Processing Trade, Exchange Rates, and the People’s Republic of China’s Bilateral Trade Balances

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan’s appreciation on processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering the PRC’s 51 trading partners from 1993–2008. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) processing trade accounts for 100% of the PRC’s overall trade surplus and can explain most of its bilateral trade balances; (2) the PRC’s processing trade shows a significant regional bias—its processing exports to East Asian economies are three times those to other regions while its processing imports from East Asian economies are eleven times those from other regions; (3) the PRC is one of the major sources of its own processing imports, accounting for 16.8% of its total processing imports from all 51 trading partners; and (4) the appreciation of the yuan would affect both processing imports and exports in the same direction—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only the PRC’s processing exports by 9.6% but also its processing imports by 3.9%. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have a very limited impact on the PRC’s trade balance.processing trade; east asia trade; bilateral trade balances; prc processing trade; yuan appreciation

China?s Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

This paper analyses China?s ICT exports growth in its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia?s exports.China, exports, ICT, Asia

Exchange rate policy and the relative distribution of FDI among host countries

This paper examines the FDI-exchange rate nexus in the context of one FDI source and two host countries. It focuses on the effect of exchange rates on relative FDI inflows between the two host countries. The theoretical analysis shows explicitly that relative FDI inflows are a function of relative real exchange rates. In particular, if one host country devalues its currency against that of the source country more than the other does, FDI into the former country will be expected to increase relative to the other country. The theoretical inference is examined with Japanese FDI in manufacturing industries of China and ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). The empirical results generally support the theoretical conclusion, suggesting that the real devaluation of the Chinese Yuan undercut FDI into the ASEAN-4.FDI; exchange rate; China; ASEAN-4

Foreign direct investment and China's bilateral intra-industry trade with Japan and the US

This paper analyzes dynamic changes of China's intra-industry trade with its major trading partners, Japan and the US, from 1980 to 2004. It also investigates to what extent foreign direct investment promoted intra-industry trade. The empirical results show that, while shares of China's intra-industry trade with both Japan and U.S rose substantially, its intra-industry trade with Japan has reached 35 per cent of the overall trade, considerably larger than 10 per cent with the US. Sino-Japan intra-industry trade concentrated in the electrical and machinery sectors accounted for 52 per cent and 46 per cent of overall trade respectively. On the other hand, it is in the chemical and food sectors where intra-industry trade represented a relatively large proportion of Sino-US trade, 50 per cent and 30 per cent accordingly in each sector. In addition, the analysis indicates that Japanese direct investment in China performed a significant role in enhancing intra-industry trade between Japan and China. However, it found no evidence that the US direct investment in China contributed to the growth of the bilateral intra-industry trade between the two countries.intra-industry trade; FDI; China

Exchange Rates and Competition for FDI

FDI, exchange rate, China, ASEAN-4

How the iPhone Widens the United States Trade Deficit with the People's Republic of China

In this paper, the authors use the iPhone as a case to show that even high-tech products invented by United States (US) companies will not increase US exports, but on the contrary exacerbate the US trade deficit. The iPhone contributed US$1.8 billion to the US trade deficit with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Unprecedented globalization, well organized global production networks, repaid development of cross-country production fragmentation, and low transportation costs all contributed to rational firms such as Apple making business decisions that contributed directly to the US trade deficit reduction. Global production networks and highly specialized production processes apparently reverse trade patterns: developing countries such as the PRC export high-tech goods—like the iPhone—while industrialized countries such as the US import the high-tech goods they themselves invented. In addition, conventional trade statistics greatly inflate bilateral trade deficits between a country used as export-platform by multinational firms and its destination countries.sino-us trade; apple iphone; world trade patterns

Processing trade, exchange rates, and the People's Republic of China's bilateral trade balances

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in the People's Republic of China (PRC)'s bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan's appreciation on processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering the PRC' 51 trading partners from 1993 - 2008. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) processing trade accounts for 100% of the PRC's overall trade surplus and can explain most of its bilateral trade balances; (2) the PRC's processing trade shows a significant regional bias - its processing exports to East Asian economies are three times those to other regions while its processing imports from East Asian economies are eleven times those from other regions; (3) the PRC is one of the major sources of its own processing imports, accounting for 16.8% of its total processing imports from all 51 trading partners; and (4) the appreciation of the yuan would affect both processing imports and exports in the same direction - specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only the PRC's processing exports by 9.6% but also its processing imports by 3.9%. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have a very limited impact on the PRC's trade balance

Measuring value added in the People's Republic of China's exports: A direct approach

We apply a direct approach to estimate domestic value added embedded in the People's Republic of China's (PRC) exports. The estimates suggest that the domestic value added of processing exports and processing high-tech exports gradually increased from 30% and 25%, to 44% and 45%, respectively, between 1997 and 2012. On the other hand, the domestic content of processing exports with supplied materials fell to 14% from the peak of 35%. In 2012, the domestic value added of the PRC's total exports remained below 77%. Our estimates prove to be the upper limits of the corresponding trade in value added. Compared to our estimates, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Trade in Value Added database (TiVA) significantly overestimates the domestic content of the PRC's exports. TiVA's estimates are also inconsistent with the fact that the share of processing exports in the PRC's total exports has decreased steadily. In addition, we show that the PRC's processing exports demonstrate significant heterogeneity across its trading partners; processing exports account for a large portion of total exports to high income countries but a relatively small portion of exports to low income countries. This heterogeneity implies that the domestic content of the PRC's exports varies significantly by destination

China's exports in ICT and its impact on Asian countries

This paper analyses China's ICT exports growth in its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's export

The yuan's exchange rates and pass-through effects on the prices of Japanese and US imports

This paper estimated the pass-through effects of yuan's exchange rates on prices of the US and Japanese imports from the People's Republic of China (PRC). Empirical results show that, a 1% nominal appreciation of the yuan would result in a 0.23% increase in prices of the US imports in the short run and 0.47% in the long run. Japanese import prices were relatively more responsive to changes of the bilateral exchange rates between the yuan and the yen. For a 1% nominal appreciation of the yuan against the yen, Japanese import prices would be expected to rise 0.55% in the short run and 0.99%, a complete pass-through, in the long run. The high degree of pass-through effects were also found at the disaggregated sectoral level: food, raw materials, apparel, manufacturing, and machinery. However, further analysis indicated that the high pass-through effects in the case of Japan were mainly attributed to the PRC's policy to peg the yuan to the United States (US) dollar, and that the dollar is used as a dominant invoicing currency for the PRC's exports to Japan. After controlling the currency invoicing factor, I found no evidence that the yuan's cumulative appreciation since July 2005 was passed on to prices of Japanese imports at either the aggregate or disaggregated levels. The estimated low pass-through effects of the yuan's appreciation suggest that a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have very little impact on the PRC's trade surplus