Effectiveness of resilience assessment tools in different case studies

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Marinha e Aquacultura), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015Systems at times undergo abrupt, often undesirable changes termed regime shifts. Anticipating critical transitions requires the understanding of ecosystem resilience; however establishing operational resilience assessment tools remains a major hurdle assessed by the current study using different case studies. The first analysis, aiming at analysing the recovery time of macrobenthos in a coastal lagoon, evidenced the system previously underwent a regime shift. Only one taxon showed a significant recovery in response to the management action with the objective of improving the status of the lagoon. A lag in response time, hysteresis, constituted a major challenge for sound restoration management. The following studies assessed recently proposed statistical signals capable of anticipating shifts, early warning signals (EWS) as resilience assessment tools. First EWS were calculated on oyster landings with an oscillating trend and also catch rates characterized by an irreversible decline. In both cases the tools accurately reflected the stability of the respective trends of the case studies. Three bottlenecks related to the use of EWS were identified: the quality of the time series, EWS behaviour in cyclic dynamics and the influence of the turnover rate of the measures upon which EWS are calculated. Next EWS were applied to phytoplankton data of a regime shift in the North Sea, as an example of a biotic signal with fast turnover rate. In one case, the resilience loss was detected 12 years prior to the shift. The high-resolution data enabled advanced methodological testing confirming the robustness of the indicators and their trends. Finally a model was used to assess whether EWS might indicate a loss of cyclostationarity. It simulated three species in a competitive cycle: the first scenario oscillated stably while the second scenario was programmed with a gradually decaying resilience. Indeed EWS can be used to detect instabilities in cyclic phenomena, however the choice of the indicator remains essential. While hurdles do exist, we conclude that overall EWS are promising resilience assessment tools, and particularly recommendable considering the ease of their calculation.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), SFRH/BD/48402/2008; MARE (Centro de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente

La garantie des droits de l'Homme dans les limites écologiques : un défi réalisable ?

Mon mémoire traite de la question du développement durable, et plus précisément du lien entre les dommages écologiques et les droits de l'Homme. Il expose les instruments et les principes juridiques apportant des pistes de solution pour concilier l'urgence de réagir face aux dommages écologiques d'une part, et au besoin de développement des pays du Sud d'autre part.Master [120] en droit, Université catholique de Louvain, 201

The full energy cost of avoiding CO 2 : A clean-energy booking provision for a vigorous energy transition

International audienceCarbon tax, emission trading schemes and externality disclosures have not provided the incentive to replace fossil-carbon sourced energy as envisioned at the Paris Agreement 2015. Much of the enforcement of these schemes is outside the fossil hydrocarbon producer's control. As an alternate to these schemes, this paper proposes an inventive evaluation and accounting procedure, based on the energy penalty cost of decarbonizing fossil fuels. Such cost can be internalized within the producer's books, and provide the required incentives, including provisions for the deployment of carbon-free fuels. In the inspiring thermodynamics of hydrocarbon to hydrogen conversion in a closed system using hydrogen combustion to decompose the hydrocarbon, we find a penalty of 0.56 J for each Joule available in the original hydrocarbon. Applying energy market price range of 150e500 $/t methane and molecular mass-conversion to CO 2 equivalent, results in costs ranging from 60 to more than 200$/t CO 2. They are well above current carbon tax or emission trading schemes prices. They quantify the required incentives to cleaner (C-free) production yielding prompt emission reduction in the producers' market. We show how similar penalties accrue from a broad spectrum of industrial hydrogen production processes using hydrocarbons. Among those, methane pyrolysis produces carbon-free energy from fossil fuels, with non-combustion promising applications for its carbon production

Brol: La deuxième vie des objets

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Proposal and Recommendations for a Science-Policy interface (SPi) to support MSFd implementation STAGES - Science and Technology Advancing Governance of Good Environmental Status

The year 2014 marks the mid-point between the launch of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the goal of Good Environmental Status (GES) in 2020. Although a lot of progress has been made, the current use of Europe’s seas is not sustainable. In its recent publication called ‘Marine Messages’ (EEA, 2014), the European Environment Agency recommended that “urgent action and protection of the seas and ocean should be top of the EU agenda”. In addition, the European Commission Healthy Oceans – Productive Ecosystems (HOPE) conference declaration1 urged political leaders “…to turn words into action and encourage all stakeholders, including the private sector, to take the measures necessary to deliver “Good Environmental Status” for Europe’s seas and oceans by 2020.” Scientific knowledge is at the heart of successful implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), forming a key component of the wider knowledge-base underpinning decision making. However, whilst there has been a high investment in MSFD-relevant research across Europe and at regional and national levels, there remains a significant deficit in the transfer of the knowledge generated through such research to policy makers and wider stakeholders. There is a need for more effective science-policy interfaces that foster knowledge management and stakeholder interaction to harness, communicate, synthesise and evaluate such knowledge to enhance policy decisions. Whilst many structures and initiatives either directly or indirectly support MSFD implementation through knowledge production, knowledge-use and working at the science-policy interface, the European Commission has identified the need for a strategic long-term Science-Policy Interface (SPI) to support implementation of the MSFD. This was addressed in the context of the EU STAGES project 2 (September 2012 – August 2014) which is assessing and recommending ways to improve the structural aspects of transferring knowledge from science to inform policy and decision making in support of MSFD. The aim of this paper is to present a proposal for an effective MSFD SPI with recommendations for step-wise implementation of a SPI that is fit for purpose and that can support MSFD implementation in the long-term. This takes into account stakeholder views and expectations based on an extensive consultation through online surveys, workshops and informal discussions together with assessment of best practice and input of key recommendations from across the STAGES project outputs. Cross-cutting themes for a science-policy interface to support the MSFD The proposal has been developed in the context of five cross-cutting themes that are considered crucial to strengthen the MSFD SPI into the second MSFD cycle and beyond. These include the need for SPI processes that foster bottom-up (science-driven) and top-down (policy-driven) dialogues, the need for relevant and timely interaction with wider stakeholders, and to take into account the geographical scales and cyclical nature of the MSFD implementation process. A summary of cross-cutting themes together with recommendations are presented in Table 1. Further detail is outlined in Section 3 of this report

Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

BackgroundWe previously reported that impaired type I IFN activity, due to inborn errors of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I interferon (IFN) immunity or to autoantibodies against type I IFN, account for 15-20% of cases of life-threatening COVID-19 in unvaccinated patients. Therefore, the determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 remain to be identified in similar to 80% of cases.MethodsWe report here a genome-wide rare variant burden association analysis in 3269 unvaccinated patients with life-threatening COVID-19, and 1373 unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals without pneumonia. Among the 928 patients tested for autoantibodies against type I IFN, a quarter (234) were positive and were excluded.ResultsNo gene reached genome-wide significance. Under a recessive model, the most significant gene with at-risk variants was TLR7, with an OR of 27.68 (95%CI 1.5-528.7, P=1.1x10(-4)) for biochemically loss-of-function (bLOF) variants. We replicated the enrichment in rare predicted LOF (pLOF) variants at 13 influenza susceptibility loci involved in TLR3-dependent type I IFN immunity (OR=3.70[95%CI 1.3-8.2], P=2.1x10(-4)). This enrichment was further strengthened by (1) adding the recently reported TYK2 and TLR7 COVID-19 loci, particularly under a recessive model (OR=19.65[95%CI 2.1-2635.4], P=3.4x10(-3)), and (2) considering as pLOF branchpoint variants with potentially strong impacts on splicing among the 15 loci (OR=4.40[9%CI 2.3-8.4], P=7.7x10(-8)). Finally, the patients with pLOF/bLOF variants at these 15 loci were significantly younger (mean age [SD]=43.3 [20.3] years) than the other patients (56.0 [17.3] years; P=1.68x10(-5)).ConclusionsRare variants of TLR3- and TLR7-dependent type I IFN immunity genes can underlie life-threatening COVID-19, particularly with recessive inheritance, in patients under 60 years old

Correction: Rare predicted loss-of-function variants of type I IFN immunity genes are associated with life-threatening COVID-19

International audienc

The risk of COVID-19 death is much greater and age dependent with type I IFN autoantibodies

International audienceSignificance There is growing evidence that preexisting autoantibodies neutralizing type I interferons (IFNs) are strong determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia. It is important to estimate their quantitative impact on COVID-19 mortality upon SARS-CoV-2 infection, by age and sex, as both the prevalence of these autoantibodies and the risk of COVID-19 death increase with age and are higher in men. Using an unvaccinated sample of 1,261 deceased patients and 34,159 individuals from the general population, we found that autoantibodies against type I IFNs strongly increased the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate at all ages, in both men and women. Autoantibodies against type I IFNs are strong and common predictors of life-threatening COVID-19. Testing for these autoantibodies should be considered in the general population

The risk of COVID-19 death is much greater and age dependent with type I IFN autoantibodies

International audienceSignificance There is growing evidence that preexisting autoantibodies neutralizing type I interferons (IFNs) are strong determinants of life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia. It is important to estimate their quantitative impact on COVID-19 mortality upon SARS-CoV-2 infection, by age and sex, as both the prevalence of these autoantibodies and the risk of COVID-19 death increase with age and are higher in men. Using an unvaccinated sample of 1,261 deceased patients and 34,159 individuals from the general population, we found that autoantibodies against type I IFNs strongly increased the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate at all ages, in both men and women. Autoantibodies against type I IFNs are strong and common predictors of life-threatening COVID-19. Testing for these autoantibodies should be considered in the general population