Market Efficiency and the NHL totals betting market: Is there an under bias?

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to be utilized by academic researchers to provide insights into theories relating to more complex speculative markets. Previous investigations have focused on testing the efficient markets hypotheses and behavioral biases of the participants. This paper investigates the market efficiency of the National Hockey League (NHL) goal totals over/under betting market. The market is found to be inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns.market efficiency, under bias, National Hockey League, sports betting markets, goal totals

The value of plantation forests for plant, invertebrate and bird diversity and the potential for cross-taxon surrogacy

As the area of plantation forest expands worldwide and natural, unmanaged forests decline there is much interest in the potential for planted forests to provide habitat for biodiversity. In regions where little semi-natural woodland remains, the biodiversity supported by forest plantations, typically non-native conifers, may be particularly important. Few studies provide detailed comparisons between the species diversity of native woodlands which are being depleted and non-native plantation forests, which are now expanding, based on data collected from multiple taxa in the same study sites. Here we compare the species diversity and community composition of plants, invertebrates and birds in Sitka spruce- (Picea sitchensis-) dominated and Norway spruce- (Picea abies-) dominated plantations, which have expanded significantly in recent decades in the study area in Ireland, with that of oak- and ash-dominated semi-natural woodlands in the same area. The results show that species richness in spruce plantations can be as high as semi-natural woodlands, but that the two forest types support different assemblages of species. In areas where non-native conifer plantations are the principle forest type, their role in the provision of habitat for biodiversity conservation should not be overlooked. Appropriate management should target the introduction of semi-natural woodland characteristics, and on the extension of existing semi-natural woodlands to maintain and enhance forest species diversity. Our data show that although some relatively easily surveyed groups, such as vascular plants and birds, were congruent with many of the other taxa when looking across all study sites, the similarities in response were not strong enough to warrant use of these taxa as surrogates of the others. In order to capture a wide range of biotic variation, assessments of forest biodiversity should either encompass several taxonomic groups, or rely on the use of indicators of diversity that are not species based

Market efficiency and profitable wagering in the National Hockey League: Can bettors score on longshots?

There is evidence that stock market investors overreact to stocks that have been identified as winners and losers. This article examines whether contrarian strategies of selling (betting against) winners and buying (betting on) losers are successful in the gambling market for professional football. Contrary to the stock market, National Football League betting is found to be highly efficient. Because risk is constant for all football wagers, results support the argument that abnormal returns paid to contrarian stock market investors may be attributed to the higher risk incurred

Testing profitability in the NBA season wins total betting market

The favorite-longshot bias, the tendency of bettors to underbet favorites and overbet longshots (underdogs), has received considerable attention in the economics and finance literature. Although the bias is prevalent in racetrack betting, with pari-mutuel odds, researchers have detected a reverse bias in two fixed-odds betting markets in the United States. A weak bias was documented for Major League Baseball for 22 seasons. It was also found to be present in the National Hockey League betting market and was of sufficient strength to allow for profitable wagering opportunities. This article analyzes 10 additional seasons of hockey wagering. The bias is sustained for the first three seasons but disappears in the last seven seasons as the market converges to efficiency. This contrasts with the baseball betting market, where the bias persists

The reverse favorite--longshot bias in the National Hockey League: Do bettors still score on longshots?

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to be utilized by academic researchers to provide insights into theories relating to more complex speculative markets. Previous investigations have focused on testing the efficient markets hypotheses and behavioral biases of the participants. This paper investigates the market efficiency of the National Hockey League (NHL) goal totals over/under betting market. The market is found to be inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns

The reverse favourite-longshot bias and market efficiency in major league baseball: An update

This paper compares the accuracy of commonly used tests of market efficiency and provides a recommendation for future research. Interest in sports betting markets as an opportunity to test the efficient market hypothesis remains strong. The most popular form of wagering is against the spread, where the 11 for 10 rule offers bettors the opportunity to wager $1.10 for a chance to win$1. This is the dominant betting methods for sides and totals wagers in football and basketball betting. This paper compares the accuracy of three test statistics commonly employed to approximate the binomial distribution in examinations of market efficiency. While the standard normal and likelihood ratio statistics are nearly identical in terms of accuracy, the standard normal test, corrected for continuity, does offer considerable improvement in many situations. However, given the easy accessibility of computing power, the researchers recommend that future researchers calculate the exact binomial probabilities

The National Football League season wins total betting market: The impact of heuristics on behavior

This article presents strategies for creating an active learning environment in a principles of accounting course. These strategies, which promote independent and lifelong learning, include the use of interactive lecture materials, collaborative in-class exercises, and self-directed out-of-class assignments. The strategies presented should not only assist instructors in teaching a more active and effective introductory accounting course, but also offer the benefits of stimulating and increasing student interest in accounting as a major. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT

Market efficiency and the NHL totals betting market: Is there an under bias?

Racetrack and sports betting markets have been researched extensively with respect to the question of market efficiency. In contrast to the consistently observed favouritelongshot bias found in racetrack betting markets, it has been shown that gamblers in the market for Major League Baseball games reveal the opposite behaviour. This paper updates the previous study with ten years of additional data for the 199099 seasons. The strength of the reverse favouritelongshot bias is virtually identical to the original paper. The result suggests that, contrary to most reported inefficiencies in gambling markets, this bias appears to be permanent