Pan-European backcasting exercise, enriched with regional perspective, and including a list of short-term policy options

This deliverable reports on the results of the third and final pan-European stakeholder meeting and secondly, on the enrichment with a Pilot Area and regional perspective. The main emphasis is on backcasting as a means to arrive at long-term strategies and short-term (policy) actions

A Planning Template for Nonwork Travel and Transit Oriented Development, MTI Report 01-12

The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San José State University assigned a project team to design a planning template for transit-oriented development (TOD) that incorporates an understanding of nonwork travel, that is, trips for shopping, eating out, and engaging in recreational and cultural activities. Nonwork trips are growing in signifigance and now account for four of every five trips. At the same time, TOD has become a popular planning response to the impacts of metropolitan growth. Some planners believe that TOD will induce more pedestrian and transit trips and will reduce the average length and frequency of household auto travel. This effect is assumed to result from improved accessibility to employment and nonwork venues located in compact, mixed-use centers. Planning professionals in many MPOs also suggest that if multiple centers are linked by high quality transit, such as light or heavy rail, access is enabled to the broad range of nonwork activities. The project arrived at these essential findings: (1) Venues for nonwork activities are very numerous and geographically dispersed. 2) The spatial environment for nonwork activities is the result of growing prosperity, technical innovation, and a dynamic, competitive marketplace. (3) The consumer marketplace will provide many more places to go than mass transit can cost-effectively serve. (4) Current metropolitan planning methods and modeling tools focus on the work trip and do not adequately account for the complexity of nonwork trips and their linkage to work trips. These findings support the need for a new regional planning process to complement current methods. One recommended approach is that metropolitan communities establish a Nonwork Travel Improvement Planning Process using a multidisciplinary expert advisory group interacting with a core, Internet-enabled, professional transportation planning staff. An iterative interaction across varied but relevant skill sets could be achieved through a Backcasting Delphi process. The focus of the interaction would be on understanding the ramifications of consumer and retail industry behavior for TOD and other new transportation strategies, and then assessing the available strategies for cost-effectiveness in reducing the impacts of growth and automobility in a complex and uncertain metropolitan market

Assessment of Policy Instruments Toward a Sustainable Traffic System -A backcasting approach for Stockhom 2030

Finding strategies for preventing the process of global warming is growing urgent. Our intention is to highlight the future requirements and expectations on transport related sustainability measures (e.g. mobility management services, road tolls, CO2-taxes and renewable fuel systems) assisting the reaching of a long-term sustainability target of greenhouse gas emissions at the year 2030. We will employ the transport demand model SAMPERS and the traffic assignment model EMME/2 in order to investigate the effect from specific changes to the traffic network of Stockholm 2030, e.g. the environmental and socioeconomic impact from reduced number of commute trips, reduced car ownership, and new price structures and restrictions on private vehicle travel. In connection to this, we also quantify negative side effects (so-called rebound effects) coupled to efficiencies in the traffic network. We use an appraisal framework, influenced by backcasting, in order to assess the impact from the specific policies in relation to the United Nation’s (IPCC) requirements for a sustainable level of CO2-emissions. The findings from this study point at the inevitable need for at least a 50% renewable fuel mix in the traffic system if reaching the target 2030. Single-handedly, travel demand measures are insufficient to accomplish the CO2-emission target for 2030. Nevertheless, reducing traffic volumes by just a few percent might contribute to savings in emission costs, accident costs and aggregate travel time costs in the traffic system. Such measures are needed in order to mitigate the transition from fossil- to renewable fuels.

What futures for Eastern Africa highlands under threat of climate change? Exploring alternative pathways in two traditional farming communities through participatory scenarios.[ID354]

Climate change is amongst the greatest future challenges and threats to food security for millions of people across the African continent. Tackling climate change effects and designing transformative pathways for adaptation requires accounting for climatic and non-climatic conditions and their interactions with the human communities; these interactions are particularly acute in mountain areas due to steep environmental gradients, dense populations and often isolated geography. As a result, the capacity of local stakeholders to anticipate future changes and assess their potential impacts is key for enhancing adaptation and resilience in mountain ecosystems. We applied a participatory scenario development framework to explore adaptation strategies to modelled climate changes by mid-21stcentury in the Taita Hills, Kenya, and a mountain site northwest of Jimma in Ethiopia. Potential socio-economic and consequent land use and cover changes scenarios were developed for three alternative pathways: opportunistic coping strategy (business as usual); and two alternative integrated adaptation scenarios. In the Taita Hills, communities rely mainly on farming and non-timber forest products. Under a business-as-usual scenario, human population and activities were projected to concentrate at high elevation, triggering cascade effects on remnant forest cover, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Alternative adaptation scenarios envisaged reforestation combined with either improved agricultural practices or with a strong focus on ecosystem restoration and relocation of human activities. In the Jimma area, coffee production is an important income source. However, rising temperatures are expected to disrupt traditional coffee production under a business-as-usual scenario, resulting in the loss of coffee-forest canopies and a reduction in forest-dependent biodiversity. To address this, the envisioned alternative adaptation scenarios included the expansion of either commercial coffee plantations or agroforestry, including traditional coffee farming. In both Taita and Jimma, adaptation pathways trade-offs between provisioning, supporting, and regulating services are expected, as well as between livelihoods and biodiversity conservation

Finding your way into an open online learning community

Making educational materials freely available on the web is not only a noble enterprise, but also fits the call of helping people to become lifelong learners; a call which gets louder and louder every day. The world is rapidly changing, requiring us to continuously update our knowledge and skills. A problem with this approach to lifelong learning is that the materials that are made available are often both incomplete and unsuitable for independent learning in an online setting. The OpenER (Open Educational Resources) project at the Open Universiteit Nederland makes more than 20 short courses, originally developed for independent-study, freely available from the website www.opener.ou.nl. For our research we start from an envisioned online learning environment now under development. We use backcasting to select research topics that form steps from the current to the ultimate situation. The two experiments we report on here are an extension to standard forum software and the use of student notes to annotate learning materials: two small steps towards our ultimate open learning environment

Sensemaking of real estate management using real options and scenario planning

Healthcare across the world is facing many uncertainties. In Dutch healthcare, a recent policy change forces health organisations to deal more efficiently with real estate which makes flexibility more necessary. In order to support real estate managers in decision making in flexibility, we developed a method combining scenario planning and real options. This method is aimed to enhance sensemaking on both the consequences of future uncertainties on the organisation which influences real estate management, and on the types of flexibility needed to enable adapting to these changes. In this way, better real estate strategies can be developed. Through testing the method in one pilot case, this study shows sensemaking had taken place. Based on these results, propositions are developed focusing on the relation between real options, backcasting scenario planning and sensemaking

The time it takes: Temporalities of planning

State planning has been a defining means for modern subjects to regulate the passage of time. In practice, it is the focus of multiple conflicts and doubts, which planners attempt to mediate. In this paper, I address the regimes of time that planning both promotes and encounters, and tease out what these imply for anthropology. Using ethnography of Norwegian and Swedish planning offices and their encounters with participatory planning, I question recent claims that there has been an evacuation of the near future or a retreat of administrative intervention. I also suggest that recent anthropological concerns with time have been confined by their attempts to characterize the changing timescapes of specific modal shifts, such as from the modern to the neoliberal. Instead, in my ethnography, I focus not on tracking epochal breaks in time, but on demonstrating how time is manipulated, and how multiple temporalities are performed in ongoing projects of democratic planning

If, At First, The Idea is Not Absurd, Then There is No Hope For It: Towards 15 MtC in the UK Transport Sector.

This paper examines the possibilities of reducing transport carbon dioxide emissions in the UK by 60 per cent by 2030 using a modified scenario building and backcasting approach. It examines a range of policy measures (behavioural and technological), assessing how they can be effectively combined to achieve the required level of emissions reduction. The intention is to evaluate whether such an ambitious target is feasible, identify the main problems (including the transition costs), and the main decision points over the 30-year time horizon. This paper outlines the first stages of the research, providing: An introduction to futures studies, including a review of forecasting, scenario building and backcasting approaches; An assessment of the UK transport sector's contribution to climate change and global warming, and; Setting targets for 2030, forecasting the business as usual situation for all forms of transport in the UK, and assessing the scale of change in terms of achieving the emissions reductions. The benefits of scenario building and backcasting are that innovative packages of policy measures can be developed to address emissions reduction targets. It allows trend-breaking analysis, by highlighting the policy and planning choices to be made by identifying those key stakeholders that should be included in the process, and by making an assessment of the main decision points that have to be made (the step changes). It also provides a longer-term background against which more detailed analysis can take place.

Envisioning 2050: climate change, aquaculture and fisheries in West Africa. Dakar, Senegal 14-16 April 2010

This report presents the activities and results of the workshop Envisioning 2050: Climate Change, Aquaculture and Fisheries in West Africa. The objectives of the workshop were to discuss critical issues and uncertainties faced by the fisheries and aquaculture sector in Ghana, Senegal and Mauritania, build sectoral scenarios for 2050 and discuss the implication of these scenarios in the context of climate change for the countries and the region

Does Comprehensive Education Work for the Long-term Unemployed?

This paper evaluates the effects of comprehensive adult education on wage earnings of the long-term unemployed, an essentially unexplored issue. We use register data pertaining to a large sample of long-term unemployed persons in Sweden who either enrolled in the comprehensive adult education program, participated in labour market training, or remained in open unemployment. We find that individuals with more than one semester at upper secondary level of the comprehensive adult education program experienced an increase in annual wage earnings compared with those who remained in open unemployment. For those studying at the compulsory level we find no significant effects. The estimated effects were overall negative in relation to vocational labour market training.Adult education; long-term unemployed; wage earnings