A framework for assessing the tangible and intangible impacts of emergency animal diseases

A FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE TANGIBLE AND INTANGIBLE IMPACTS OF EMERGENCY ANIMAL DISEASES Abstract In the thesis, a novel framework for addressing the tangible and intangible impacts of emergency animal diseases (EADs) is presented. Traditional economic assessment methodologies lack the capacity to measure the intangible impacts of EADs (which are by their definition ‘difficult to measure or unable to be precisely measured’). Intangible elements can have a great impact on decisions made relating to the response, control and prevention strategies that are ultimately used to address these EADs. Intangibles have value and worth, although this value is subjective and difficult to express in dollar terms. Consequently, the intangible elements are often lost in the scope of traditional economic analysis. Without the consideration of intangible impacts, the bottom-line for decision-making related to animal-health emergencies would be based only on financial measures. This does not reflect the reality of the consultative policy-making process. A novel method for measuring the intangible impacts of EADs is used in conjunction with economic analysis. The intangible measurements are used to inflate or deflate the economic costs and benefits to create a ‘value-adjusted’ outcome. Two case studies (PRRS in northern Victoria and Hendra virus in Southeast Queensland) demonstrate the operation of the framework and outcomes from an integrated economic and intangible analysis. The case studies demonstrate the use of an intangible measurement and the calculation of an integrated value measure. This integrated value measure is used to gauge a stakeholder’s response to a proposed EAD policy. In the PRRS case studies, the outcomes indicate that overall, the pork industry would be in favour of maintaining a PRRS-free status in Australia. Other stakeholder groups would be prepared to make some compromise on a ‘disease-free’ status. The reasons for this may include the continuation of positive flow-on effects from pork processing or to prevent animal welfare issues that may occur as a result of overcrowding and resource stress during an EAD response. The Hendra virus case study outcomes indicate that a subsidised vaccination campaign (in the form of vaccination clinics) would present a unanimously superior solution to preventing cases of Hendra virus in humans and horses when compared to flying-fox roost removal. Using this framework to gather stakeholder data during the consultative process of policy-making aids in the identification and recording of the perceived value of intangible costs and benefits from the stakeholder perspective. These data can be used to aid decision-making or to help facilitate capacity building through the policy-making process. The use of the framework will ensure that the resulting analysis includes the full impacts of EADs, rather than only a narrow comparison of financial costs and benefits

Young People Creating Belonging: spaces, sounds and sights

Report for ESRC-funded project exploring belonging among 'looked after' young people from across mainland and island Scotland. The project employed innovative visual and audial methods in multiple interviews with participants

Small montane cloud forest fragments are important for conserving tree diversity in the Ecuadorian Andes

Montane tropical cloud forests, with their complex topography, biodiversity, high numbers of endemic species, and rapid rates of clearing, are a top global conservation priority. However, species distributions at local and landscape scales in cloud forests are still poorly understood, in part because few regions have been surveyed. Empirical work has focused on species distributions along elevation gradients, but spatial variation among forests at the same elevation is less commonly investigated. In this study, the first to compare tree communities across multiple Andean cloud forests at similar elevations, we surveyed trees in five ridge‐top forest reserves at the upper end of the ‘mid‐elevation diversity bulge’ (1900–2250 masl) in the Intag Valley, a heavily deforested region in the Ecuadorian Andes. We found that tree communities were distinct in reserves located as close as 10 to 35 km apart, and that spatially closer forests were not more similar to one another. Although larger (1500 to 6880 ha), more intact forests contained significantly more tree species (108–120 species/0.1 ha) than smaller (30 to 780 ha) ones (56–87 species/0.1 ha), each reserve had unique combinations of more common species, and contained high proportions of species not found in the others. Results thus suggest that protecting multiple cloud forest patches within this narrow elevational band is essential to conserve landscape‐level tree diversity, and that even small forest reserves contribute significantly to biodiversity conservation. These findings can be applied to create management plans to conserve and restore cloud forests in the Andes and tropical montane cloud forests elsewhere.RESUMENLos bosques nublados tropicales montanos, con su compleja topografía, biodiversidad, alto número de especies endémicas, y altas tasas de tala de bosque son una prioridad de conservación global. Sin embrago, la distribución de especies a escala local y de paisaje en bosques nublados es aun pobremente entendida, en parte porque pocas regiones han sido muestreadas. Estudios empíricos se han enfocado en la distribución de especies a lo largo de gradientes altitudinales, pero la variación espacial entre bosques ubicados a la misma elevación ha sido comúnmente menos investigada. En este estudio, el primero en comparar comunidades de árboles a lo largo de múltiples bosques nublados Andinos en elevaciones similares, muestreamos árboles en cinco reservas de bosque de cresta de montaña en el límite superior del pico de diversidad de elevaciones intermedias (‘mid‐elevation diversity bulge’) (1900–2250 m.s.n.m.) en el Valle de Intag, una región altamente deforestada en los Andes ecuatorianos. Encontramos que las comunidades de árboles fueron distintas en reservas tan cercanas como de 10 a 35 km de distancia entre sí, y que bosques espacialmente más cercanos no fueron más similares entre ellos. Aunque bosques extensos más intactos contuvieron significativamente más especies de árboles (108–120 especies/0.1 ha) que los de menor tamaño (56–87 especies/0.1 ha), cada reserva tuvo una combinación única de especies comunes, y una alta proporción de especies no encontradas en las otras reservas. Los resultados sugieren que proteger múltiples parches de bosque nublado dentro de este estrecho rango altitudinal es esencial para conservar la diversidad de árboles a escala de paisaje, y que aun pequeñas reservas de bosque contribuyen significativamente a la conservación de la biodiversidad. Estos resultados se pueden aplicar para la creación de planes de manejo para conservación y restauración del bosque nublado en los Andes y bosques tropicales montanos en otros sitios.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144672/1/btp12542_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144672/2/btp12542.pd

High resolution comparative palynostratigraphy and palaeoecology of Oligocene sequences in the terrestrial basins of the Western British Isles and the marine North Sea basin

Oligocene sediments from six terrestrial basins in western Britain and two boreholes from the North Sea Basin were studied. These Oligocene sequences are dominated by claystones with silts, sands, conglomerates and lignites. From these sediments 116 samples were processes for a quantitative palynological study. Taxa encountered included 142 genera and 264 species. Using palynological associations and the ranges o f taxa the two North Sea Basin sections could be correlated with the data from the western British Isles basins. A fall in sea level at the Rupelian/Chattian boundary was evident from the data enabling absolute ages to be defined for the correlative events between the marine sequences. Upto now the ages o f the terrestrial Oligocene sediments in western Britain have been poorly constrained. It was found that the pollen and spore events o f the marine sequences could be seen in the data from the western British Isles allowing, for the first time, a high resolution comparative palynostratigraphy for the Oligocene sequences o f North and West Britain. The distribution o f the taxa encountered and statistical tests on the data indicate a fall in sea level at the Rupelian/Chattian boundary and three local transgressive events (two in the Upper Rupelian and one in the Upper Chattain). The Rupelian palaeoecology suggests mixed mesophytic forests surrounding floodplain areas with floodplain swamp development. This changes into the Chattian with secondary dryland and primary forests taking over from the mixed mesophytic forests. The fall in sea level and associated fall in base level generates instability leading to fluctuating floodplain swamp environments. A similar situation is envisaged for eastern England where the dominance o f mixed mesophytic forests and coastal littoral swamp environments changes to more open, drier forests and unstable coastal swamps

Eye preferences in capuchin monkeys (Sapajus apella)

This study explored whether capuchin monkey eye preferences differ systematically in response to stimuli of positive and negative valence. The ‘valence hypothesis’ proposes that the right hemisphere is more dominant for negative emotional processing and the left hemisphere is more dominant for positive emotional processing. Visual information from each eye is thought to be transferred faster to and primarily processed by the contralateral cerebral hemisphere. Therefore, it was predicted capuchin monkeys would show greater left eye use for looking at negative stimuli and greater right eye use for looking at positive stimuli. Eleven captive capuchin monkeys were presented with four images of different emotional valence (an egg and capuchin monkey raised eyebrow face were categorised as positive, and a harpy eagle face and capuchin monkey threat face were categorised as negative) and social relevance (consisting of capuchin monkey faces or not), and eye preferences for viewing the stimuli through a monocular viewing hole were recorded. While strong preferences for using either the left or right eye were found for most individuals, there was no consensus at the population level. Furthermore, the direction of looking, number of looks and duration of looks did not differ significantly with the emotional valence of the stimuli. These results are inconsistent with the main hypotheses about the relationship between eye preferences and processing of emotional stimuli. However, the monkeys did show significantly more arousal behaviours (vocalisation, door-touching, self-scratching and hand-rubbing) when viewing the negatively valenced stimuli than the positively valenced stimuli, indicating that the stimuli were emotionally salient. These findings do not provide evidence for a relationship between eye preferences and functional hemispheric specialisations, as often proposed in humans. Additional comparative studies are required to better understand the phylogeny of lateral biases, particularly in relation to emotional valence

Youth Justice Geographies and Convicted Young People's Mobilities

Currently, there is a gap in knowledge about the context of convicted young people’s youth justice journey making and its treatment. Youth justice orders can break down as a result of absence, with sentence escalation and even custody becoming possible, if problems remain unresolved. Youth justice attendance can be as low as fifty per cent, with over twenty per cent of orders breaking down in some locations. Yet a lack of statistical detail makes it impossible to establish the extent of the problem. Low income households are over-represented in the youth justice population, and such groups can have limited access to transport while experiencing difficulties accessing essential local services. Subsequently, convicted young people’s youth justice journey making and treatment needs to be better understood in order to ensure responses remain proportionate, as per existing agreements. This thesis borrows ideas from the new mobilities paradigm, transposing them into a youth justice context, while remembering well cemented connections with social policy. Two mixed methods case studies will examine convicted young people’s youth justice journey making and treatment in locations where neighbourhood deprivation and youth justice order breakdown rates were at some of the highest in the country. Accessible visual research tools facilitated communication with young people and practitioners about youth justice journey making and absence management, to develop more fluid understandings of convicted young people’s youth justice journey making, and its treatment. The malleability and interconnectedness of journey making, attendance management and service delivery allows this research to make recommendations for national policy, local youth justice systems and individual practice. Importantly, the (re)production of convicted young people’s social inequalities as an unintended consequence of youth justice treatment, suggests the need for mobilities to have an elevated status in the delivery of social policies through youth justice services

Forest ecosystem-service transitions: the ecological dimensions of the forest transition

New forests are expanding around the world. In many regions, regrowth rates are surpassing deforestation rates, resulting in "forest transitions," or net gains in forest cover. Typically measured only in terms of aggregate "forest cover" change, these new forests are ecologically distinct from each other and from those originally cleared. We ask, what are the ecological attributes, goods, and services we might expect from different pathways of forest recovery? To address this question, we proposed a typology of forest transitions that reflects both their social drivers and ecological outcomes: tree plantation, spontaneous regeneration, and agroforestry transitions. Using case studies, we illustrate how the ecological outcomes of each transition type differ and change over time. We mapped the global distribution of forest-transition types to identify global epicenters of each, and found that spontaneous transitions are most common globally, especially in Latin America; agroforestry transitions predominate in Europe and Central America; and plantation transitions occur in parts of Europe and Asia. We proposed a conceptual framework to understand and compare the ecological services arising from different types of forest transitions over time: forest ecosystem-service transition curves. This framework illustrates that carbon sequestration tends to be comparatively lower in agroforestry transitions, and biodiversity recovery is lower in industrial plantations. Spontaneously regenerating forests tend to have relatively high biodiversity and biomass but provide fewer provisioning and economically valuable services. This framework captures the dynamism that we observe in forest transitions, thus illustrating that different social drivers produce different types of ecosystem-service transitions, and that as secondary forests grow, these services will change over time at rates that differ among transition types. Ultimately, this framework can guide future research, describe actual and potential changes in ecosystem services associated with different types of transitions, and promote management plans that incorporate forest cover changes with the services and benefits they provide

Exploring the role of pain as an early predictor of category 2 pressure ulcers: a prospective cohort study

Objective To explore pressure area related pain as a predictor of category ≥2 pressure ulcer (PU) development. Design Multicentre prospective cohort study. Setting UK hospital and community settings. Participants inclusion Consenting acutely ill patients aged ≥18 years, defined as high risk (Braden bedfast/chairfast AND completely immobile/very limited mobility; pressure area related pain or; category 1 PU). Exclusion Patients too unwell, unable to report pain, 2 or more category ≥2 PUs. Follow-up Twice weekly for 30 days. Primary and secondary outcome measures Development and time to development of one or more category ≥2 PUs. Results Of 3819 screened, 1266 were eligible, 634 patients were recruited, 32 lost to follow-up, providing a 602 analysis population. 152 (25.2%) developed one or more category ≥2 PUs. 464 (77.1%) patients reported pressure area related pain on a healthy, altered or category 1 skin site of whom 130 (28.0%) developed a category ≥2 PU compared with 22 (15.9%) of those without pain. Full stepwise variable selection was used throughout the analyses. (1) Multivariable logistic regression model to assess 9 a priori factors: presence of category 1 PU (OR=3.25, 95% CI (2.17 to 4.86), p<0.0001), alterations to intact skin (OR=1.98, 95% CI (1.30 to 3.00), p=0.0014), pressure area related pain (OR=1.56, 95% CI (0.93 to 2.63), p=0.0931). (2) Multivariable logistic regression model to account for overdispersion: presence of category 1 PU (OR=3.20, 95% CI (2.11 to 4.85), p<0.0001), alterations to intact skin (OR=1.90, 95% CI (1.24 to 2.91), p=0.0032), pressure area related pain (OR=1.85, 95% CI (1.07 to 3.20), p=0.0271), pre-existing category 2 PU (OR=2.09, 95% CI (1.35 to 3.23), p=0.0009), presence of chronic wound (OR=1.66, 95% CI (1.06 to 2.62), p=0.0277), Braden activity (p=0.0476). (3) Accelerated failure time model: presence of category 1 PU (AF=2.32, 95% CI (1.73 to 3.12), p<0.0001), pressure area related pain (AF=2.28, 95% CI (1.59 to 3.27), p<0.0001). (4) 2-level random-intercept logistic regression model: skin status which comprised 2 levels (versus healthy skin); alterations to intact skin (OR=4.65, 95% CI (3.01 to 7.18), p<0.0001), presence of category 1 PU (OR=17.30, 95% CI (11.09 to 27.00), p<0.0001) and pressure area related pain (OR=2.25, 95% CI (1.53 to 3.29), p<0.0001). Conclusions This is the first study to assess pain as a predictor of category ≥2 PU development. In all 4 models, pain emerged as a risk factor associated with an increased probability of category ≥2 PU development