PREDICTING THE RANDOM: UNDERSTANDING ISLAMIST LONE WOLF TERRORISM

Although Islamist lone wolf terrorism seems to be defined by its very randomness, the actors themselves can be predictable. This thesis examines four case studies of seemingly disparate terrorist attacks conducted by Islamist lone wolf actors and identifies seven specific commonalities that contribute to an increased potential for self-radicalization. Furthermore, it examines stochastic violence in the context of 21st century jihad. Today the lone wolf is the weapon of the stochastic terrorist. The four case studies are 1) Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, 2016; 2) Soldier Readiness Processing Center, Fort Hood, Texas, 2009; 3) Bastille Day, Nice, France, 2016; and 4) San Bernardino, California, 2015. The seven commonalities are 1) engrossment in radical messaging/propaganda on the internet; 2) first- or second-generation immigrant; 3) reduction of personal effects/finances; 4) affinity with extremist group(s); 5) rapid shift in beliefs or mosque attendance; 6) withdrawal from, or absence of, family/friends/romantic relationships; and 7) sexuality (repression or guilt).Major, United States ArmyMajor, United States ArmyApproved for public release. distribution is unlimite