"Prospects for the U.S. and the World -- A Crisis That Conventional Remedies Cannot Resolve"

The economic recovery plans currently under consideration by the United States and many other countries seem to be concentrated on the possibility of using expansionary fiscal and monetary policies alone. In a new Strategic Analysis, the Levy Institute's Macro-Modeling Team argues that, however well coordinated, this approach will not be sufficient; what's required, they say, is a worldwide recovery of output, combined with sustainable balances in international trade.

Structural relaxation in the hydrogen-bonding liquids N-methylacetamide and water studied by optical Kerr-effect spectroscopy

Structural relaxation in the peptide model N-methylacetamide (NMA) is studied experimentally by ultrafast optical Kerr-effect spectroscopy over the normal-liquid temperature range and compared to the relaxation measured in water at room temperature. It is seen that in both hydrogen-bonding liquids, beta relaxation is present and in each case it is found that this can be described by the Cole-Cole function. For NMA in this temperature range, the alpha and beta relaxations are each found to have an Arrhenius temperature dependence with indistinguishable activation energies. It is known that the variations on the Debye function, including the Cole-Cole function, are unphysical, and we introduce two general modifications: one allows for the initial rise of the function, determined by the librational frequencies, and the second allows the function to be terminated in the alpha relaxation

"The U.S. Economy: Is There a Way Out of the Woods?"

This Strategic Analysis provides a retrospective view of U.S. growth in the last 10 years, showing that the authors’ previous work, grounded in the linkages between growth and the financial balances of the private, public, and foreign sectors of the economy, has proven a useful contribution to the public discussion. The analysis reviews recent events in the U.S. housing and financial markets to obtain a likely scenario for the evolution of household spending. It argues that a significant drop in borrowing is likely to take place in the coming quarters, with severe consequences for growth and unemployment, unless (1) the U.S. dollar is allowed to continue its fall and thus complete the recovery in the U.S. external imbalance, and (2) fiscal policy shifts its course—as it did in the 2001 recession.