15 Years of New Growth Economics: What Have We Learnt?

Paul Romer’s paper Increasing Returns and Long Run Growth, now 15 years old, led to resurgence in the research on economic growth. Since then, growth literature has expanded dramatically and has shifted the research focus of many generations of macroeconomists. The new line of work has emphasized the role of human capital, social and political variables, as well as the importance of institutions as driving forces of long-run economic growth. This paper presents an insight into the theoretical and empirical literature of the past fifteen years, highlighting the most significant contributions for our understanding of economics.

15 years of new growth economics: What have we learnt?

This paper evaluates the empirical and theoretical contributions of the Economic Growth Literature since the publication of Paul Romer’s seminal paper in 1986.Economic gowth, technological progress, empirics of growth

I just ran four million regressions

In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method of identifying ``robust'' empirical relations in the economic growth literature. Instead of analyzing the extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficient of a particular variable, I analyze the entire distribution. My claim in this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from the empirical growth literature is not the pessimistic ``Nothing is Robust'' that we get with the extreme bound analysis. Instead, we find that a substantial number of variables can be found to be strongly related to growth.Economic growth, growth regressions, empirical determinants of economic growth

Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria

Some natural resources -- oil and minerals in particular -- exert a negative and nonlinear impact on growth via their deleterious impact on institutional quality. We show this result to be very robust. The Nigerian experience provides telling confirmation of this aspect of natural resources. Waste and corruption from oil rather than Dutch disease has been responsible for its poor long run economic performance. We propose a solution for addressing this resource curse which involves directly distributing the oil revenues to the public. Even with all the difficulties of corruption and inefficiency that will no doubt plague its actual implementation, our proposal will, at the least, be vastly superior to the status quo. At best, however, it could fundamentally improve the quality of public institutions and, as a result, transform economics and politics in Nigeria.

Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe From the United States

The main goal of this paper is to estimate to what extent the federal government of the United States insures member states against regional income shocks. We find that a one dollar reduction in a region's per capita personal income triggers a decrease in federal taxes of about 34 cents and an increase in federal transfers of about 6 cents. Hence, the final reduction in disposable per capita income is on the order of 60 cents. That is, between one third and one half of the initial shock is absorbed by the federal government. The much larger reaction of taxes than transfers to these regional imbalances reflects the fact that the main mechanism at work is the federal income tax system which in turn means that the stabilization process is automatic rather than specifically designed each time there is a cyclical movement in income. Some economists may want to argue that this regional insurance scheme provided by the federal government is an important reason why the system of fixed exchange rates that exists within the United States today has survived without major problems. Under this view, the creation of a European Central Bank that issues unified European currency without the simultaneous introduction (or expansion) of a fiscal federalist system could put the project at risk. Rough calculations of the impact of the existing European tax system on regional income suggests that a one dollar shock to regional GDP will reduce tax payments to the EEC government by half a cent!. Hence, the current European tax system has a long way to go before it reaches the 34 cents of the U.S. Federal Government.

Financial Repression and Economic Growth

We survey the literatures that study the relation between the trade regime and growth and financial development, financial repression, and growth. We analyze the relation between the trade regime, the degree of financial development and the growth performance of a large cross section of countries. The systematic finding is that there is a negative relation between trade distortions and growth. We also present some variables that capture the degree to which the financial sector is distorted. We find that financial repression has negative consequences for growth. We also find that inflation- is negatively related to growth. We interpret this relation, however, as symptomatic rather than causal. We show that once we hold constant measures of the trade regime and financial repression, the regional dummies for Latin America are no longer significant. Thus, the poor performance of the Latin American countries over the last few decades is related to the trade and financial policies pursued by their governments.

The Wealth of Regions. Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence

This paper provides a short overview of some of the result, found in the recent empirical regional growth literature. It is argued that, in a variety of data sets, there are string forces leading towards convergence

The Wealth of Regions. Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence

This paper provides a short overview of some of the result, found in the recent empirical regional growth literature. It is argued that, in a variety of data sets, there are string forces leading towards convergence