Inside Information and Public News: R-Squared and Beyond

This paper finds that the majority of stock price movements remain unexplained after controlling for both public and private information. This suggests that economists’ inability to explain asset price movements is the result of either noise or naive asset pricing models.asset pricing; news; private information

Sources of Funds and Quality Effects in Higher Education

Economists have suggested that the quality of higher education is not independent of the sources of funds used to fund that education. This paper examines the relationship between student measures of teaching quality and institutional revenue sources. The results indicate that a greater reliance on private subsides is associated with higher measures of teacher quality. A greater reliance on public subsidies, however, leads to lower teacher quality ratings. The importance of these results for shaping public policy decisions is also discussed.higher education; educational finance

The Allocation of Public School Expenditures

While the Serrano v Priest decisions and Proposition 13 effectively rendered California school district budgets exogenous, intra-district resource allocation remains largely at the discretion of school district administrations. As a result, Serrano v Priest and Proposition 13 alleviate concerns about the potentially endogenous relationship between student body composition and inter-district resource disparity and allow us to focus on consistently estimating the effect of classroom versus non-classroom spending. We find that teaching expenditures have a positive effect on student performance while nonteaching expenditures have a negative effect. Either the reallocation of $100 from administrative to classroom spending, with no change in overall expenditures, or an$100 increase aimed directly at the classroom moves the average California high school approximately 5 percentage points higher in the state test score rankings. These results are similar across grade levels (elementary, middle and high schools) and subject areas (mathematics, reading, language, spelling, social studies, and science). Our results suggest that both current and future educational expenditures should be targeted towards the classroom.school spending; test scores

German Debt Traded in London During World War II: A British Perspective on Hitler

Two series of German bonds, issued in 1924 and 1930, traded on the London Stock Exchange throughout Hitler’s 1933-1945 regime in Germany. We isolate both structural breaks and turning points in these bond series. Major turning points follow Hitler’s reintroduction of conscription in 1935, the outbreak of war in 1939 and the D-Day invasion of June 1944. The German bonds’ sustained downtrend after 1935 suggests that bondholders recognized the negative implications of Hitler’s program. Bond prices recover during the war, however, and appear to anticipate the overthrow of Hitler and the postwar settlement of foreign bondholders’ claims.bonds, Germany, Hitler

Exit, Voice, and the Role of Corporate Directors: Evidence from Acquisition Performance

This study examines the characteristics of corporate boards for 82 companies that attempted 106 acquisitions during the 1980s. We find that poor performance is more likely to occur in firms that have recently experienced higher turnover of outside and lower turnover of inside directors. Companies with smaller boards, more reputable members, and larger equity holdings also outperform their counterparts. Our results do not suggest that more outside directors lead to improved performance but that outsiders often resign from the board instead of challenging managerial shirking. We conclude that choosing directors for whom board exit is costly will better reduce agency costs.

Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective

This paper examines the Confederate cotton bonds floated in Europe in March 1863 and traded on the London market. Over our March 27, 1863 to June 17, 1865 sample we isolate two, non-reversed, "turning points" that follow news of Confederate defeat at Gettysburg and Vicksburg in July 1863 and the fall of Atlanta in September 1864. Our analysis suggests that the turning points important to Southern interests differ from those identified for the Northern side by Willard, Guinnane and Rosen (1996). It seems that war news did not always have symmetric effects on North and South.

Fraud and Financial Markets: The 1997 Collapse of the Junior Mining Stocks

The Vancouver Composite Index fell by over 25% in less than six weeks during spring 1997 as the junior mining sector collapsed. We argue that this market collapse was triggered by the failure of Bre-X Minerals when that company’s Indonesian claims, previously believed to contain the world’s largest gold deposit, were shown to be pure fraud. Our event study, based on market returns for the Vancouver Composite Index and for a portfolio of 59 gold stocks, shows the effects of the Bre-X scandal to be both sizeable and significant. There is also some evidence that smaller exploration companies were hardest hit.Bre-X; event study; fraud; gold; mining

School Size and the Distribution of Test Scores

After forty years of school consolidation, the preponderance of the evidence, including the results presented in this paper, suggest that the race to reap returns to scale and specialization in education may have come at a high price. This paper uses newly available STAR test score data from California to explore the relationship between school size and the distribution of test scores across elementary, middle, and high schools. We find that school size has a statistically significant and economically large impact on school performance. For example, the probability that an average suburban high school is dominated by low scorers rises from 47% to 71% as the school grows from 200 to 800 students per grade.school size, test scores

Competing With the NYSE

We study the stock exchange rivalry between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Consolidated Stock Exchange (Consolidated) from 1885 to 1926 using a new database of bid-ask spreads and stock data collected from The New York Times and other primary sources. The magnitude of this important, but largely forgotten rivalry was substantial. From 1885 to 1895, the ratio of Consolidated to NYSE volume averaged 40 percent and reached as high as 60 percent. The market share of the Consolidated averaged 23 percent for approximately 40 years. The Consolidated focused on the relatively liquid securities on the NYSE as measured by bid-ask spreads and trading volume. Our results suggest that NYSE bid-ask spreads fell by more than 10 percent when the Consolidated began to trade NYSE stocks while bid-ask spreads for our quasicontrol group of stocks trading on the Boston Stock Exchange remain unchanged. The effect persisted over the entire history of the stock market rivalry until a series of scandals and investigations of the Consolidated by state regulators led to the demise of the exchange in the 1920s. The analysis suggests three conclusions: (1) the NYSE has faced significant long-run competition (2) the NYSE may be susceptible to a similar level of competition in the future and (3) that the Consolidated may have improved the efficiency of stock prices by contributing to the price discovery process.