The Exchange Rate Pass-through into Import Prices: The Case of Japanese Meat Imports

The effect of exchange rate pass-through on import prices is a question of significant interest to many nations and especially those with permanent trade deficit. Japan is traditional net importer of food products in general and meat products including beef, pork, and poultry in particular. Most of the Japanese meat imports come from a few countries thus making Japan potentially very sensitive to the swings in one or a few bilateral exchange rates. This was the motivation to estimate the exchange rate pass-through effect on meat import prices in Japan. Interestingly, results for different meats differ substantially. For instance, poultry import prices indicate almost complete exchange rate pass-through, while beef import prices indicate partial (relatively high) exchange rate pass-through. Import prices of pork, on the other hand, indicate zero exchange rate pass-through. In terms of competitiveness, these results suggest almost perfectly competitive markets among poultry importing firms, somewhat competitive markets among beef importing firms, and a high degree of market power among the pork importing firms. One of the key contributions of this paper is the use of the meats imports weighted exchange rates in the analysis. The standard practice in previous agricultural trade studies related to either exchange rate pass-through or pricing to market was to use the aggregate trade weighted exchange rates usually provided by the Central Bank authorities or sources. Our approach is novel and is due to recommendations from Goldberg (2004) and Pollard and Coughlin (2006).International Relations/Trade,

China’s Trade Surplus with the United States: The Role of Exchange Rates

International Relations/Trade,

Price Elasticities of Key Agricultural Commodities in China

We estimate a simultaneous equations model of Chinese markets for wheat, rice, corn, pork, and poultry. Elasticities for consumption, feed demand, production, stocks demand, and foreign trade fall within the range of results from previous studies, and are reasonable magnitudes. China has market power in the trade for all commodities.Marketing,

Impacts of Sugar Free Trade Agreements on the U.S. Sugar Industry

We use a multi-region GTAP model to study the implications of a global sugar free trade agreement on the U.S. sugar industry. In general, the sugar net importing countries such as the former Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States would reduce sugar production and increase their net imports from the world market. By contrast, the sugar net exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil, and Thailand would increase their sugar production and increase their net exports. Under a scenario where import tariffs and export subsidies are completely eliminated, U.S. sugar production would decrease by 2.8%. This is in contrast to some of the previous studies, which argued that the U.S. sugar production would increase slightly annually. U.S. import prices would decrease by 21.9% and U.S. domestic sugar prices would decrease slightly by 0.8%. U.S. net imports of sugar of sugar would increase 478.1 million US dollars.International Relations/Trade,

Implications of Growth in China for the U.S. and Other Countries

We investigate the effects of China's economic growth on various sectors in the United States and other countries and regions, using a multi-region Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results indicate that all countries and regions, except South Korea and South Asian countries, would benefit from China's rapid economic growth. The welfare gain varies significantly across the countries and regions. Hong Kong and Taiwan would benefit the most from mainland China's economic growth in terms of per capita welfare gains. U.S. bilateral trade balance with China would improve in the sectors of grain and other primary agricultural products, but it would deteriorate in the sectors of textiles and high-tech manufacturing products.International Development,

Economic Growth under Globalization: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

It has been controversial among economists about the impacts of globalization on growth, and the debate over the issue has intensified in recent years. In this study, we employ reliable panel data and an empirical growth model derived from production theory to investigate the effects of globalization on economic growth. The estimation results strongly suggest that economic globalization has a significant positive effect on economic growth for all countries. However, China and India would gain the most, followed by developed countries, and other developing countries would gain the least. Other important determinants of economic growth include capital, human capital, and technology.Globalization, Economic growth, Measure of Economic Globalization, International Development, F15, F43,

Implications of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement for Agriculture and other Sectors of the Economy

This paper examines the effects of the U.S.-Korea free trade agreement (KORUS FTA) on various sectors of the economy in the two countries using a general equilibrium model. Additional analysis focuses on the agricultural sector. Our analysis indicates that the increase in U.S.-Korea bilateral trade volume in recent years has been through intra-industry trade of high-technology products. Under the KORUS FTA, the bilateral trade volume would increase for virtually all the sectors, and GDP and social welfare would improve for both countries. However, producers of textile products in the United States and producers of agricultural and food products in South Korea would suffer from the FTA. This agreement could benefit U.S. agriculture, but the benefits could be greater in the long run as duties on beef and other meat products are eliminated.Korea, Free trade agreement, Trade creation, Trade diversion, International Relations/Trade,

The Growing U.S. Trade Deficit in Consumer-Oriented Agricultural Products

We investigate the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit. An increase in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries would improve U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food manufactures, a strong U.S. dollar and NAFTA are found to have negative effects on U.S. trade balance.Consumer-oriented agricultural products, trade balance, trade deficit, exchange rate, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, F14, Q17,

Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance in Consumer-Oriented Agricultural Products

This study investigates the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural and food products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit. Increases in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries improve the U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food processing, a strong U.S. dollar, and NAFTA are found to have negative effects on the U.S. trade balance.Consumer-oriented products, trade balance, trade deficit, exchange rate, International Relations/Trade,

Growing U.S. Trade Deficit in Consumer-Oriented Agricultural Products

We investigate the factors behind the growing U.S. trade deficit in consumer-oriented agricultural products by using reliable panel data and an empirical trade model derived from international trade theory. The results indicate that per capita income in the United States appears to be the most important determinant for the growing U.S. trade deficit of consumer-oriented agricultural products. An increase in per capita income and trade liberalization in foreign countries would improve the U.S. trade balance. U.S. foreign direct investment abroad in food manufactures and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are found to have negative effects on the U.S. trade balance.consumer-oriented products, exchange rate, trade balance, trade deficit, Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade, F14, Q17,