Vergi gelirlerinin tahminlenmesine yönelik ekonometrik model

Vergi gelirleri, Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli gelir kalemlerinden birisidir. Vergi gelirleri güçlü bir ekonominin en önemli göstergesidir. Ülkemizde yıllar itibariyle vergi gelirleri sürekli bir artış göstermiş ve 2018 yılı itibariyle vergi gelirlerinin tutarı milli gelirin %24’ü seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Kalkınma Bakanlığınca, Orta Vadeli Program/Orta Vadeli Mali Plan içerisinde gerçekleştirilen vergi gelirleri tahminleri büyük sapmalar göstermektedir. Bu çalışma içerisinde öncelikle vergi gelirleri serisinin tarihsel süreç içerisindeki gelişimi ve yapısı incelenip, Kalkınma Bakanlığınca yapılan tahminlerin sonuçları detaylı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu makale ARIMA metodunun sonuçlarının, devlet kurumlarının sonuçlarından daha iyi olduğunu göstermiştir

Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Krediler ile Mevduatlar Arasındaki Açığın Kaynağı Nedir ?

Turkish banking sector has realized serious reconstruction after the 2001 crisis. Turkish banks left to finance government debts and has turned to their intermediation activities . However, Turkish banks broke the traditional loans-deposits balance and led to situation that loans have surpassed the deposits in the system. This article tries to indicate that the growth of gap between loans and deposits in Turkish banking system results from cross curreny swap transactions and these transactions change the composition of Turkish banks’ liabilities in favour of FX liabilities

Vergi gelirlerinin tahminlenmesine yönelik ekonometrik model

Vergi gelirleri, Türkiye ekonomisinin en önemli gelir kalemlerinden birisidir. Vergi gelirleri güçlü bir ekonominin en önemli göstergesidir. Ülkemizde yıllar itibariyle vergi gelirleri sürekli bir artış göstermiş ve 2018 yılı itibariyle vergi gelirlerinin tutarı milli gelirin %24’ü seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Kalkınma Bakanlığınca, Orta Vadeli Program/Orta Vadeli Mali Plan içerisinde gerçekleştirilen vergi gelirleri tahminleri büyük sapmalar göstermektedir. Bu çalışma içerisinde öncelikle vergi gelirleri serisinin tarihsel süreç içerisindeki gelişimi ve yapısı incelenip, Kalkınma Bakanlığınca yapılan tahminlerin sonuçları detaylı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu makale ARIMA metodunun sonuçlarının, devlet kurumlarının sonuçlarından daha iyi olduğunu göstermiştir

Global Well-posedness for the Biharmonic Quintic Nonlinear Schr\"odinger Equation on R2\mathbb{R}^2

We prove that the Cauchy problem for the 2D quintic defocusing biharmonic Schr\"odinger equation is globally well-posed in the Sobolev spaces $H^s(\mathbb{R}^2)$ for $\frac{8}{7}<s<2$. Our main ingredient to establish the result is the $I$-method of Colliander-Keel-Staffilani-Takaoka-Tao \cite{colliander2002almost} which is used to construct the modified energy functional that is conserved in time

2-Chloro-N′-[4-(dimethyl­amino)­benzyl­idene]-N-[4-(3-methyl-3-phenyl­cyclo­but­yl)-1,3-thia­zol-2-yl]acetohydrazide

The mol­ecular conformation of the title compound, C25H27ClN4OS, is stabilized by an intra­molecular benzyl­idine C—H⋯Nthia­zole hydrogen bond. The thiazole ring makes dihedral angles of 12.0 (3) and 20.4 (2)°, respectively, with the phenyl and benzene rings, while the phenyl and benzene rings make a dihedral angle of 22.6 (2)°. The crystal packing involves weak inter­molecular thia­zole C—H⋯Ocarbon­yl and methyl C—H⋯π hydrogen-bonding associations

The Determinants of Price Frequency in Turkey

The effect of monetary and fiscal policy on the output depends on the frequency of price changes. When the prices change infrequently or prices change slowly, monetary and fiscal policy have a real effects on the output. Developed countries generally have a rigid prices but developing countries have a relatively flexible prices. This difference is originated from the reality that the developing countries have higher average inflation than the developed countries. Economic literature focuses on the micro reasons of the frequency of price changes, on the other hand, the inflation is seen the main factor which affects the frequency of price changes in the macro perspective. This study holds down the assumption that the frequency of price changes is a function of the inflation rate in the macro perspective. In addition to this, it is also focused on the direct relationships between the frequency of price changes and the macro variables which affect the inflation rate. It is revealed the effect of macro factors on the frequency of price changes in this work. It is concluded that the determinants of the frequency of price changes in the macro perspective in Turkey are the expected inflation and the exchange rate rather than output gap. It can be said that firms’ price frequency behavior directly depends on cost push factors in Turkey

The Relation between Money, Interest and Consumption in Developing Countries: The Case of Turkey

As the basis of the current economic approach, comes to the fore the intertemporal utility function of decision-making economic units. Decision-making economic units decide their expenditures upon the substitution of their future utility for present utility. They defer present consumption and head for making savings. Yet, the exact opposite may also apply. Changes in the policy decisions of monetary authority have impacts on the intertemporal utility maximization of economic units as well. In this study, the question whether the amount or the price of the money affects the aggregate demand in Turkish economy was examined within the framework of dynamic optimization. The results showed that in Turkish economy where nominal income expectations are high, the resource and loan creation would increase and that when the central bank increase the interest rates to hinder this process, consumption would head up even more

Nietzsche’nin Zerdüşt’ünün Çınlayamadığı Kulaklar: Nietzsche 21. Yüzyıl İnsanına Ahlak Üzerine Ne Söyleyebilir?

In this article, it has been aimed to examine Nietzsche’s main critique towards different understandings of morals in his era. With this criticism, it is aimed to integrally understand the opinions -which are articulated directly or metaphorically- towards morals which have been encountered. In here, while keeping in mind the difference between the concepts of immoralism and amoralism, Nietzsche’s views are interpreted. Being parallel to that aim mentioned above, it has been investigated if there is a thinking in Nietzsche which can be seen as a kind of understanding of morals (maybe as the understanding of morals without morals) or not. And finally, it has been thought that if Nietzsche’s views on morals have any value for the 21st century and upcoming 22nd century human or not, whether there’s something left to learn for this human from his critiques or not