Development of a daily gridded precipitation data set for the Middle East

We show an algorithm to construct a rain-gauge-based analysis of daily precipitation for the Middle East. One of the key points of our algorithm is to construct an accurate distribution of climatology. One possible advantage of this product is to validate high-resolution climate models and/or to diagnose the impact of climate changes on local hydrological resources. Many users are familiar with a monthly precipitation dataset (New et al., 1999) and a satellite-based daily precipitation dataset (Huffman et al., 2001), yet our data set, unlike theirs, clearly shows the effect of orography on daily precipitation and other extreme events, especially over the Fertile Crescent region. Currently the Middle-East precipitation analysis product is consisting of a 25-year data set for 1979–2003 based on more than 1300 stations

Comparing high-resolution gridded precipitation data with satellite rainfall estimates of TRMM_3B42 over Iran

To evaluate satellite rainfall estimates of Tropical Rain Measurement Mission (TRMM) level 3 output (3B42) (TRMM_3B42) over Iran (20°–45° N, 40°–65° E), we compared these data with high-resolution gridded precipitation datasets (0.25°×0.25° latitude/longitude) based on rain gauges (Iran Synoptic gauges Version 0902 (IS0902)). Spatial distribution of mean annual and mean seasonal rainfall in both IS0902 and TRMM_3B42 from 1998 to 2006 shows two main rainfall patterns along the Caspian Sea and over the Zagros Mountains. Scatter plots of annual average rainfall from IS0902 versus TRMM_3B42 for each 0.25°×0.25° grid cell over the entire country (25°–40° N, 45°–60° E), along the Caspian Sea (35°–40° N, 48°–56° E), and over the Zagros Mountains (28°–37° N, 46°–55° E) were derived. For the entire country, the Caspian Sea region, and the Zagros Mountains, TRMM_3B42 underestimates mean annual precipitation by 0.17, 0.39, and 0.15 mm day^−1, respectively, and the mean annual rainfall spatial correlation coefficients are 0.77, 0.57, and 0.75, respectively. The mean annual precipitation temporal correlation coefficient for IS0902 and TRMM_3B42 is ~0.8 in the area along the Zagros Mountains, and ~0.6 in the Caspian Sea and desert regions

Таксононімія логічних девіацій у нормативно-правових актах

Розглянуто особливості логічних девіацій у текстах нормативно-правових актів, які є складовою частиною офіційно-ділового стилю української літературної мови. Запропоновано власний підхід до класифікації виявлених у текстах чинних кодексів логічно аномальних уживань.The features of the logical deviations in the texts of laws which belong to the official style of Ukrainian literary language is under consideration. The taxonomy for the notion above in Ukrainian laws is proposed

On northern-hemisphere wave patterns associated with winter rainfall events in China

During extended winter (November-April) 43% of the intraseasonal rainfall variability in China is explained by three spatial patterns of temporally coherent rainfall. These patterns were identified with Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis of observed 1982-2007 pentad rainfall anomalies and connected to midlatitude disturbances. However, examination of individual strong EOT events shows that there is substantial inter-event variability in their dynamical evolution, which implies that precursor patterns found in regressions cannot serve as useful predictors. To understand the physical nature and origins of the extratropical precursors, the EOT technique is applied to six simulations of the Met Office Unified Model at horizontal resolutions of 200--40 km and with and without air-sea coupling. All simulations reproduce the observed precursor patterns in regressions, indicating robust underlying dynamical processes. Further investigation into the dynamics associated with observed patterns shows that Rossby wave dynamics can explain the large inter-event variability. The results suggest that the apparently slowly evolving or quasi-stationary waves in regression analysis are a statistical amalgamation of more rapidly propagating waves with a variety of origins and properties

Transcriptional Infidelity Promotes Heritable Phenotypic Change in a Bistable Gene Network

Bistable epigenetic switches are fundamental for cell fate determination in unicellular and multicellular organisms. Regulatory proteins associated with bistable switches are often present in low numbers and subject to molecular noise. It is becoming clear that noise in gene expression can influence cell fate. Although the origins and consequences of noise have been studied, the stochastic and transient nature of RNA errors during transcription has not been considered in the origin or modeling of noise nor has the capacity for such transient errors in information transfer to generate heritable phenotypic change been discussed. We used a classic bistable memory module to monitor and capture transient RNA errors: the lac operon of Escherichia coli comprises an autocatalytic positive feedback loop producing a heritable all-or-none epigenetic switch that is sensitive to molecular noise. Using single-cell analysis, we show that the frequency of epigenetic switching from one expression state to the other is increased when the fidelity of RNA transcription is decreased due to error-prone RNA polymerases or to the absence of auxiliary RNA fidelity factors GreA and GreB (functional analogues of eukaryotic TFIIS). Therefore, transcription infidelity contributes to molecular noise and can effect heritable phenotypic change in genetically identical cells in the same environment. Whereas DNA errors allow genetic space to be explored, RNA errors may allow epigenetic or expression space to be sampled. Thus, RNA infidelity should also be considered in the heritable origin of altered or aberrant cell behaviour

Impact of transient groundwater storage on the discharge of Himalayan rivers

International audienceIn the course of the transfer of precipitation into rivers, water is temporarily stored in reservoirs with different residence times such as soils, groundwater, snow and glaciers. In the central Himalaya, the water budget is thought to be primarily controlled by monsoon rainfall, snow and glacier melt, and secondarily by evapotranspiration. An additional contribution from deep groundwater has been deduced from the chemistry of Himalayan rivers, but its importance in the annual water budget remains to be evaluated. Here we analyse records of daily precipitation and discharge within twelve catchments in Nepal over about 30 years. We observe annual hysteresis loops--that is, a time lag between precipitation and discharge--in both glaciated and unglaciated catchments and independent of the geological setting. We infer that water is stored temporarily in a reservoir with characteristic response time of about 45 days, suggesting a diffusivity typical of fractured basement aquifers. We estimate this transient storage capacity at about 28km3 for the three main Nepal catchments; snow and glacier melt contribute around 14km3yr-1, about 10% of the annual river discharge. We conclude that groundwater storage in a fractured basement influences significantly the Himalayan river discharge cycle

Discrete seasonal hydroclimate reconstructions over northern Vietnam for the past three and a half centuries

We present a 350-year hydroclimatic year (HY) index for northern Vietnam derived from three discrete seasonal reconstructions from tree rings: an index of autumn rainfall from the earlywood widths of Chinese Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis), the first such record from this species, and two nearby published Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions from cypress (Fokienia hodginsii) tree rings for spring and summer, respectively. Autumn rainfall over the study region constitutes only around 9% of the annual total, but its variability is strongly linked to the strength of the atmospheric gradient over Asia during the transition from the boreal summer to winter monsoons. Deficit or surplus of autumn rainfall enhances or mitigates, respectively, the impact of the annual winter dry season on trees growing on porous karst hillsides. The most protracted HY drought (dry across all seasons) occurred at the turn of the twentieth century at a time of relative quiet, but a mid-to-late eighteenth century multi-year HY drought coincided with a period of great societal turmoil across mainland Southeast Asia and the Tay Son Rebellion in northern Vietnam. A mid-nineteenth century uprising accompanied by a smallpox epidemic, crop failure and famine, occurred during the worst autumn drought of the past two and a half centuries but only moderate drought in spring and summer. The “Great Vietnamese Famine” of the mid-twentieth century was dry only in autumn, with a wet spring and an average summer

Testing of aspheric surfaces with computer generated holograms

Aspherical surfaces are becoming more important and can even be mass producted. There is a need for flexible test methods of high accuracy. The paper describes the combination of a computer generated holograms with a partially compensating lens as a powerful tool. An example for testing a steep aspheric surface will be given

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors