defining features of U.S. business cycle dynamics. When the model is applied to other countries, we find larger permanent effects of recessions.Business cycles ; Recessions

The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-Switching models

This paper explores the various shapes the recoveries may exhibit within a Markov- Switching model. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed by Kim, Morley and Piger (2005) and extends the methodology by proposing i) a more flexible bounce-back model, ii) explicit tests to select the appropriate bounce-back function, if any, and iii) a suitable measure of the permanent impact of recessions. This approach is then applied to post-WWII quarterly growth rates of US, UK and French real GDPs.Markov-Switching models; bounce-back effects; asymmetric business cycles.

A comparative study of boundary conditions for lattice Boltzmann simulations of high Reynolds number flows

Four commonly-used boundary conditions in lattice Boltzmann simulation, i.e. the bounce-back, non-equilibrium bounce-back, non-equilibrium extrapolation, and the kinetic boundary condition, have been systematically investigated to assess their accuracy, stability and efficiency in simulating high Reynolds number flows. For the classical lid-driven cavity flow problem, it is found that the bounce-back scheme does not influence the simulation accuracy in the bulk region if the boundary condition is properly implemented to avoid generating non-physical slip velocity. Although the kinetic boundary condition naturally produces physical slip velocity at the wall, it gives overall satisfactory predictions of the center-line velocity profile and the vortex center locations for the Reynolds numbers considered. For the cavity flow problem, all four boundary conditions show minimal difference in the computing time needed to reach a steady state. This is surprising because the kinetic boundary condition is significantly different from the other three schemes which are designed specifically for no-slip boundary conditions. The bounce-back scheme is the most computationally efficient in updating boundary points, which is particularly attractive if there are a large number of solid bodies in the flow field. For the numerical stability, we further test the pressure-driven channel flow with or without a enclosed square cylinder. Overall, the kinetic boundary condition is the most stable of the four schemes. The non-equilibrium extrapolation scheme presents excellent stability second to the kinetic boundary condition for the lid-driven cavity flow. In comparison with other threes schemes, the stability of non-equilibrium bounce-back scheme appears to be less satisfactory for both flows

The Philippines: Recent Performance, Prospects for 1990-1991, Policy and Development Issues

This paper describes the nature of structural adjustments necessary for the economy to bounce back to life. This is accompanied by an analysis of the performance of the Philippine economy in 1989.The prognosis for the next two years is also examined.economic recovery, economic growth, economic reform

Inundated by the audience: Journalism, audience participation and the 2011 Brisbane flood

Following the Brisbane flood in 2011, Seven's breakfast television program Sunrise launched a partnership with the Queensland government called 'Operation Bounce Back'. The initiative called on skilled tradespeople to volunteer for the rebuilding effort, and extended Sunrise's representations of audience participation. In this article, we examine Operation Bounce Back in relation to different accounts of audience participation. We look at the interaction between Sunrise and the government in the management of Operation Bounce Back, and draw on both Sunrise's representations of the program and documents obtained under Right to Information provisions. The case provides the basis for considering the role of journalism in managing representations of public and audience participation