MARKET ACCESS - OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS

Industrial Organization,

INTERNATIONAL DIFFUSION OF GAINS FROM BIOTECHNOLOGY AND THE EUROPEAN UNION'S COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY

This paper analyses the impact of adopting or rejecting genetically modified GM crops in the EU, taking into account the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In this paper the productivity impact of GMs differs across crops, as it takes factor biased technology change into account. The transfer of knowledge across countries is modelled as a process of endogenous knowledge spillovers. Analyses with a multi-region applied general equilibrium model shows that the CAP protects farm income and production from not adopting GM crops in the EU but has costs in terms of welfare. The EU will forgo substantial benefits if it banned GM imports.Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Modeling Differentiated Quality Standards in the Agri-Food Sector: The Case of Meat Trade in the EU

This paper looks at trade impacts of quality related standards from the supply side of the exporting country. We argue that food quality standards imposed by an importing country have profound effects on the market structure of the exporting industry, and hence a significant impact on the supply response. For our analysis, we develop a stylized oligopoly model that allows for the co-existence of complying and non-complying suppliers. The model is applied to two alternative policy options to explore different mechanisms an importing county may use to enhance the quality of its imports. We take the Polish meat sector as an empirical example, since after Poland's accession to the EU the tight EU food quality standards indeed apply but the process of adjusting to them is far from complete - particularly in Polish meat production/processing. The simulations show that a subsidy scheme, such as the EU's SAPARD program in Poland, can be an effective instrument to promote the compliance with standards and to upgrade the industry in the exporting country.food quality standards, trade, market structure, Poland, meat sector, oligopoly, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, Q17, Q18, L1,

Should Europe Further Strengthen Intellectual Property for Plant Breeders? An Analysis of Seed Industry Proposals

This paper illustrates the potential negative effects of increasing the scope of plant breeders' rights (PBR) protection, as has been proposed for Europe by leading plant breeding firms. Such a policy could increase the costs for varietal development for breeding companies, particularly if their access to varieties of the market leader is constrained. This is represented as an asymmetrical increase in breeders' cost functions in a simple model of endogenous quality choice under price competition. Increased scope of IPR protection leads to increased profits for the leading breeding company but decreases in varietal quality and both farm and overall profits.intellectual property rights, product differentiation, plant breeding, genetic diversity, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, L13, O34, Q16,

Mediterranean Association Agreements and European Security

Agricultural and Food Policy,

Impacts of the EU sugar policy reforms on developing countries

This report analyses the impacts of the Commission's July 2004 proposal for sugar policy reforms on developing countries. The study uses three approaches that complement each other: model simulations, literature review and country case studies. Model simulations indicate that the consequences of the EU policy reform on EU imports are rather modest: imports from LDCs increase but to a lesser extent than the Commission and other studies indicate. Important trigger points in the evaluation of the impact on trade flows are the degree of substitutability between domestic EU sugar and imported sugar, and potential 'swap' or trade diversion effects. Welfare effects are minor to ACP countries as a group, but country effects may differ strongly. The study includes three case studies - Ethiopia, Mauritius and Brazil, representing an EBA, an ACP and a net exporting country with no preferences to the EU market - to show how EU policy changes may affect the sugar industry in each of these countries.Agricultural and Food Policy,

CHINA'S FOOD ECONOMY IN THE EARLY 21ST CENTURY; DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S FOOD ECONOMY AND ITS IMPACT ON GLOBAL TRADE AND ON THE EU

Development of Chinese food economy and Chinese agricultural policies. Simulations of future developments in China and in global trade with a model for the Chinese food economy and a model for global trade analysis. Simulation of developments in a 'business as usual' scenario. Assessment of impacts of WTO accession and phasing out of multi fiber agreement. Simulation of possible impacts of the WTO-Doha round. Simulation of impacts of Chinese 'green box' policies on Chinese food economy. Simulation of impacts of application of GM products in Chinese agriculture for the Chinese economy and global trade. Analysis of trade between China and the Netherlands and foreign direct investment in China.Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade,

TRADE LIBERALISATION UNDER THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA; OPTIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AFRICA

This study provides a quantitative estimate of the potential economic consequences of multilateral trade reform under the WTO for Africa using a framework that explicitly incorporates issues of concern to the region, such as preference erosion, loss of tariff revenue, and trade facilitation. It also examines the impact of OECD agricultural support programmes on economic welfare and specialisation in Africa. In the static version of the GTAP model, the study finds that full liberalisation of trade would increase global welfare (income) by 0.3 per cent, but would add 0.7 per cent annually to income in the African region. Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, Southern Africa, are vulnerable to partial trade reforms as they incur losses from partial reform while all other regions derive positive gains from a liberalisation of minor scope.International Relations/Trade,

Indonesian Interests in The Agricultural Negotiations Under The Doha Development Agenda: an Analysis of the "July 2004 Package"

IndonesianSejak Agenda Pembangunan Doha WTO dirumuskan terjadi perkembangan arah liberalisasi pedagangan. Di negara-negara OECD, keinginan untuk mengurangi bantuan domestik tampaknya agak lamban dan sejumlah negara berkembang agak enggan membuka pasarnya. Pada “paket Juli 2004” sejumlah negara anggota menyetujui adanya pengecualian perubahan pada beberapa produk, produk khas (special product) bagi negara berkembang dan produk peka (sensitive product) pada negara maju. Dengan memilih ‘paket Juli 2004’ sebagai titik awal, makalah ini mencoba menganalisis kepentingan Indonesian dalam perundingan pertanian dalam Agenda Pembangunan Doha. Penelitian ini menggunakan model ekonomi perdagangan dan produksi (pangkalan data dan analisis GTAP) untuk mengidentifikasi kemungkinan dampak skenario liberalisasi global yang realistis dalam semangat ‘paket Juli 2004’ pada perekonomian Indonesia. Pada keadaan perdagangan yang sudah berlangsung agak liberal di Indonesia saat ini dampak menyeluruh yang diharapkan pada pendapatan nasional, perdagangan dan produksi bernilai positif, tetapi terbatas. Untuk Indonesian liberalisasi global pertanian menjanjikan prospek yang positif untuk minyak sayuran dan produk ternak. Diduga terjadi pengaruh negatif dalam upaya melindungi sektor beras dan gula, yang akan dapat dikelola dengan biaya lumayan dengan menentukan beras sebagai produk khas. Skema pelarangan impor atau kuota terbatas akan menimbulkan penurunan tingkat kesejahteraan secara nyata.EnglishEver since the WTO Doha Development Agenda was formulated, there has been mixed development in the direction of global trade liberalization. The ambitions on reforming domestic support in OECD countries seem to be moderate, at best, and a number of developing countries are less inclined to open their markets through improved access. Under ‘July 2004 package’ members now agree on far reaching exemptions from reforms in individual products (special products for developing countries and sensitive products for developed countries). Taking the ‘July 2004 package’ as a starting point, this paper tries to assess Indonesian interests in the agricultural negotiations under the WTO Doha Development Agenda. This study uses a large-scale economic model of trade and production (GTAP data base and analysis) to identify the possible impact of a realistic global liberalization scenario in the spirit of the ‘July 2004 package’ on the Indonesian economy. Given the prevailing quite liberal trade regime in Indonesia the expected overall impacts on national income, trade and production are positive, but rather limited. For Indonesian agriculture global liberalization offers positive prospects for vegetable oils and for animal products. There are small adverse effects on the protected rice and sugar sectors, which can be managed at modest costs by designating rice as special product (SP). An import ban or restrictive quota regime would entail significant welfare losses

Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models

Analyses of the impact of European policies on agricultural change are most often based on agricultural sector models. Such models have their limitations: they cannot specify the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and their spatial dimension is usually limited. Land use simulation models, on the other hand, usually depend on other models for assessing the demand for land. The consistency of those models with the assumptions and databases of the land use model is often not examined. This article reports on a research project where the links between a macroeconomic model, an agricultural sector model and a land use model were explicitly explored in order to arrive at a consistent model chain. This integrated framework was put to the test by applying it to two contrasting scenarios, which compare impact on agricultural incomes, land use and land management.land use, CAP, agricultural policy analyses, Netherlands, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,