An adaptive Metropolis-Hastings scheme: sampling and optimization

We propose an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm in which sampled data are used to update the proposal distribution. We use the samples found by the algorithm at a particular step to form the information-theoretically optimal mean-field approximation to the target distribution, and update the proposal distribution to be that approximatio. We employ our algorithm to sample the energy distribution for several spin-glasses and we demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm to the conventional MH algorithm in sampling and in annealing optimization.Comment: To appear in Europhysics Letter

Collective Intelligence for Control of Distributed Dynamical Systems

We consider the El Farol bar problem, also known as the minority game (W. B. Arthur, ``The American Economic Review'', 84(2): 406--411 (1994), D. Challet and Y.C. Zhang, ``Physica A'', 256:514 (1998)). We view it as an instance of the general problem of how to configure the nodal elements of a distributed dynamical system so that they do not ``work at cross purposes'', in that their collective dynamics avoids frustration and thereby achieves a provided global goal. We summarize a mathematical theory for such configuration applicable when (as in the bar problem) the global goal can be expressed as minimizing a global energy function and the nodes can be expressed as minimizers of local free energy functions. We show that a system designed with that theory performs nearly optimally for the bar problem.Comment: 8 page

Stochastic Mathematical Systems

We introduce a framework that can be used to model both mathematics and human reasoning about mathematics. This framework involves {stochastic mathematical systems} (SMSs), which are stochastic processes that generate pairs of questions and associated answers (with no explicit referents). We use the SMS framework to define normative conditions for mathematical reasoning, by defining a ``calibration'' relation between a pair of SMSs. The first SMS is the human reasoner, and the second is an ``oracle'' SMS that can be interpreted as deciding whether the question-answer pairs of the reasoner SMS are valid. To ground thinking, we understand the answers to questions given by this oracle to be the answers that would be given by an SMS representing the entire mathematical community in the infinite long run of the process of asking and answering questions. We then introduce a slight extension of SMSs to allow us to model both the physical universe and human reasoning about the physical universe. We then define a slightly different calibration relation appropriate for the case of scientific reasoning. In this case the first SMS represents a human scientist predicting the outcome of future experiments, while the second SMS represents the physical universe in which the scientist is embedded, with the question-answer pairs of that SMS being specifications of the experiments that will occur and the outcome of those experiments, respectively. Next we derive conditions justifying two important patterns of inference in both mathematical and scientific reasoning: i) the practice of increasing one's degree of belief in a claim as one observes increasingly many lines of evidence for that claim, and ii) abduction, the practice of inferring a claim's probability of being correct from its explanatory power with respect to some other claim that is already taken to hold for independent reasons.Comment: 43 pages of text, 6 pages of references, 11 pages of appendice

Analytic Continuation for Asymptotically AdS 3D Gravity

We have previously proposed that asymptotically AdS 3D wormholes and black holes can be analytically continued to the Euclidean signature. The analytic continuation procedure was described for non-rotating spacetimes, for which a plane t=0 of time symmetry exists. The resulting Euclidean manifolds turned out to be handlebodies whose boundary is the Schottky double of the geometry of the t=0 plane. In the present paper we generalize this analytic continuation map to the case of rotating wormholes. The Euclidean manifolds we obtain are quotients of the hyperbolic space by a certain quasi-Fuchsian group. The group is the Fenchel-Nielsen deformation of the group of the non-rotating spacetime. The angular velocity of an asymptotic region is shown to be related to the Fenchel-Nielsen twist. This solves the problem of classification of rotating black holes and wormholes in 2+1 dimensions: the spacetimes are parametrized by the moduli of the boundary of the corresponding Euclidean spaces. We also comment on the thermodynamics of the wormhole spacetimes.Comment: 28 pages, 14 figure

Seeing what you want to see: priors for one's own actions represent exaggerated expectations of success.

People perceive the consequences of their own actions differently to how they perceive other sensory events. A large body of psychology research has shown that people also consistently overrate their own performance relative to others, yet little is known about how these "illusions of superiority" are normally maintained. Here we examined the visual perception of the sensory consequences of self-generated and observed goal-directed actions. Across a series of visuomotor tasks, we found that the perception of the sensory consequences of one's own actions is more biased toward success relative to the perception of observed actions. Using Bayesian models, we show that this bias could be explained by priors that represent exaggerated predictions of success. The degree of exaggeration of priors was unaffected by learning, but was correlated with individual differences in trait optimism. In contrast, when observing these actions, priors represented more accurate predictions of the actual performance. The results suggest that the brain internally represents optimistic predictions for one's own actions. Such exaggerated predictions bind the sensory consequences of our own actions with our intended goal, explaining how it is that when acting we tend to see what we want to see.We thank J. D. Carlin for his help with acquiring eye gaze data. This work was funded by the Wellcome Trust [088324], Medical Research Council and a Scholar Award from the James S. McDonnell Foundation 21st Century Science Initiative: understanding human cognition (to James B. Rowe) as well as the Human Frontier Science Program and the Royal Society Noreen Murray Professorship in Neurobiology (to Daniel M. Wolpert); Noham Wolpe was funded by a Gates Cambridge Scholarship and the Raymond and Beverley Sackler Foundation.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Frontiers via http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2014.0023

Embryonic Pattern Scaling Achieved by Oppositely Directed Morphogen Gradients

Morphogens are proteins, often produced in a localised region, whose concentrations spatially demarcate regions of differing gene expression in developing embryos. The boundaries of expression must be set accurately and in proportion to the size of the one-dimensional developing field; this cannot be accomplished by a single gradient. Here, we show how a pair of morphogens produced at opposite ends of a developing field can solve the pattern-scaling problem. In the most promising scenario, the morphogens effectively interact according to the annihilation reaction $A+B\to\emptyset$ and the switch occurs according to the absolute concentration of $A$ or $B$. In this case embryonic markers across the entire developing field scale approximately with system size; this cannot be achieved with a pair of non-interacting gradients that combinatorially regulate downstream genes. This scaling occurs in a window of developing-field sizes centred at a few times the morphogen decay length.Comment: 24 pages; 11 figures; uses iopar

A scoping review and assessment of essential elements of shared decision-making of parent-involved interventions in child and adolescent mental health

Parents play a critical role in child and adolescent mental health care and treatment. With the increasing implementation of shared decision-making (SDM) across health settings, there is a growing need to understand the decision support interventions used to promote SDM in child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS). The overall aim of this review is to identify and examine the existing decision support interventions available for parents. A broad search was conducted using the key concepts "shared decision-making", "parents" and "child and adolescent mental health". Five electronic databases were searched: PsycInfo, Embase, Medline, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. In addition to these relevant databases, we searched the Ottawa's Inventory of Decision Aids, Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario website, Google, Google Play and known CAMHS' websites. The search identified 23 interventions available for use with parents. These interventions targeted parents providing care for children with ADHD, ASD, emotional and behavioural problems including depression (EBD), self-harm or universal mental health care. Various modalities including face-to-face, digital and paper-based versions were adopted. The majority of the interventions were able to "present options" (87%) and "discuss the pros and cons" (83%) of treatment. Time, accessibility and appropriateness of the intervention emerged as factors influencing usage and implementation of interventions. Our findings suggest that SDM interventions involving parents have been implemented differently across various presenting mental health difficulties in CAMHS. This review brings awareness of existing parent-involved interventions and has implications for the development, implementation and usage of new interventions

Finding the center reliably: robust patterns of developmental gene expression

We investigate a mechanism for the robust identification of the center of a developing biological system. We assume the existence of two morphogen gradients, an activator emanating from the anterior, and a co-repressor from the posterior. The co-repressor inhibits the action of the activator in switching on target genes. We apply this system to Drosophila embryos, where we predict the existence of a hitherto undetected posterior co-repressor. Using mathematical modelling, we show that a symmetric activator-co-repressor model can quantitatively explain the precise mid-embryo expression boundary of the hunchback gene, and the scaling of this pattern with embryo size.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure