IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE 2003 CAP REFORM AND THE NITRATE DIRECTIVE ON THE ARABLE FARMING SYSTEM IN THE MIDI-PYRÉNÉES REGION: BIO-ECONOMIC MODELING AT FIELD, FARM AND REGIONAL LEVELS

This paper analyses the impact of the 2003 CAP reform (the so-called Fischler Reform) and its interaction with the Nitrate Directive on the sustainability of selected arable farming systems in a French region (Midi-Pyrénées). The Nitrate Directive is one of the oldest EU environmental programs designed to reduce water pollution by nitrate from agricultural sources, through a set of measures, defined at regional level, and mandatory for farmers of vulnerable zones. This impact analysis is performed through a bio-economic modelling framework coupling the crop model CropSyst and the farm-based model FSSIM developed, within the EU FP6 SEAMLESS project (Van Ittersum et al., 2008). The 2003 CAP reform was compared first to the continuation of Agenda 2000 Regulations and then to a policy scenario combining the CAP reform with the application of the Nitrate Directive. Compared to the continuation of Agenda 2000 Regulations, the implementation of the 2003 CAP reform leads to (i) a decrease of durum wheat area, as the supplement for durum wheat in traditional production zones was reduced and integrated in the single payment scheme, (ii) a slight increase in the land used for irrigated crops, especially for maize grain, considering that 25% of the payments for these crops remain coupled and (iii) an amelioration of farm income due to a better crop allocation. Regarding the environmental results, the 2003 CAP reform induces a decrease of nitrate leaching mostly because of the drop in the level of durum wheat growing under cereal rotations in profit of soft wheat-sunflower rotation which generates less pollution levels. The impact analysis of the policy scenario shows that the potential 3% premium cut is not enough to compel farmers to adopt the Nitrate Directive and to substitute entirely the current activities by the alternative ones based on better N management. The farm income is marginally affected in spite of this premium cut thanks to the implementation of certain alternative activities which are more competitive. The impact on nitrate leaching is not always positive and swings between -6% to +5% depending on farm types. This implies that the partial adoption of better N management is not sufficient to ensure a reduction of leached nitrate. A sensitivity analysis shows that 17% of premium cut is required to enforce all arable farmers in the region to implement this directive.Integrated assessment, Agricultural Policy, Nitrate Directive, Bioeconomic modelling, multi-scale analysis., Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q18, Q52, Q58,

Evaluation participative de scénarios (quelles perspectives pour les systèmes agricoles camarguais ?)

Les systèmes agricoles sont en constante évolution sous les effets conjugués d'innovations techniques et organisationnelles et de changements du contexte socio-économique. A l'échelle d'un territoire, des acteurs locaux peuvent encourager et accompagner des changements de ce type s'ils ont une vision claire de leurs impacts potentiels. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'élaborer et d'appliquer une démarche permettant d'assister agriculteurs et autres acteurs locaux d'un territoire dans la construction et l'évaluation de scénarios d'évolutions des systèmes agricoles. Une démarche basée sur des approches permettant une analyse prospective, multicritères, multi-échelles et participative d'évaluation des systèmes agricoles a été développée. Elle a été mise en œuvre en Camargue (sud-est de la France), avec des exploitants céréaliers et des acteurs de la production agricole et de la gestion du territoire.Des scénarios portant sur la réforme de la politique agricole commune (PAC) en 2012-2014, ainsi que sur des objectifs nationaux de réduction de la consommation de pesticides et de développement de l'agriculture biologique ont été développés. Ces perspectives d'évolution des systèmes agricoles camarguais ont été évaluées, via la formalisation de nombreuses données et connaissances. Deux outils de modélisation ont été utilisés : un modèle multi-agent a permis la mise en place de séances de simulation interactives avec des agriculteurs, et un modèle bioéconomique a été développé et utilisé avec des acteurs locaux tels que le syndicat des riziculteurs et le parc naturel régional.Les scénarios portant sur la réforme de la PAC ont confirmé la dépendance des exploitations rizicoles aux subventions. Des agriculteurs ont testé différentes stratégies d'adaptation de leurs exploitations à la suppression de l'aide couplée à la production rizicole. Ces stratégies, souvent basées sur la diversification des activités ou sur la conversion à l'agriculture biologique, ne permettaient pas de compenser les pertes économiques liées à la disparition de l'aide couplée. A l'échelle du territoire, ces stratégies réduiraient fortement la surface cultivée en riz, avec des impacts importants sur d'autres activités en lien avec la production agricole. Cependant ces stratégies vont dans le sens des objectifs gouvernementaux de réduction des impacts de l'agriculture sur l'environnement. Des scénarios portant spécifiquement sur ces objectifs ont permis d'identifier des marges de manœuvre importantes au niveau des exploitations céréalières camarguaises.Cette thèse propose un cadre pour la mise en œuvre de démarches d'évaluation des systèmes agricoles dans un territoire, qui associe les agriculteurs et les acteurs locaux à différentes étapes, depuis leur engagement pour le choix des scénarios, l'acquisition et l'analyse des données, la construction des outils de simulation et l'évaluation de scénarios. La combinaison de différents outils de modélisation pour la réalisation de réflexions collectives, pourrait contribuer à la mise en place d'actions pour un développement durable de l'agricultureAgricultural systems are constantly evolving driven by technical and organizational innovations and changes in their socio-economical context. At regional scale local stakeholders can encourage and accompany foreseen changes if they can have clear visions of their potential impacts. The objective of the PhD thesis was to develop and test a framework to assist farmers and local stakeholders of a region in the building and assessment of scenarios related to agricultural systems. This framework is based on different modeling approaches for a participative, integrated, multi-scale and prospective assessment of agricultural systems. It was implemented in the Camargue region, South-East of France, with cereal farmers and local stakeholders involved in agricultural production and territorial management.Scenarios assessed were related to the reform of the common agricultural policy (CAP) of the European Union in 2012-2014, and to national objectives of reduction in pesticide use and extension of organic farming (OF). Several data and expert knowledge have been formalized and used in these simulations of scenarios. Two modeling tools have been used for scenario assessment with stakeholders: an agent-based model allowed interactive simulation sessions with farmers, and a bio-economic model was co-developed and used with local stakeholders such as the French Union of Rice Producer and Industry and the Regional Natural Park, both important stakeholders influencing local agricultural systems. Assessing scenarios related to the CAP reform showed the strong dependency of rice farms to EU subsidies. Farmers involved in the sessions tested several adaptation strategies for their farms in response to the disappearance of the rice coupled payment. These strategies often implied a diversification of production and/or the conversion to OF, but they did not allowed to compensate the economic loss due to the suppression of the rice coupled payment. At the regional level, these strategies would lead to an important decrease on the area cultivated with rice, and therefore have an impact on other related activities in the region. Diversification of production is also a key strategy in scenarios related to governmental objectives of reducing pesticide use and conversion to OF. Therefore, in Camargue, there is room for maneuver for conciliating environmental and economic objectives related to agricultural production.This thesis proposed and applied a framework for participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems. This framework associates closely farmers and other stakeholders in all phases of scenario assessment (scenario definition, data gathering and analysis, the building and use of models). The way different modeling tools are used in this framework could contribute for collective assessment of future farming systems and support collective actions for sustainable agricultural development.MONTPELLIER-SupAgro La Gaillarde (341722306) / SudocSudocFranceF

HOW TO EVALUATE THE IMPACTS OF THE EXTENSION OF INNOVATIVE FARMING SYSTEMS AT THE REGIONAL SCALE? SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF ORGANIC AGRICULTURE IN THE CAMARGUE

N° ISBN - 978-2-7380-1284-5International audienceThe Camargue, South of France, is an agricultural region highly multifunctional and with strong issues linking the environment and the society. Evaluating scenarios of alternative agricultural systems extension in this region imply to use tools that allow Prospective, Integrated, Multiscale and Participatory Assessment of Agricultural Systems (PIMPAAS). In this paper, we reviewed the use of three approaches (BEM, ABM and LUCC) for PIMPAAS. After a presentation of the three approaches, we analyzed their advantages and drawbacks, and possible complementarities. As it is not possible to implement the three approaches together at one time, our aim was to make a choice for the Camargue. We found LUCC to be the least suitable approach, mainly because it does not allow participatory processes at farm scale. BEM and MAS appeared to be the most suitable tools as they allow quantitative and ex-ante studies and are able to incorporate the three sustainability domains. Their ways of up-scaling are complementary: BEM seems efficient for up-scaling from field to farm and field to region, whereas MAS allow up-scaling without aggregation from farm to region. We believe that the combination of the two approaches will enable highly participatory evaluations of alternative farming systems. Using the results of this analysis, we recommend using a combination of MAS and BEM in a global framework. We are currently implementing a framework in the Camargue to test this combination and to evaluate its suitability for prospective, multiscale, multicriteria and participatory evaluation

The major characteristics of environmental policies and agro-ecological technologies to be studied in Test case 2

Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,