99 research outputs found

    What drives productivity growth in the new EU member states? The case of Poland

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    This paper considers productivity developments in the new EU member states and provides evidence on factors driving productivity growth in these countries, focusing on a panel of Polish manufacturing industries. Companies in Poland seem to benefit significantly from transfer of technologies that have been accumulated in more developed economies. By contrast, no strong evidence is found on immediate technology transfer. Another result is a significant effect of domestic innovation activity. There are signs that market reforms also boosted efficiency, whereas the role of reallocation of production factors towards more productive activities was marginal. Bearing in mind all methodological and data-related caveats, as well as cross-country diversity, caution is required while interpreting the findings and extrapolating them to other new member states. However, the results obtained provide some policy implications and make the case for taking into account domestic innovation activity while constructing endogenous growth models for the EU catching-up economies. JEL Classification: C23, O31, O47convergence, innovation, manufacturing, multi-factor productivity, new Member States

    Real convergence and its illusions

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    This paper uses the EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model, to illustrate dynamic adjustments in a small open economy undergoing real convergence. We consider the effects of productivity catch-up and misperceptions about future productivity developments. Our results indicate that even if real convergence takes the form of a gradual process, the dynamic responses of key macrovariables can be far from smooth. We also find that overly optimistic expectations about productivity shifts can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and so be relevant in accounting for cyclical deviations from a sustainable real convergence path. Our comparisons across alternative monetary regimes reveal that a flexible exchange rate helps to smooth real convergence processes and misperceptions associated with tradable sector productivity, while the opposite usually holds true for scenarios based on nontradable sector developments. JEL Classification: D58, E32, F41Boom-bust cycles, dynamic general equilibrium models, real convergence

    FDI and productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

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    This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in central and eastern Europe, using industry-level data. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings. JEL Classification: C23, F21, O33absorptive capacity, FDI, Productivity convergence

    Internationalization and economic performance of enterprises: evidence from firm-level data

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    This paper provides evidence on the relative performance of internationalized firms using Polish firm-level data spanning over the period of 1996-2005. We distinguish between three modes of internationalization: exporting, importing of capital goods and foreign direct investment. Our results point strongly at superior performance of exporters vs. non-exporters importers vs. non-importers and foreign affiliates vs. domestic firms. We also find evidence for significant horizontal and backward productivity spillovers from all three types of international activity.internationalization; productivity; panel firm-level data

    Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy

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    A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to positive productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement.financial frictions, open economy, optimal monetary policy

    Financial frictions and optimal monetary policy in an open economy

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    A growing number of papers have studied positive and normative implications of financial frictions in DSGE models. We contribute to this literature by studying the welfare-based monetary policy in a two-country model characterized by financial frictions, alongside a number of key features, like capital accumulation, non-traded goods and foreign-currency debt denomination. We compare the cooperative Ramsey monetary policy with standard policy benchmarks (e.g. PPI stability) as well as with the optimal Ramsey policy in a currency area. We show that the two-country perspective offers new insights on the trade-offs faced by the monetary authority. Our main results are the following. First, strict PPI targeting (nearly optimal in our model if credit frictions are absent) becomes excessively procyclical in response to positive productivity shocks in the presence of financial frictions. The related welfare losses are non-negligible, especially if financial imperfections interact with nontradable production. Second, (asymmetric) foreign currency debt denomination affects the optimal monetary policy and has important implications for exchange rate regimes. In particular, the larger the variance of domestic productivity shocks relative to foreign, the closer the PPI-stability policy is to the optimal policy and the farther is the currency union case. Third, we find that central banks should allow for deviations from price stability to offset the effects of balance sheet shocks. Finally, while financial frictions substantially decrease attractiveness of all price targeting regimes, they do not have a significant effect on the performance of a monetary union agreement. JEL Classification: E52, E61, E44, F36, F41Financial Frictions, open economy, optimal monetary polic

    Estimating the output gap in the Polish economy: the VECM approach

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    This article presents three estimates of the output gap, one using the production function method, and the other two by assessing the long-term product using cointegration relationships (based on the production function and on the hypothesis of permanent income). It also presents an analysis of time-relationships between the estimated output gaps and selected measures of inflation using the covariance of a VAR-type stochastic process. The methods employed yield different estimates of the output gap. The time paths of calculated gaps and the analysis of time relationships (conditional on the existence of relationship described by the Phillips curve and the possibility of using obtained gaps in it) allow the authors to conclude that there’s no inflationary pressure from the aggregate demand in the Polish economy, at least till the end of 2003.Output gap, VECM, production function, Permanent-Transitory Decomposition

    Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model

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    This paper presents a two-country model linking Poland and the euro area and applies it for assessment of heterogeneity across these two regions. Overall, our results can be seen as rather inconclusive about the di¤erences in parameters describing agents’decision-making in Poland and in the euro area. On the contrary, we …nd strong evidence for heterogeneity in terms of volatility and synchronization of shocks hitting both economies. Our results may be viewed as a step towards estimating the costs of Poland’s entry to the European Monetary Union, associated with giving up the monetary autonomy and losing bene…ts from stabilizing movements of the exchange rate.

    Magnetic Resonance Imaging Follow-up and JCV Serology in Multiple Sclerosis

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    Magneettikuvausta (MK) käytetään nykyään yleisesti multippeliskleroosin (MS) diagnostiikassa ja taudin seurannassa. Konventionaalinen MK (T1 ja T2 painotteiset sekvenssit) ei kuitenkaan ole spesifinen MS-taudin patologian suhteen. Lisäksi radiologiset löydökset korreloivat vain kohtalaisesti kliinisen kokonaistoimintakyvyn kanssa. Tehokkaat MS-taudin lääkehoidot, kuten natalitsumabi (NTZ), lisäävät progressiivisen multifokaalisen leukoenkefalopatian (PML) riskiä. PML on vakava demyelinoiva keskushermoston sairaus, jonka aiheuttaa neurotrooppisen JC- viruksen reaktivaatio. PML:n riskin vuoksi MS-potilailta tutkitaan JC-virusvasta- aineet ennen NTZ:n lääkehoidon aloitusta. Väitöskirjatutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli tutkia uusien MK:een perustuvien kuvantamismenetelmien, volumetrian ja diffuusiotensorikuvauksen (DTI) avulla aivoparenkyymissä tapahtuvia muutoksia MS-potilailla ja kliinisesti eriytyneessä oireyhtymässä (KEO) neljän vuoden seurantatutkimuksessa. Tavoitteena oli selvittää voidaanko volumetrialla tai DTI-muutosten arvioinnilla ennustaa progressiota KEO:sta MS-tautiin. MS-potilailla selvitettiin myös korreloivatko havaitut muutokset toimintakyvyn huononemiseen expanded disability status scale-asteikon avulla mitattuna. Kolmannessa osatyössä tutkittiin JC-virusvasta-aineiden seroprevalenssia suomalaisessa MS-potilasaineistossa sekä selvitettiin JC-virusvasta- aineiden stabiliteettia neljän vuoden seurannassa. Myös MS-taudin immunomoduloivan hoidon ja muiden kliinisten tekijöiden vaikutusta JC-viruksen esiintymiseen selvitettiin. Tuloksien mukaan suurempi MS-plakkien tilavuus lähtötilanteessa on yhteydessä progressioon KEO:sta MS-tautiin. Sen sijaan MS-potilailla aivoatrofia tai plakkien volyymi eivät selkeästi korreloineet kokonaistoimintakyvyn huononemiseen neljän vuoden seurannassa. DTI:n avulla havaitut aivoparenkyymin muutokset olivat merkittävämmät KEO- ja MS- potilailla kuin terveillä verrokeilla. Lisäksi havaittiin, että DTI-arvojen huononeminen seurannassa oli yleisempää sellaisessa KEO- ryhmässä, joka eteni MS-tautiin. Lähtötilanteen DTI-muutokset eivät kuitenkaan ennustaneet konversiota. MS-potilailla corpus callosumin DTI-arvojen ja kokonaistoimintakyvyn huononemisen välillä oli heikko yhteys. Kuvantamistulokset viittaavat siihen, että DTI:lla on potentiaalia taudin aktivisuuden monitoroinnissa sekä KEO:ssa että MS-taudissa. Volumetriassa havaitut muutokset olivat yhteydessä taudin progressiossa vain KEO:ssa. Tulosten varmentaminen edellyttää kuitenkin suurempaa potilasaineistoa ja pidempää seuranta-aikaa. JC-virusvasta-aineiden merkitystä selvittävässä tutkimuksessa havaittiin korkea JC-virusvasta-aineiden seroprevalenssi sekä KEO- että MS-potilailla (57%). Seurannassa oli huomattavaa vasta-aineiden vaihtelua. Korkeampi ikä ja miessukupuoli olivat yhteydessä JC-virusvasta-ainepositiivisuuteen. Yhteenvetona todetaan, että JC-viruksen seroprevalenssi suomalaisilla MS potilailla on korkea kuten muissakin maissa. JC-virusvasta-ainestatuksen vaihtelu on syytä huomioida kliinisessä toiminnassa.Currently, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an important role in the diagnostic process and monitoring of the disease course in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, routinely used conventional MRI (T1- and T2-weighted sequences) is not specific to underlying MS pathology, and correlations between radiological findings and clinical measures are only modest. Potent therapies for MS, such as natalizumab (NTZ), have been associated with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). PML is a severe demyelinating disease caused by the reactivation of neurotropic JC virus (JCV). Due to the risk of PML, the serological assessment of antibodies against JCV is performed before starting NTZ. The main goal of this four-year follow-up study was to determine changes in the brain using nonconventional MRI techniques, such as volumetric measurements and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and MS. Whether volumetric and DTI-derived metrics could play prognostic roles in the prediction of the conversion of CIS to MS and whether these nonconventional measures correlate with disability progression expressed by an increase in the expanded disability status scale score in MS were also evaluated. In the third part of this thesis, the seroprevalence of the anti-JCV antibodies and temporal changes in JCV serostatus in a Finnish cohort of patients with CIS and MS were evaluated. The effect of demographic factors and MS therapies on JCV status was also determined. In the first and second part of this study, the higher baseline volumes of focal brain lesions related to MS pathology were associated with the conversion of CIS to MS. In contrast, whole brain atrophy and volumes of focal lesions were not clearly correlated with disability progression over four years in MS. With regard to DTI, diffusivity changes in the brain were stronger in CIS and MS when compared to healthy controls. Moreover, the worsening of DTI metrics was primarily observed in the CIS group that converted to MS. However, a clear correlation between baseline DTI metrics and the conversion to MS was not found. In MS, a tendency for a correlation between the DTI metric in the corpus callosum (CC) and disability progression was observed. The results suggest a potential role for DTI in monitoring disease activity in CIS and MS. Volumetric measurements seem to be helpful in evaluating disease progression in CIS but not in MS. However, further studies with larger populations and longer follow-up times are required to confirm these results. The third part of the thesis showed a high seroprevalence of anti-JCV antibodies (57%) in a cohort of CIS and MS patients. Moreover, marked temporal fluctuations in JCV serostatus were observed over four years. Demographics, such as higher age and male gender, were associated with anti-JCV antibody seropositivity. These observations are consistent with the reports from multinational studies and confirm high JCV seroprevalence in Finnish MS patients. Moreover, temporal changes in JCV serostatus should be considered in clinical practice

    Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

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    Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models have recently become standard tools for policy-oriented analyses. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real-time forecasts from a richly-specified DSGE model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bayesian VARs and VARs using priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the period of 1994-2008. Except for short-term forecasts of inflation and interest rates, it is as good as or clearly outperforms BVARs and DSGE-VARs. Compared to the SPF, the DSGE model generates better output forecasts at longer horizons, but less accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C53, D58, E17Bayesian VAR, DSGE, forecasting, real-time data, SPF
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