International Reserves and the Composition of Equity Capital Inflows

We study the effect of central banks’ international reserve hoardings on the composition of equity capital inflows, namely the ratio of portfolio equity investment (PEI) to foreign direct investment (FDI). Foreign investors’ decisions regarding the location and the type of equity capital investment might be influenced by a country’s level of international reserves. In a simple theoretical model, we show that higher reserves, thanks to their ability to lower exchange rate risk, reduce the risk premium of portfolio equity inflows. Hence, higher reserves are expected to increase the inflow of portfolio equity investment relative to FDI. We test this hypothesis for a sample of emerging markets during the period 1980-2007 using static and dynamic panel data methods. The results suggest that higher levels of reserves are associated with a larger ratio of PEI inflows relative to FDI. This result points to a collateral benefit of reserves that has been neglected so far: Reserves contribute to deeper domestic financial markets and facilitate domestic firms’ access to foreign financing.International Reserves, Capital Inflows, Equity Capital

The Empirics of China's Outward Direct Investment

We investigate the empirical determinants of China’s outward direct investment (ODI). It is found that China’s investments in developed and developing countries are driven by different sets of factors. Subject to the differences between developed and developing countries, there is evidence that a) both market seeking and resources seeking motives drive China’s ODI, b) the Chinese exports to developing countries induce China’s ODI, c) China’s international reserves promote its ODI, and d) the Chinese capital tends to agglomerate among developed economies but diversify among developing economies. Similar results are obtained using alternative ODI data. We do not find substantial evidence that China invests in African and oil-producing countries mainly for their natural resources.market seeking, resources seeking, servicing exports, international reserves, agglomeration effect

Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup’s Wardrobe and the Joneses

Motivated by the observed international reserve hoarding behavior in the post-1997 crisis period, we explore the Mrs Machlup’s wardrobe hypothesis and the related keeping up with the Joneses argument. It is conceived that, in addition to psychological reasons, holding a relatively high level of international reserves reduces the vulnerability to speculative attacks and promotes growth. A stylized model is constructed to illustrate this type of hoarding behavior. The relevance of the keeping up with the Joneses effect is examined using a few plausible empirical specifications and data from 10 East Asian economies. Panel-based regression results are suggestive of the presence of the Joneses effect; especially in the post-1997 crisis period. Individual economy estimation results, however, show that the Joneses effect varies across economies.demand for international reserves, excessive international reserve accumulation, speculative attack, keeping up with the Joneses

Capital Flight: China's Experience

We study the empirical determinants of China’s capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China’s capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China’s capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones.covered interest differential, forward premium, expected depreciation, asymmetric response, macro determinants

International Reserves, External Debt Maturity, and the Reinforcement Effect for Financial Stability

This paper studies how the maturity structure of external debt is affected by internationalreserves and how they reinforce financial stability through a more crisis-resilientmaturity structure. We show in an illustrative theoretical model that reserves lengthenthe maturity of external debt via a flattening of the yield curve. Using data of 66 emergingand developing countries and applying different econometric approaches, we find robustevidence that reserves increase the share of long-term (LT) relative to short-term (ST)external debt. Results hold for private and public external debt individually. Takingreserves and their effect on the debt maturity structure together, they reinforce financialstability

Hoarding of international reserves: Mrs Machlup's wardrobe and the joneses

Motivated by the observed international reserve hoarding behavior in the post-1997 crisis period, we explore the Mrs Machlup's wardrobe hypothesis and the related keeping up with the Joneses argument. It is conceived that, in addition to psychological reasons, holding a relatively high level of international reserves reduces the vulnerability to speculative attacks and promotes growth. A stylized model is constructed to illustrate this type of hoarding behavior. The relevance of the keeping up with the Joneses effect is examined using a few plausible empirical specifications and data from 10 East Asian economies. Panel-based regression results are suggestive of the presence of the Joneses effect; especially in the post-1997 crisis period. Individual economy estimation results, however, show that the Joneses effect varies across economies

Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?

We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices – as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate – but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the Chinese renminbi (RMB) appreciates. However, the estimated income elasticity is sensitive to the treatment of time trends. Estimates of aggregate imports are more problematic. In many cases, Chinese aggregate imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation and decline with Chinese GDP. This is true even after accounting for the fact a substantial share of imports are subsequently incorporated into Chinese exports. We find that some of these counter-intuitive results are mitigated when we disaggregate the trade flows by customs type, commodity type, and the type of firm undertaking the transactions. However, for imports, we only obtain more reasonable estimates of elasticities when we allow for different import intensities for different components of aggregate demand (specifically, consumption versus investment), or when we include a relative productivity variable.

Capital flight: China's experience

We study the empirical determinants of China's capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China's capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China's capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones

The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows

We examine Chinese-US trade flows over the 1994-2012 period, and find that, in line with the conventional wisdom, the value of China's exports to the US responds negatively to real renminbi (RMB) appreciation, while import responds positively. Further, the combined empirical price effects on exports and imports imply an increase in the real value of the RMB will reduce China's trade balance. The use of alternative exchange rate measures and data on different trade classifications yields additional insights. Firms more subject to market forces exhibit greater price sensitivity. The price elasticity is larger for ordinary exports than for processing exports. Finally, accounting for endogeneity and measurement error matters. Hence, the purging the real exchange rate of the portion responding to policy, or using the deviation of the real exchange rate from the equilibrium level yields a stronger measured effect than when using the unadjusted bilateral exchange rate