Racial/Ethnic and Age Differences in the Direct and Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on US Mortality

Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ ethnicity-specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of "excess" mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality

Leveraging auxiliary data to improve precision in inverse probability-weighted analyses

Purpose: To demonstrate improvements in the precision of inverse probability-weighted estimators by use of auxiliary variables, i.e., determinants of the outcome that are independent of treatment, missingness or selection. Methods: First with simulated data, and then with public data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we estimated the mean of a continuous outcome using inverse probability weights to account for informative missingness. We assessed gains in precision resulting from the inclusion of auxiliary variables in the model for the weights. We compared the performance of robust and nonparametric bootstrap variance estimators in this setting. Results: We found that the inclusion of auxiliary variables reduced the empirical variance of inverse probability-weighted estimators. However, that reduction was not captured in standard errors computed using the robust variance estimator, which is widely used in weighted analyses due to the non-independence of weighted observations. In contrast, a nonparametric bootstrap estimator properly captured the precision gain. Conclusions: Epidemiologists can leverage auxiliary data to improve the precision of weighted estimators by using bootstrap variance estimation, or a closed-form variance estimator that properly accounts for the estimation of the weights, in place of the standard robust variance estimator

Generativity and Engagement in Grandparenting Activities Among Older Adults in Northern Sri Lanka

Generativity refers to the desire to pass on one's skills, knowledge, and wisdom to future generations; this may be a clear indicator of the likelihood of older adults investing time and effort in engagement with their grandchildren. This cross-sectional study examines the relationship between generative beliefs and an index of multiple potential grandparenting activities. The data come from a convenience sample of 79 grandparents (aged 55+) living in Sri Lanka, a society experiencing rapid growth in its population of older adults. Regression analyses demonstrate that more endorsement of generative beliefs among older adults is associated with increased engagement in various grandparenting activities, with the strongest associations with reading, singing songs, and helping grandchildren with schoolwork or teaching them. Our findings suggest that generativity may be important for understanding the relationship between grandparenting and improved well-being for older adults

A Geography of Risk: Structural Racism and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality in the United States

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is disproportionately burdening racial and ethnic minority groups in the United States. Higher risks of infection and mortality among racialized minorities are a consequence of structural racism, reflected in specific policies that date back centuries and persist today. Yet our surveillance activities do not reflect what we know about how racism structures risk. When measuring racial and ethnic disparities in deaths due to COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention statistically accounts for the geographic distribution of deaths throughout the United States to reflect the fact that deaths are concentrated in areas with different racial and ethnic distributions from those of the larger United States. In this commentary, we argue that such an approach misses an important driver of disparities in COVID-19 mortality, namely the historical forces that determine where individuals live, work, and play, and that consequently determine their risk of dying from COVID-19. We explain why controlling for geography downplays the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on racialized minority groups in the United States. Finally, we offer recommendations for the analysis of surveillance data to estimate racial disparities, including shifting from distribution-based to risk-based measures, to help inform a more effective and equitable public health response to the pandemic

The burden of HIV among female sex workers, men who have sex with men and transgender women in Haiti: results from the 2016 Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) study

Introduction: Despite the higher risk of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs), men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW), these populations are under-represented in the literature on HIV in Haiti. Here, we present the first nationally representative estimates of HIV prevalence and the first care and treatment cascade for FSWs, MSM and TGW in Haiti. We also examine the social determinants of HIV prevalence in these groups and estimate FSW and MSM population size in Haiti. Methods: Data were collected between April 2016 and February 2017 throughout the 10 geographical departments of Haiti. The Priorities for Local AIDS Control Efforts (PLACE) method was used to: (1) recruit participants for a behavioural survey; (2) provide rapid testing, counselling and linkage to care for syphilis and HIV; and (3) measure viral load using dried blood spots for participants testing HIV positive. Results: Study participants included 990 FSWs, 520 MSM and 109 TGW. HIV prevalence was estimated at 7.7% (95% CI 6.2%, 9.6%) among FSWs, 2.2% (0.9%, 5.3%) among MSM and 27.6% (5.0%, 73.5%) among TGW. Of participants who tested positive for syphilis, 17% of FSWs, 19% of MSM and 74% of TGW were co-infected with HIV. Economic instability and intimate partner violence (IPV) were significantly associated with HIV among MSM; food insecurity, economic instability and history of rape were significantly associated with HIV among TGW. Fewer than one-third of participants living with HIV knew their status, and more than a quarter of those who knew their status were not on treatment. While approximately four in five FSW and MSM participants on treatment for HIV were virally suppressed, viral suppression was less common among TGW participants at only 46%. Conclusions: This study demonstrates a need for targeted interventions to prevent and treat HIV among key populations in Haiti. Potential high-impact interventions may include venue-based, peer navigator-led outreach and testing for HIV and syphilis and improving screening and case management for structural violence and IPV. TGW are in urgent need of such interventions due to our observations of alarmingly high HIV prevalence and low frequency of HIV viral suppression among TGW

Grandparenting Activities and Mental Health in Northern Sri Lanka

Grandparenting activities are of increasing interest to researchers seeking to understand reduced social engagement and depression among aging adults. Heterogeneity in the population and caretaking roles complicate its measurement. We piloted a measure of grandparenting activities among 79 grandparents (aged 55+) in Sri Lanka and correlated those activity levels with psychological distress. Second, we explored whether the aforementioned correlation varied by grandparent functional limitations. We found that greater engagement in generative grandparenting activities was correlated with lower distress, and that association was stronger among grandparents with more functional limitations. We discuss possible explanations and implications of these findings

Timing of HIV testing among pregnant and breastfeeding women and risk of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Malawi: a sampling-based cohort study

Introduction: Pregnant women living with HIV can achieve viral suppression and prevent HIV mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) with timely HIV testing and early ART initiation and maintenance. Although it is recommended that pregnant women undergo HIV testing early in antenatal care in Malawi, many women test positive during breastfeeding because they did not have their HIV status ascertained during pregnancy, or they tested negative during pregnancy but seroconverted postpartum. We sought to estimate the association between the timing of last positive HIV test (during pregnancy vs. breastfeeding) and outcomes of maternal viral suppression and MTCT in Malawi’s PMTCT programme. Methods: We conducted a two-stage cohort study among mother–infant pairs in 30 randomly selected high-volume health facilities across five nationally representative districts of Malawi between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2017. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PR) and risk ratios (RR) for associations between timing of last positive HIV test (i.e. breastfeeding vs. pregnancy) and maternal viral suppression and MTCT, controlling for confounding using inverse probability weighting. Results: Of 822 mother–infant pairs who had available information on the timing of the last positive HIV test, 102 mothers (12.4%) had their last positive test during breastfeeding. Women who lived one to two hours (PR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.29 to 3.58) or >2 hours (PR = 2.36; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.10) travel time to the nearest health facility were more likely to have had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding compared to women living <1 hour travel time to the nearest health facility. The risk of unsuppressed VL did not differ between women who had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding versus pregnancy (adjusted RR [aRR] = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.48 to 1.57). MTCT risk was higher among women who had their last positive HIV test during breastfeeding compared to women who had it during pregnancy (aRR = 6.57; 95% CI: 3.37 to 12.81). Conclusions: MTCT in Malawi occurred disproportionately among women with a last positive HIV test during breastfeeding. Testing delayed until the postpartum period may lead to higher MTCT. To optimize maternal and child health outcomes, PMTCT programmes should focus on early ART initiation and providing targeted testing, prevention, treatment and support to breastfeeding women

Demographic Trends in US HIV Diagnoses, 2008–2017: Data Movies

In this editorial, we introduce the data movie as a tool for investigating and communicating changing patterns of disease using the example of HIV in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently tracks all new HIV diagnoses through the National HIV Surveillance System. Understanding what these data tell us is critical to the goal of ending the HIV epidemic in the United States.1 However, summarizing trends across multiple population characteristics simultaneously—for example, exploring how the age distribution of new diagnoses varies by geographic region and how that relationship has changed over time—can be difficult. Because data movies allow us to visualize complex relationships more easily than large tables or paneled figures, they can help us take full advantage of our increasingly rich national surveillance data

Adverse childhood experiences and depression among women in rural Pakistan

Background: Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are a common pathway to adult depression. This pathway is particularly important during the perinatal period when women are at an elevated risk for depression. However, this relationship has not been explored in South Asia. This study estimates the association between ACEs and women’s (N = 889) depression at 36 months postpartum in rural Pakistan. Method: Data come from the Bachpan Cohort study. To capture ACEs, an adapted version of the ACE-International Questionnaire was used. Women’s depression was measured using both major depressive episodes (MDE) and depressive symptom severity. To assess the relationship between ACEs and depression, log-Poisson models were used for MDE and linear regression models for symptom severity. Results: The majority (58%) of women experienced at least one ACE domain, most commonly home violence (38.3%), followed by neglect (20.1%). Women experiencing four or more ACEs had the most pronounced elevation of symptom severity (β = 3.90; 95% CL = 2.13, 5.67) and MDE (PR = 2.43; 95% CL = 1.37, 4.32). Symptom severity (β = 2.88; 95% CL = 1.46, 4.31), and MDE (PR = 2.01; 95% CL = 1.27, 3.18) were greater for those experiencing community violence or family distress (β = 2.04; 95%; CL = 0.83, 3.25) (PR = 1.77; 95% CL = 1.12, 2.79). Conclusions: Findings suggest that ACEs are substantively distinct and have unique relationships to depression. They signal a need to address women’s ACEs as part of perinatal mental health interventions and highlight women’s lifelong experiences as important factors to understanding current mental health. Trial registration: NCT02111915. Registered 11 April 2014. NCT02658994. Registered 22 January 2016. Both trials were prospectively registered

A new smoking cessation 'cascade' among women with or at risk for HIV infection

Objectives:The aim of this study was to define a smoking cessation 'cascade' among USA women with and without HIV and examine differences by sociodemographic characteristics.Design:An observational cohort study using data from smokers participating in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 2014 and 2019.Methods:We followed 1165 women smokers with and without HIV from their first study visit in 2014 or 2015 until an attempt to quit smoking within approximately 3 years of follow-up, initial cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 6 months of a quit attempt), and sustained cessation (i.e. no restarting smoking within approximately 12 months of a quit attempt). Using the Aalen-Johansen estimator, we estimated the cumulative probability of achieving each step, accounting for the competing risk of death.Results:Forty-five percent of smokers attempted to quit, 27% achieved initial cessation, and 14% achieved sustained cessation with no differences by HIV status. Women with some post-high school education were more likely to achieve each step than those with less education. Outcomes did not differ by race. Thirty-six percent [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 31-42] of uninsured women attempted to quit compared with 47% (95% CI: 44-50) with Medicaid and 49% (95% CI: 41-59) with private insurance.Conclusion:To decrease smoking among USA women with and without HIV, targeted, multistage interventions, and increased insurance coverage are needed to address shortfalls along this cascade