ECONOMIC DISCOVERY IN FEDERALLY SUPPORTED IRRIGATION DISTRICTS: A TRIBUTE TO WILLIAM E. MARTIN AND FRIENDS

Ex post evaluation of economic projections validates our shared understanding of economic methodology and methods. The recent economic history of Central Arizona Project (CAP) agriculture reveals the predictive power of economic reasoning and its policy impotence within a political environment intent on obtaining its share of federally allocated water. The financial inability and unwillingness of large irrigation districts to pay for CAP water under existing federal rules produced an urban tax- and rate-payer controlled CAP decades earlier than planned. Yet irrigation districts remain a large residual buyer of CAP water under new pricing and allocation rules. Unfortunately, water markets remain an underutilized and distrusted tool in the water development game.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

SOCIAL CAPITAL, TRUST, AND THE AGRIBUSINESS OF ECONOMICS

Economists, including agricultural economists, have a long history of recognizing the importance of the behavioral foundations in decision making while ignoring these observable human dimensions in their economic models. The economics of social capital and trust, two important human characteristics influencing decisions, have captured the attention of economists in recent years. Recent empirical work demonstrates that social capital and trust considerations are prevalent and economically significant, especially in business. Trust alters the terms of trade, generates decision flexibility, reduces transaction costs, and creates additional time resources for management.Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

Onboard sampling and the rockfish and lingcod commerical passenger fishing vessel industry in Northern and Central California, January through December 1994

The Central California Marine Sport Fish Project has been collecting angler catch data on board Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels (CPFVs) fishing for rockfish or lingcod since 1987. The program depends on the voluntary cooperation of CPFV owners and operators. This fourth report in a series presents data collected in 1994, refers to historical data from 1987 to 1993, and documents trends in species composition, angler effort, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and, for selected species, mean length and length frequency. Angler catches on board central and northern California CPFVs were sampled from 14 ports, ranging from Crescent City in the north to Port San Luis (Avila Beach) in the south. Technicians observed a total of 2053 anglers fishing on 237 CPFV trips. These observed anglers caught 24,731 fish of which samplers determined 22,615 were kept. Over 63% of these fish were caught at Monterey or Morro Bay area ports. Only 18 of the 53 species each comprised at least one percent of the catch. The top ten species in order of abundance were blue, yellowtail, rosy, chilipepper, canary, and black rockfishes, lingcod, and widow, starry and greenspotted rockfishes. Blue and yellowtail rockfishes together comprised approximately 44% of the observed catch. Overall, rockfishes represented 32 species or 60% of the 53 identified species. In general, 1994 data showed continued evidence of sustainability of the CPFV rockfish fishery with a few exceptions for some species in each port area sampled. We identified areas of concern for three nearshore species (black, blue, and brown rockfishes), three offshore species (bocaccio, chilipepper, and widow rockfish), and two wide-depth range species (canary and yelloweye rockfishes). Declining trends in CPAH in at least one port area were identified for each of these species except black and blue rockfishes, some of which may be related to natural variability in year class strength or stock movement. Mean length decreased in at least one port area for black, blue, brown, and canary rockfishes and chilipepper, although for black rockfish and chilipepper this was attributed to increased recruitment of juveniles. Positive trends identified included increased CPAH for black rockfish in the San Francisco and Monterey areas, for canary rockfish in the San Francisco area, and for brown rockfish in the Morro Bay area. Total northern and central California CPFV catch estimates, based on logbook data and adjusted by sampling data and compliance rates, indicated that port area-specific decreases have occurred since 1988 for yellowtail rockfish and lingcod (San Francisco), chilipepper (Monterey), and blue rockfish (Monterey and Morro Bay). The competing influences of the nearshore commercial hook-and-line fishery were apparent when comparing relative species composition to that of the CPFV fishery. Declines in CPAH in the CPFV fishery for some shallow water species, such as brown rockfish in the Bodega Bay area, may be related to increased commercial fishing effort. (98pp.

Onboard sampling of the rockfish and lingcod commerical passenger fishing vessel industry in northern and central California, January through December 1995

The Central California Marine Sport Fish Project has been collecting angler catch data on board Commercial Passenger Fishing Vessels (CPFVs) fishing for rockfish or lingcod since 1987. The program depends on the voluntary cooperation of CPFV owners and operators. This fifth report in a series presents data collected in 1995, refers to historical data from 1987 to 1994, and documents trends in species composition, angler effort, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and, for selected species, mean length, and length frequency. Angler catches on board central and northern California CPFVs were sampled from 12 ports, ranging from Fort Bragg in the north to Port San Luis (Avila Beach) in the south. Technicians observed a total of 1829 anglers fishing on 218 CPFV trips. These observed anglers caught 26,197 fish of which samplers determined 22,888 were kept. Over 62% of these fish were caught at Monterey or Morro Bay area ports. Only 18 of 55 species comprised at least one percent of the catch. The top ten species in order of abundance were yellowtail, blue, olive, and rosy rockfishes, lingcod, and canary, widow, gopher, starry, and vermilion rockfishes. Blue and yellowtail rockfishes together comprised approximately 47% of the observed catch. Overall, rockfishes represented 35 species or 64% of the 55 identified species. By number, rockfishes comprised 91.9 % of the observed catch. All CPUE and length data collected since 1987 were partitioned into six location groups for each port area, based on a combination of location, bottom depth, and distance from the nearest port. This allowed examination of indicator trends without potential biases due to non-random trip selection or ontogenetic changes in depth distribution for certain rockfishes. Results indicate that the two primary species in the northern and central California CPFV fishery, blue and yellowtail rockfishes (accounting for 47% of all observed fish in 1995), are in reasonably good condition with no steady declines in either average catch per angler hour or mean length during the last 8 years. The primary species of concern are mainly shallow-water species impacted by a recently expanded commercial hook-and-line fishery or deep-water species (chilipepper and bocaccio) which are fished intensively by the commercial industry and have experienced recent statewide stock declines. Estimated total rockfish catch, adjusted by logbook compliance rates and on board sampling data, has declined significantly in all port areas since 1992. This is largely attributable to increased recreational fishing effort for salmon as well as coast-wide stock declines in several important commercially fished species. (112pp.

TRUSTWORTHINESS AS AN ECONOMIC ASSET

The evaluation of trust in economic decision making remains on the periphery of mainstream economic analysis and teaching. Yet business managers use trustworthiness in daily exchanges to create competitive advantages for their firms. An exploratory empirical test of Barney and HansenÂ’s three levels of trust (weak, semistrong, and strong) and Lewicki and BunkerÂ’s portfolio of governance mechanisms revealed that strong-form trust exists in day-to-day business relationships along with other governance mechanisms. Identity-based transactions were more prevalent than were weak trust market exchanges in important economic transactions.Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade,

FINANCIAL RISK IN COTTON PRODUCTION

Risk analysis continues to emphasize price and yield variability as the principal components of the decision-maker's risk environment. This research demonstrates the relative importance of financial risk for a representative cotton farm in Arizona. For highly leveraged operations, financial risk may account for 70 percent of the total risk faced by the producer. Implications for future risk analysis are discussed in light of these findings.Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

MARKET DEMANDS FOR BAGGED, REFRIGERATED SALADS

Sales of newly introduced bagged, refrigerated salads grew at over 50% annually, during 1994-95. Consumption of bagged salads displayed marked seasonality despite year-round availability and uniform quality at more stable prices than head lettuce. Using scanner data from 44 areas, a single-equation demand model incorporating the effects of weather on seasonal consumption is estimated. Statistical tests of aggregation indicate that weather-induced seasonality varies significantly across areas, as do own- and cross- price elasticities. Econometric results suggest more seasonality in eating by people living in more northern latitudes, a pattern also observed by psychiatrists studying eating disorders.Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

TIME INTEGRATION: AGRIBUSINESS STRUCTURE FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Agribusiness,

AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE INTERVAL APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING RISK PREFERENCES

Previous attempts to measure agricultural decision makers' risk preferences have obtained values of the Arrow-Pratt coefficient in the range of approximately -.0002 to .0012. The recently developed interval approach for elicitation of risk preferences was used to estimate risk attitudes for Minnesota swine producers. Constant and decreasing absolute risk aversion were predominant among the sample. Seventy-eight percent of the respondents were in the Arrow-Pratt interval of -.0002 to .0003. A discriminant analysis using producer attributes and three estimated risk intervals concluded that 50 percent of the respondents could be classified in the correct risk interval.Risk and Uncertainty,

RISK RESEARCH AND PUBLIC OUTREACH: A TALE OF TWO CULTURES?

Agricultural economists have been challenged in recent years, by voices inside and outside the profession, to evaluate the integrity of the operational bridge between research and extension activities in the land grant system. This essay investigates links between the work of risk researchers and outreach programs. Survey results indicate that (a) a significant number of risk researchers are involved in extension activities; (b) extension economists are less frequently involved in risk research than their colleagues with no extension appointment; (c) full-time extension economists use less sophisticated risk tools in their outreach efforts than used in their research; and (d) all respondents, regardless of appointment, see a need for more applied risk analysis. Major challenges include a lack of financial support to close the data gap and to conduct relevant applied analysis present major communication challenges.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,