Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan : An Empirical Investigation

The Taylor rule (1993) focuses only on two objectives : output and inflation. In practice, the central banks loss function (especially in developing countries) contains objectives other than these two, like the interest rate smoothing, exchange rate stabilisation, etc. In this study, the monetary policy reaction function has been estimated, including five objectives for monetary policy as well as controlling for the effect of three other factors. Whereas the results confirm the counter-cyclical response of monetary policy to the factors in the loss function, the response of interest rate to changes in the foreign exchange reserves and the government borrowing has been negative. Variance decomposition shows that most of the variation in the interest rate is explained by its own lagged values. Other variables, in explaining variation in the interest rate, can be ranked as inflation, government borrowing, exchange rate, output gap, trade deficit, and, finally, the foreign exchange reserves.Monetary Policy Objectives, Variance Decomposition, Call Money Rate

Monetary Policy Objectives in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation

The Taylor rule (1993) focuses only on two objectives: output and inflation. In practice, the central bank’s loss function (especially in developing countries) contains objectives other than these two, like the interest rate smoothing, exchange rate stabilisation, etc. In this study, the monetary policy reaction function has been estimated, including five objectives for monetary policy as well as controlling for the effect of three other factors. Whereas the results confirm the counter-cyclical response of monetary policy to the factors in the loss function, the response of interest rate to changes in the foreign exchange reserves and the government borrowing has been negative. Variance decomposition shows that most of the variation in the interest rate is explained by its own lagged values. Other variables, in explaining variation in the interest rate, can be ranked as inflation, government borrowing, exchange rate, output gap, trade deficit, and, finally, the foreign exchange reserves.Monetary Policy Objectives, Variance Decomposition, Call Money Rate

The Contemporaneous Correlation of Structural Shocks and Inflation— Output Variability in Pakistan

Monetary policy has changed in a number of ways during the last two decades . Along with the other characteristics, modern monetary policy is forward-looking, and the central banks respond contemporaneously to structural shocks that are expected to make inflation deviate from the future targets. This study aims at investigating this aspect of the monetary policy for Pakistan. Using a modified version of Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) developed by Enders and Hurn (2007), we have found a weak response of policy to supply-side shocks as the correlation coefficient between the demand and supply shocks is only 0.041. Moreover, the results show that the demand shocks have no significant contribution to output variability. On the other hand, both the demand and supply shocks, along with the foreign supply shocks, significantly contribute to inflation variability.Monetary Policy, Contemporaneous Correlation, Pakistan, Structural Shocks, Vector Autoregression

Money, Output, and Inflation: Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan has experienced inflationary episodes in the last thirty years. “Why has inflation been high in some of the periods?” is a debatable question. There are at least three possible candidate answers to this question; monetary policy actions, supply side factors and/or inflation in the rest of the world (trading partner countries). To test whether monetary policy actions are responsible for episodes of high inflation is the objective of this study. Khan and Schimmelpfennig (2006) studied the relative importance of monetary factors and supply side factors for inflation and found that monetary factors had played dominant role in inflation determination. Agha, et al. (2005), while studying transmission mechanism in Pakistan, found that inflation and output respond significantly to shocks in monetary policy instrument. However both studies depend on small data set. In this study Near-VAR approach has been used to model inflation, real GDP gap and reserve money and then impulse response functions are estimated by imposing restrictions consistent with economic theory, [Enders (2004); Sims (1986)]. Our results show the standard hump shaped response of output and inflation to monetary policy shock, reaching at peak after several quarters. Next Granger causality test is applied to test the direction of causality between inflation and reserve money and real GDP gap and reserve money. It is seen that inflation is Granger caused by reserve money but not the other way around. This result does not hold in case of reserve money and real GDP gap

Monetary Policy Transparency in Pakistan: An Independent Analysis

This paper analyses monetary policy transparency of the central bank (SBP) using the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index. The results show that the SBP scores 4.5 out of 15, which is lower than any of the central banks’ score in Eijffinger and Geraats (2006). The SBP is completely opaque on the procedural issues, whereas it is the least transparent in the policy transparency. On the political and the economic matters, the SBP is partially transparent. An area where the SBP is quite transparent, with moderate score, is operational transparency. In comparison with the other central banks, the SBP is at par with some of the central banks in political and operational transparency but ranks behind in all other respects.Monetary Policy Transparency, State Bank of Pakistan, Developing Countries

The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan

A widely agreed proposition in modern economics is that policy rules have greater advantage over discretion in improving economic performance. Simple monetary policy instrument rules are feasible options for developing countries lacking the pre-requisites for more sophisticated targeting rules. Notwithstanding the focus of modern literature on the issue, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has never declared itself to be following any type of rule. Surprisingly, this topic has remained out of research focus (among the academia and the practitioners) in Pakistan. This is the first attempt to deal with a rule-based monetary policy strategy in the case of the SBP. We have estimated the Taylor rule and simulated the economy using this rule as a monetary policy strategy. Our results indicate that the SBP has not been following the Taylor rule. In fact, the actual policy can be taken as an extreme deviation from it. On the other hand, counterfactual simulation confirms that macroeconomic performance can be improved, in terms of stability in inflation and output, when a simple Taylor rule is adopted. In this regard the parameter values (especially the inflation target) in the rule must be set according to the conditions of the economy under consideration rather than by relying on the ones suggested by the Taylor rule.Taylor Rule, Macroeconomic Performance, Counterfactual Simulation

The Taylor Rule and the Macroeconomic Performance in Pakistan

A widely agreed proposition in modern economics is that policy rules have greater advantage over discretion in improving economic performance. Simple monetary policy instrument rules are feasible options for developing countries lacking the pre-requisites for more sophisticated targeting rules. Notwithstanding the focus of modern literature on the issue, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has never declared itself to be following any type of rule. Surprisingly, this topic has remained out of research focus (among the academia and the practitioners) in Pakistan. This is the first attempt to deal with a rulebased monetary policy strategy in the case of the SBP. We have estimated the Taylor rule and simulated the economy using this rule as a monetary policy strategy. Our results indicate that the SBP has not been following the Taylor rule. In fact, the actual policy can be taken as an extreme deviation from it. On the other hand, counterfactual simulation confirms that macroeconomic performance can be improved, in terms of stability in inflation and output, when a simple Taylor rule is adopted. In this regard the parameter values (especially the inflation target) in the rule must be set according to the conditions of the economy under consideration rather than by relying on the ones suggested by the Taylor rule.Taylor Rule, Macroeconomic Performance, Counterfactual Simulation

A structural VAR (SVAR) approach to cost channel of monetary policy

The study aims at investigating, whether or not the cost channel of monetary policy is effective in Pakistan. The cost channel is one of the theoretical justifications of Price Puzzle, a phenomenon that has been observed in a number of empirical studies. Using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and data from different industries of manufacturing sector of Pakistan over the period 2001:M07-2008:M04, we find strong evidence in favor of Price Puzzle in major industries. In industries like textile, food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and fertilizers, cost channel dominates the traditional demand channel. Same behavior is observed for aggregate price level in the overall manufacturing sector. The main reason for the result is the dependency of the above mentioned industries on short-term borrowing to finance their operational liquidity.Cost Channel, Price Puzzle, Working Capital, Monetary Policy, Marginal Cost, Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR)