Assessing the Predictions of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Multiple Chemical Transport Models Within the Greater Metropolitan Region NSW

Within the Greater Metropolitan Region NSW, consideration of the accuracy of predicted biogenic emissions inputted into chemical transport models is important. These biogenic emissions react with anthropogenic compounds producing organic aerosol and ground level ozone, which negatively impact the wider environment. Despite this, there have been few studies in the area regarding these compounds and large uncertainty exists. To address this issue, the predictions of biogenic emissions from MEGAN and the CSIRO-CTM, within the Greater Metropolitan Region, were assessed using computational and statistical methods. This involved: a model intercomparison between three different model implementations run for February 2011, an assessment of seasonal variability of predicted emissions using a complete 2013 dataset, and a comparison between the outputs of one model using February 2011 and 2013 data. Predicted emissions from these models revealed that photosynthetically active radiation and temperature explain the majority of the temporal variation in the predicted emissions resulting in a diurnal distribution. However, the majority of spatial variation is explained by leaf area index and broadleaf vegetation cover within each of the models. It was also found that implementations of MEGAN predict higher quantities of emissions than the CSIRO-CTM, and high emissions of isoprene and lower emissions of monoterpenes. Each model also predicts high levels of emissions over national parks. Emissions were found to be seasonally variable with emissions at their highest during summer and lowest during winter. While the spatial distribution remained nearly unchanged throughout the year. The emission predictions for February 2013 were found to be significantly higher than those in February 2011 owing to the increased temperatures predicted for 2013. This research highlights the importance of using up to date and accurate model inputs and the need for further biogenic flux measurements in the area

Origins and composition of fine atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, California

In this paper we report chemically resolved measurements of organic aerosol (OA) and related tracers during the Biosphere Effects on Aerosols and Photochemistry Experiment (BEARPEX) at the Blodgett Forest Research Station, California from 15 August–10 October 2007. OA contributed the majority of the mass to the fine atmospheric particles and was predominately oxygenated (OOA). The highest concentrations of OA were during sporadic wildfire influence when aged plumes were impacting the site. In situ measurements of particle phase molecular markers were dominated by secondary compounds and along with gas phase compounds could be categorized into six factors or sources: (1) aged biomass burning emissions and oxidized urban emissions, (2) oxidized urban emissions (3) oxidation products of monoterpene emissions, (4) monoterpene emissions, (5) anthropogenic emissions and (6) local methyl chavicol emissions and oxidation products. There were multiple biogenic components that contributed to OA at this site whose contributions varied diurnally, seasonally and in response to changing meteorological conditions, e.g. temperature and precipitation events. Concentrations of isoprene oxidation products were larger when temperatures were higher during the first half of the campaign (15 August–12 September) due to more substantial emissions of isoprene and enhanced photochemistry. The oxidation of methyl chavicol, an oxygenated terpene emitted by ponderosa pine trees, contributed similarly to OA throughout the campaign. In contrast, the abundances of monoterpene oxidation products in the particle phase were greater during the cooler conditions in the latter half of the campaign (13 September–10 October), even though emissions of the precursors were lower, although the mechanism is not known. OA was correlated with the anthropogenic tracers 2-propyl nitrate and carbon monoxide (CO), consistent with previous observations, while being comprised of mostly non-fossil carbon (>75%). The correlation between OA and an anthropogenic tracer does not necessarily identify the source of the carbon as being anthropogenic but instead suggests a coupling between the anthropogenic and biogenic components in the air mass that might be related to the source of the oxidant and/or the aerosol sulfate. Observations of organosulfates of isoprene and α-pinene provided evidence for the likely importance of aerosol sulfate in spite of neutralized aerosol although acidic plumes might have played a role upwind of the site. This is in contrast to laboratory studies where strongly acidic seed aerosols were needed in order to form these compounds. These compounds together represented only a minor fraction (<1%) of the total OA mass, which may be the result of the neutralized aerosol at the site or because only a small number of organosulfates were quantified. The low contribution of organosulfates to total OA suggests that other mechanisms, e.g. NO_x enhancement of oxidant levels, are likely responsible for the majority of the anthropogenic enhancement of biogenic secondary organic aerosol observed at this site

A Comprehensive Emission Inventory of Bbiogenic Volatile Organic Compounds in Europe: Improved Seasonality and Land-cover

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emitted from vegetation are important for the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. Therefore, BVOC emission are an important input for air quality models. To model these emissions with high spatial resolution, the accuracy of the underlying vegetation inventory is crucial. We present a BVOC emission model that accommodates different vegetation inventories and uses satellite-based measurements of greenness instead of pre-defined vegetation periods. This approach to seasonality implicitly treats effects caused by water or nutrient availability, altitude and latitude on a plant stand. Additionally, we test the influence of proposed seasonal variability in enzyme activity on BVOC emissions. In its present setup, the emission model calculates hourly emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and the oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC) methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone and acetic acid. In this study, emissions based on three different vegetation inventories are compared with each other and diurnal and seasonal variations in Europe are investigated for the year 2006. Two of these vegetation inventories require information on tree-cover as an input. We compare three different land-cover inventories (USGS GLCC, GLC2000 and Globcover 2.2) with respect to tree-cover. The often-used USGS GLCC land-cover inventory leads to a severe reduction of BVOC emissions due to a potential miss-attribution of broad-leaved trees and reduced tree-cover compared to the two other land-cover inventories. To account for uncertainties in the land-cover classification, we introduce land-cover correction factors for each relevant land-use category to adjust the tree-cover. The results are very sensitive to these factors within the plausible range. For June 2006, total monthly BVOC emissions decreased up to −27% with minimal and increased up to +71% with maximal factors, while in January 2006, the changes in monthly BVOC emissions were −54 and +56% with minimal and maximal factors, respectively. The new seasonality approach leads to a reduction in the annual emissions compared with non-adjusted data. The strongest reduction occurs in OVOC (up to −32 %), the weakest in isoprene (as little as −19 %). If also enzyme seasonality is taken into account, however, isoprene reacts with the steepest decrease of annual emissions, which are reduced by −44% to −49 %, annual emissions of monoterpenes reduce between −30 and −35 %. The sensitivity of the model to changes in temperature depends on the climatic zone but not on the vegetation inventory. The sensitivity is higher for temperature increases of 3K (+31% to +64 %) than decreases by the same amount (−20 to −35 %). The climatic zones “Cold except summer” and “arid” are most sensitive to temperature changes in January for isoprene and monoterpenes, respectively, while in June, “polar” is most sensitive to temperature for both isoprene and monoterpenes. Our model predicts the oxygenated volatile organic compounds to be the most abundant fraction of the annual European emissions (3571–5328 Gg yr−1), followed by monoterpenes (2964–4124 Gg yr−1), isoprene (1450–2650 Gg yr−1) and sesquiterpenes (150–257 Gg yr−1). We find regions with high isoprene emissions (most notably the Iberian Peninsula), but overall, oxygenated VOC dominate with 43–45% (depending on the vegetation inventory) contribution to the total annual BVOC emissions in Europe. Isoprene contributes between 18–21 %, monoterpenes 33–36% and sesquiterpenes contribute 1–2 %.We compare the concentrations of biogenic species simulated by an air quality model with measurements of isoprene and monoterpenes in Hohenpeissenberg (Germany) for both summer and winter. The agreement between observed and modelled concentrations is better in summer than in winter. This can partly be explained with the difficulty to model weather conditions in winter accurately, but also with the increased anthropogenic influence on the concentrations of BVOC compounds in winter. Our results suggest that land-cover inventories used to derive tree-cover must be chosen with care. Also, uncertainties in the classification of land-cover pixels must be taken into account and remain high. This problem must be addressed together with the remote sensing community. Our new approach using a greenness index for addressing seasonality of vegetation can be implemented easily in existing models. The importance of OVOC for air quality should be more deeply addressed by future studies, especially in smog chambers. Also, the fate of BVOC from the dominant region of the Iberian Peninsula should be studied more in detail

Seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions as determined by formaldehyde column measurements from space

Formaldehyde (HCHO) columns measured from space by solar UV backscatter allow mapping of reactive hydrocarbon emissions. The principal contributor to these emissions during the growing season is the biogenic hydrocarbon isoprene, which is of great importance for driving regional and global tropospheric chemistry. We present seven years (1995-2001) of HCHO column data for North America from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), and show that the general seasonal and interannual variability of these data is consistent with knowledge of isoprene emission. There are some significant regional discrepancies with the seasonal patterns predicted from current isoprene emission models, and we suggest that these may reflect flaws in the models. The interannual variability of HCHO columns observed by GOME appears to follow the interannual variability of surface temperature, as expected from current isoprene emission models

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ~1 km² spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon) depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ~600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoprene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at least some global models produce reasonable results when using isoprene emission distributions similar to MEGAN estimates. In addition, comparison with isoprene emissions estimated from satellite formaldehyde observations indicates reasonable agreement. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to earth system changes (e.g., climate and land-use) demonstrates the potential for large future changes in emissions. Using temperature distributions simulated by global climate models for year 2100, MEGAN estimates that isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two. This is considerably greater than previous estimates and additional observations are needed to evaluate and improve the methods used to predict future isoprene emissions

Multi-scale modeling study of the source contributions to near-surface ozone and sulfur oxides levels over California during the ARCTAS-CARB period

Chronic high surface ozone (O_3) levels and the increasing sulfur oxides (SO_x = SO_2 + SO_4) ambient concentrations over South Coast (SC) and other areas of California (CA) are affected by both local emissions and long-range transport. In this paper, multi-scale tracer, full-chemistry and adjoint simulations using the STEM atmospheric chemistry model are conducted to assess the contribution of local emission sourcesto SC O_3 and to evaluate the impacts of transported sulfur and local emissions on the SC sulfur budgetduring the ARCTAS-CARB experiment period in 2008. Sensitivity simulations quantify contributions of biogenic and fire emissions to SC O_3 levels. California biogenic and fire emissions contribute 3–4 ppb to near-surface O_3 over SC, with larger contributions to other regions in CA. During a long-range transport event from Asia starting from 22 June, high SO_x levels (up to ~0.7 ppb of SO_2 and ~1.3 ppb of SO_4) is observed above ~6 km, but they did not affect CA surface air quality. The elevated SO_x observed at 1–4 km is estimated to enhance surface SO_x over SC by ~0.25 ppb (upper limit) on ~24 June. The near-surface SO_x levels over SC during the flight week are attributed mostly to local emissions. Two anthropogenic SO_x emission inventories (EIs) from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are compared and applied in 60 km and 12 km chemical transport simulations, and the results are compared withobservations. The CARB EI shows improvements over the National Emission Inventory (NEI) by EPA, but generally underestimates surface SC SO_x by about a factor of two. Adjoint sensitivity analysis indicated that SO_2 levels at 00:00 UTC (17:00 local time) at six SC surface sites were influenced by previous day maritime emissions over the ocean, the terrestrial emissions over nearby urban areas, and by transported SO_2 from the north through both terrestrial and maritime areas. Overall maritime emissions contribute 10–70% of SO2 and 20–60% fine SO_4 on-shore and over the most terrestrial areas, with contributions decreasing with in-land distance from the coast. Maritime emissions also modify the photochemical environment, shifting O_3 production over coastal SC to more VOC-limited conditions. These suggest an important role for shipping emission controls in reducing fine particle and O_3 concentrations in SC

Multi-scale modeling study of the source contributions to near-surface ozone and sulfur oxides levels over California during the ARCTAS-CARB period

Chronic high surface ozone (O3) levels and the increasing sulfur oxides (SOx = SO2+SO4) ambient concentrations over South Coast (SC) and other areas of California (CA) are affected by both local emissions and long-range transport. In this paper, multi-scale tracer, full-chemistry and adjoint simulations using the STEM atmospheric chemistry model are conducted to assess the contribution of local emission sourcesto SC O3 and to evaluate the impacts of transported sulfur and local emissions on the SC sulfur budgetduring the ARCTAS-CARB experiment period in 2008. Sensitivity simulations quantify contributions of biogenic and fire emissions to SC O3 levels. California biogenic and fire emissions contribute 3–4 ppb to near-surface O3 over SC, with larger contributions to other regions in CA. During a long-range transport event from Asia starting from 22 June, high SOx levels (up to ~0.7 ppb of SO2 and ~1.3 ppb of SO4) is observed above ~6 km, but they did not affect CA surface air quality. The elevated SOx observed at 1–4 km is estimated to enhance surface SOx over SC by ~0.25 ppb (upper limit) on ~24 June. The near-surface SOx levels over SC during the flight week are attributed mostly to local emissions. Two anthropogenic SOx emission inventories (EIs) from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are compared and applied in 60 km and 12 km chemical transport simulations, and the results are compared withobservations. The CARB EI shows improvements over the National Emission Inventory (NEI) by EPA, but generally underestimates surface SC SOx by about a factor of two. Adjoint sensitivity analysis indicated that SO2 levels at 00:00 UTC (17:00 local time) at six SC surface sites were influenced by previous day maritime emissions over the ocean, the terrestrial emissions over nearby urban areas, and by transported SO2 from the north through both terrestrial and maritime areas. Overall maritime emissions contribute 10–70% of SO2 and 20–60% fine SO4 on-shore and over the most terrestrial areas, with contributions decreasing with in-land distance from the coast. Maritime emissions also modify the photochemical environment, shifting O3 production over coastal SC to more VOC-limited conditions. These suggest an important role for shipping emission controls in reducing fine particle and O3concentrations in SC

Inverse modeling of the global methyl chloride sources

Inverse modeling using the Bayesian least squares method is applied to better constrain the sources and sinks of atmospheric methyl chloride (CH3Cl) using observations from seven surface stations and eight aircraft field experiments. We use a three-dimensional global chemical transport model, the GEOS-Chem, as the forward model. Up to 39 parameters describing the continental/hemispheric and seasonal dependence of the major sources of CH3Cl are used in the inversion. We find that the available surface and aircraft observations cannot constrain all the parameters, resulting in relatively large uncertainties in the inversion results. By examining the degrees of freedom in the inversion Jacobian matrix, we choose a reduced set of parameters that can be constrained by the observations while providing valuable information on the sources and sinks. In particular, we resolve the seasonal dependence of the biogenic and biomass-burning sources for each hemisphere. The in situ aircraft measurements are found to provide better constraints on the emission sources than surface measurements. The a posteriori emissions result in better agreement with the observations, particularly at southern high latitudes. The a posteriori biogenic and biomass-burning sources decrease by 13 and 11% to 2500 and 545 Gg yr-1, respectively, while the a posteriori net ocean source increases by about a factor of 2 to 761 Gg yr-1. The decrease in biomass-burning emissions is largely due to the reduction in the emissions in seasons other than spring in the Northern Hemisphere. The inversion results indicate that the biogenic source has a clear winter minimum in both hemispheres, likely reflecting the decrease of biogenic activity during that season. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union