The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis

Microsimulation (MS) and Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE) have both been widely used in policy analysis. Their combination allows the utilisation of the advantages of both types. The aim of this paper is to describe the state-of-the-art in simulation analysis and to illustrate the benefits and problems of linking micro and macro models by analysing flat tax reform proposals for Germany. Taking feedback effects into account has important implications for the evaluation of tax reforms. The analysis shows that a personal income flat tax can indeed overcome the fundamental equity efficiency trade-off while simultaneously increasing the tax revenue. However, this result does not hold for a flat tax combining a personal income flat tax with a corporate cash flow flat tax, even when allowing for an ex-post loss in revenue as the top of the distribution still gains the most.Microsimulation, CGE, linked micro macro models, flat tax

The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis

Mircrosimulation models (MSM) and Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE) have both been widely used in policy analysis. The combination of these two model types allows the utilisation of the advantages of both types. The aim of this paper is to describe the state-of-the-art in simulation and to demonstrate the benefits of linking both model types modelling flat tax reform proposals for Germany. Taking the general equilibrium effects into account has important implications for the evaluation of a tax reform. The analysis shows that a personal income flat tax can indeed overcome the fundamental equity efficiency trade-off in the long-run while simultaneously increasing the tax revenue. However, this result does not hold for a flat tax combining a personal income flat tax with a corporate cash flow flat tax, even when allowing for an ex-post loss in revenue. --Microsimulation,CGE,linked micro macro models,flat tax

The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis

Mircrosimulation models (MSM) and Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE) have both been widely used in policy analysis. The combination of these two model types allows the utilisation of the advantages of both types. The aim of this paper is to describe the state-of-the-art in simulation and to demonstrate the benefits of linking both model types modelling flat tax reform proposals for Germany. Taking the general equilibrium effects into account has important implications for the evaluation of a tax reform. The analysis shows that a personal income flat tax can indeed overcome the fundamental equity efficiency trade-off in the long-run while simultaneously increasing the tax revenue. However, this result does not hold for a flat tax combining a personal income flat tax with a corporate cash flow flat tax, even when allowing for an ex-post loss in revenue.microsimulation, CGE, linked micro macro models, flat tax

Progressive Taxation and Tax Morale

As the link between tax compliance and tax morale is found to be robust, finding the determinants of tax morale can help to understand and fight tax evasion. In this paper we analyze the effect of progressive taxation on tax morale in a cross-country approach – which has not been investigated before. Our theoretical analysis leads to two testable predictions. First, an individual’s tax morale is higher, the more progressive the tax schedule is. Second, the impact of tax progressivity on tax morale is declining in income. In our empirical analysis, we make use of a unique dataset of tax progressivity measures and follow most of the tax morale literature by employing the World Values Survey to measure tax morale. Controlling for a wide range of variables, we confirm both hypotheses in our empirical analysis.tax morale, tax compliance, progressivity, taxation, redistribution

Documentation FiFoSiM: Integrated tax benefit microsimulation

This paper describes FiFoSiM, the integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model of the Center of Public Economics at the University of Cologne. FiFoSiM consists of three main parts. The first part is a static tax benefit microsimulation module. The second part adds a behavioural component to the model: an econometrically estimated labour supply model. The third module is a CGE model which allows the user of FiFoSiM to assess the global economic effects of policy measures. Two specific features distinguish FiFoSiM from other tax benefit models: First, the simultaneous use of two databases for the tax benefit module and second, the linkage of the tax benefit model to a CGE model. --FiFoSiM,microsimulation,CGE

Progressive Taxation and Tax Morale

As the link between tax compliance and tax morale is found to be robust, finding the determinants of tax morale can help to understand and fight tax evasion. In this paper we analyze the effect of progressive taxation on tax morale in a cross-country approach - which has not been investigated before. Our theoretical analysis leads to two testable predictions. First, an individual's tax morale is higher, the more progressive the tax schedule is. Second, the impact of tax progressivity on tax morale is declining in income. In our empirical analysis, we make use of a unique dataset of tax progressivity measures and follow most of the tax morale literature by employing the World Values Survey to measure tax morale. Controlling for a wide range of variables, we confirm both hypotheses in our empirical analysis.Tax Morale, Tax Compliance, Progressivity, Taxation, Redistribution

Importing a Successful System? Simulating Different Regimes of Financing Social Security for Germany

In Germany, there is an ongoing debate about how to increase the efficiency of the social security system. The aim of this paper is to simulate different financing systems for Germany with its typical Conservative welfare state regime. For our analysis, we rely on the European static multinational microsimulation model EUROMOD, which provides the opportunity to implement the financing systems of other European countries in Germany (policy swap). The introduction of a Liberal British or the Southern Greek financing system increases inequality and poverty, as well as labour supply incentives. The introduction of the Social-democratic Danish financing system decreases inequality of incomes and leads to ambiguous incentives effects. Our results suggest that there is scope for efficiency increasing reforms in Germany although we do not simulate behavioural responses.social security, welfare states, comparative analysis, EUROMOD

The Development of Multidimensional Poverty in Germany 1985-2007

This paper deals with concepts of multidimensional poverty measurement and applies them to Germany. Three concepts of poverty are examined and included into one multidimensional approach: economic well being, capability and social exclusion. The empirical application relies on indices introduced by Bourguigon and Chakravarty (2003), and Alkire and Foster (2008). It uses data from the German Socio-Economic Panel study. The indices are tested for their robustness in several aspects, and the influence of changing levels of substitutability between achievements on the poverty dimensions is examined. It transpires that the depth of poverty is relatively stable for the period 1985 to 2007. A structural analysis of the poor in 2007 reveals that the group at greatest risk of poverty is the unemployed.multidimensional measurement, poverty, deprivation, inequality

Effects of flat tax reforms in Western Europe on equity and efficiency

The flat income tax has become increasingly popular recently, yet its implementation is limited to Eastern Europe. We analyse the distributional and e? ciency effects of flat tax scenarios for Western European countries. Our simulations show that flat tax rates required to attain revenue neutrality with existing basic allowances improve labour supply incentives. However, they result in higher inequality and polarisation. Flat rates necessary to keep the inequality levels unchanged allow for some scope for flat taxes to increase both equity and e? ciency. Our analysis suggests that Mediterranean countries are more likely to benefit from flat taxes. --Flat tax reform,income distribution,work incentives,microsimulation

Fair and Efficient Taxation under Partial Control: Theory and Evidence

There is clear evidence that fairness plays a role in redistribution. Individuals want to compensate others for their misfortune, while they allow them to enjoy the fruits of their effort. Such fairness considerations have been introduced in political economy and optimal income tax models with a focus on income acquisition. However, actual tax-benefit systems are based on much more information. We introduce fairness in a tax-benefit scheme that is based on several characteristics. The novelty is the introduction of partial control. Each characteristic differs in terms of the degree of control, i.e., the extent to which it can be changed by exerting effort. Two testable predictions result. First, the tax rate on partially controllable characteristics should be lower compared to the tax rate on non-controllable tags. Second, the total effect of non-controllable characteristics on the post-tax outcome should be equal to zero. We estimate implicit tax rates for different characteristics in 26 European countries (using tEU-SILC data) and the US (using CPS data). We find a robust tendency in all countries to compensate more for the uncontrollable composite characteristic (based on sex, age and disability in our study) compared to the partially controllable one (based on family composition, immigration status, unemployment and education level). We also estimate the degree of fairness of tax-benefit schemes in different countries. Only the Continental countries France and Luxembourg pass the fairness test, whereas the Baltic and Anglo-Saxon countries (including the US) perform worst.fairness, redistribution, tax-benefit schemes, tagging, optimal taxation