Thermokarst lake dynamics and its influence on biogeochemical sediment characteristics: A case study from the discontinuous permafrost zone in Interior Alaska

Under the currently projected scenarios of a warming climate, discontinuous and warm permafrost in Interior Alaska is expected to experience dramatic thinning. Thermokarst ponds and lakes give evidence for permafrost thaw and, vice versa, amplify deep thaw by talik development. During the thawing process, previously preserved organic matter is decomposed and potentially released as greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. In the course of lake development and shoreline expansion, both, younger near-surface and older organic matter from slumping shores are potentially deposited in the lake basin. Lake internal bioproductivity is complementing carbon accumulation in lacustrine deposits and provides an additional source of young carbon transformed into greenhouse gases. This study presents results of two intersecting, limnolithological transects of 5 sediment cores from Goldstream Lake, a typical small, boreal thermokarst lake in Interior Alaska. With the aim to distinguish external terrestrial and internal aquatic carbon contributions to sediments, sediment samples are analyzed for the total organic carbon/total nitrogen ratio (C/N) as well as stable carbon isotopes. Selected samples are analyzed for their grain size distribution in order to reconstruct the depositional environment and accumulation conditions. The littoral zone with actively eroding shorelines is characterized by methane bubbles produced from anaerobic microbial decomposition but near-shore sediments have surprisingly low total organic carbon contents of mean 1.5 wt%; the low C/N ratio of 8.7 indicate a dominance of lacustrine plant material. Very similar results are found for sediments in the central basin but a clear shift to a terrestrial carbon signal (C/N of 22) with total organic carbon content of almost 30 wt% is presumably indicating the trash layer of the initial lake phase. The talik sediments seem to have carbon storage as low as the lake sediments but are not as well layered. Subarctic aquatic environments like Goldstream Lake demonstrate a relatively low aquatic productivity and a high biogeochemical turn-over over short periods of time. In addition, the ongoing decomposition of organic matter in talik sediments proves to be crucial to assess the contribution of thermokarst lakes to future climate change by mobilizing Ice Age soil carbon previously frozen in permafrost

Structure from Motion (SfM) orthoimage generation for characterizing methane ebullition features in thermokarst lake ice

Thermokarst lakes are characteristic landscape features in Arctic permafrost regions and are relevant emitters of the greenhouse gas methane (Walter et al., 2006). A major pathway for methane emissions from these lakes is through bubbling (ebullition) from discrete seeps. An accurate assessment of the actual emission rates of CH4 from thawed organic-rich talik sediments under thermokarst lakes is challenging due to poor accessibility and monitoring complexities concerning the spatially and temporally variable behavior of ebullition. In early winter, when lake surfaces start to freeze, or alternatively in late winter, the days before thawing sets in, a snow free ice cover reveals trapped gas-pockets and open hotspots of methane seeps. The detection and characterization of distinct ice-trapped CH4 bubbles and bubble clusters, which depend on differing methane emission rates, is possible by field and remote sensing surveys of the lake ice cover during a short time window for image acquisition with ideal ice and snow conditions (Lindgren et al., 2015). In this work we aim to generate spatially very high resolution orthophoto mosaics using low altitude aerial imagery from multiple years to provide a set of high quality baseline imagery for characterization of ebullition features in thermokarst lake ice cover in the Fairbanks region, Interior Alaska. For our image processing, we relied on photogrammetric Structure-from-Motion (SfM) technology, which builds on image-based three-dimensional surface reconstruction algorithms. We applied this technique to large sets of overlapping aerial images using the workflow presented in Fig 1 and the software Agisoft PhotoScan Professional™. In a first step, the software analyzes input photos and detects features that are stable under variable viewpoint and lighting conditions. As a result, a descriptor for each point based on its local neighborhood is obtained and serves for detecting identical tie points across photos. Automated feature detection and matching are then performed using software-internal algorithms comparable to the Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) approach. Internal and external camera positions are estimated on basis of bundle- adjustment algorithms. For dense point cloud and mesh construction the software provides several processing methods depending on the final product (orthophoto, pointcloud, digital surface model – DSM), data size (number of photos and resolution), and image acquisition mode (terrestrial vs. airborne, horizontal vs. oblique). For texturing, the reconstructed surface is divided into fragments and blending is applied to generate a texture atlas. We applied this full processing chain to a large set of 2601 images acquired during airborne flight campaigns with unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and small aircrafts over several thermokarst lakes in the Fairbanks region in April 2012 and October of 2008, 2013 and 2014. In addition, aerial imagery of lakes in an abandoned gravel pit were gathered for comparison to thermokarst lakes and processed the same way. The 2601 aerial images were acquired at mean flight altitudes of 42 m.a.s.l. (UAV) and 327-606 m.a.s.l. (airplane). The images were grouped into seven regions covering sets of target lakes and provided the basis for 23 orthophoto mosaics. The number of images per mosaic ranged between 9 and 585. About 15 ground control points (GCPs) were equally distributed over the covered area for georeferencing. We achieved a ground resolution of 0.02 m/pixel to 0.12 m/pixel, a DSM resolution of 0.03 m/pixel to 0.24 m/pixel, and a point density of about 19 to 1849 points per m², depending strongly on actual flight height and photo resolution. Furthermore, the accuracy for surface reproduction is augmented by increasing image overlap with best results achieved when at least nine photos overlap. In one specific case, when image acquisition was conducted within a low flight altitude of 42 m.a.s.l. the SfM-method failed to align five overlapping images in the center of a thermokarst lake (Goldstream Lake) due to the absence of detectable ice surface features (such as bubbles or cracks) underneath the ice cover. The placement of temporary markers in the misaligned images still did not result in a sufficient matching quality; hence these unaligned photos were not taken into account for further processing. Future field campaigns with UAVs at low flight altitudes over lake ice should therefore include installation of ground control points across very homogeneous surfaces. Inhomogeneous or changing illumination conditions during a flight campaign could also lead to poorer photo alignment due to false corner and edge detection. Orthomosaics consisting of images taken under changing illumination situations (e.g. sunrise, sunset) may result in irregular color parametrization. The final orthomosaics are of high quality and can be used in further studies aiming at the identification, mapping, and quantification of methane ebullition features in the lake ice. In particular, the detection and characterization of different methane bubble cluster types is enhanced by the very high resolution of the orthophotos. In a further step, the estimation of whole-lake ebullition seep fluxes and the year-to-year development of ebullition seep features seem feasible. Additionally, it would be of major interest to test the practicability and accuracy of SfM generated high resolution repeat DSMs for detecting and quantifying thermoerosion at lake margins. For this, filtering vegetation, assigning an overlapping value to the point cloud, and evaluating the error of photogrammetric data is essential. Direct cloud-to-cloud or cloud-tomesh distance measurements and horizontal displacement fields from tracking features could be applied for broader analysis. The presented investigations show, that using SfM within Agisoft PhotoScan Professional™ for processing aerial imagery is a suitable method to generate high resolution orthophoto mosaics that subsequently can be used to characterize ice-trapped ebullition bubbles and bubble clusters on thermokarst lake ice cover. The new dimension of information gain due to the very high resolution within centimeter range in orthophotos, point clouds, and DSMs using SfM offers new insights for better understanding biogeochemical and geomorphological processes in periglacial environments, in particular processes related to thermokarst dynamics such as lake methane ebullition or shore erosion. References: Lindgren PR, Grosse G, Walter Anthony KM, Meyer FJ. 2015. Detecting methane ebullition on thermokarst lake ice using high resolution optical aerial imagery. Biogeosciences Discussions 12: 7449–7490. DOI: 10.5194/bgd-12-7449-2015. Walter KM, Zimov SA, Chanton JP, Verbyla D, Chapin III FS. 2006. Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming. Nature 443: 71-75. DOI: 10.1038/nature05040

Reconciling carbon-stock estimates for the Yedoma region

Permafrost soil organic carbon (C) in the Yedoma region comprises a large fraction of the total circumpolar permafrost C pool, yet estimates based on different approaches during the past decade have led to disagreement in the size and composition of the Yedoma region permafrost C pool. This research aims to reconcile different approaches and show that after accounting for thermokarst and fluvial erosion processes of this interglacial period, the Yedoma region C pool (456 ± 45 Pg C) is the sum of 172 ± 19 Pg Holocene-aged C and 284 ± 40 Pg Pleistocene-aged C. The size of the present-day Pleistocene-aged Yedoma C pool was originally estimated to be 450 Pg based on a mean deposit thickness of 25 m, 1×106 km2 areal extent, 2.6% total organic C content, 1.65times103 kg m−3dry bulk density, and 50% volumetric ice wedge content (Zimov et al. 2006). This estimate assumed that 17% of the Last Glacial Maximum yedoma C stock was lost to greenhouse gas production and emission when 50% of yedoma thawed beneath lakes during the Holocene. However, the regional scale yedoma C pool estimate of Zimov et al. (2006) did not include any Holocene C and assumed that all of the 450 Pg C was Pleistocene-aged. In subsequent global permafrost C syntheses, soil organic C content (SOCC, kg C m−2) data from the Northern Circumpolar Soil C Database (NCSCD) and Zimov et al. (2006) were used to estimate the soil organic C pool for the Yedoma region (450 Pg), assuming only Pleistocene-aged yedoma C from 3 to 25 m (407 Pg), and a mixture of C ages in the 0 to 3 m interval (43 Pg). A more recent synthesis of Yedoma-region C stocks based on extensive sampling by Strauss et al. (2013) took into account lower C bulk density values of yedoma, higher organic C concentrations of yedoma, a larger landscape fraction of thermokarst (70% of Yedoma region area), the larger C concentration of thermokarst, and remote-sensing based quantification of ice-wedge volumes. This synthesis produced lower mean- and median-based estimates of Yedoma-region C, 348+73 Pg and 211 +160/-153 Pg respectively. However, Strauss et al. (2013) focused on the remaining undisturbed yedoma and refrozen surface thermokarst deposits and thus did not include taberite deposits, which are the re-frozen remains of Yedoma previously thawed beneath thermokarst lakes and still present in large quantities on the landscape. In our study (Walter Anthony et al. 2014), we measured the dry bulk density directly on 89 yedoma and 311 thermokarst-basin samples, including taberites, collected in four yedoma subregions of the North Siberian Kolyma Lowlands. Multiplying the organic matter content of an individual sample by the same sample’s measured bulk density yielded an organic C bulk density data set for yedoma samples that was normally distributed. Combining our subregion-specific organic C bulk density results with those of Strauss et al. (2013) for other yedoma subregions extending to the far western extent of Siberian yedoma, we determined a mean organic C bulk density of yedoma for the total Yedoma region (26 ± 1.5 kg C m-3), which is similar to that previously suggested by Strauss et al. (2013) (27 kg C m-3 mean based approach; 16 kg C m-3 median based approach). Our estimate of the organic C pool size of undisturbed yedoma permafrost (129 ± 30 Pg Pleistocene C) in the 396,600 ± 39,700 km2 area that has not been degraded by thermokarst since the Last Glacial Maximum is based on this regional-mean C bulk density value. Our calculation also assumes an average yedoma deposit thickness of 25 m and 50% volumetric massive ice wedge content, as in previous estimates (Zimov et al. 2006, NCSCD; Table 1). Similar results found in the recent study of the Yedoma-region C inventory by Strauss et al.(2013) corroborate our estimate of the undisturbed yedoma C inventory. The size of the remaining yedoma C pool was estimated by Strauss et al. (2013) to be 112 Pg (vs. 129 Pg, this study) based on mean parameter values: organic C bulk density 27 kg C cm-3 (vs. 26.2 kg C cm-3 in this study), yedoma deposit thickness 19.4 m (vs. 25 m in this study), Yedoma volumetric ice wedge content 48% (vs. 50% in this study), and thermokarst extent (70% in both studies). The two studies took different approaches for estimating yedoma deposit thicknesses: Strauss et al. (2013) used 22 field sites from Siberia and Alaska with a mean thickness of 19.4 m; our calculations used a thickness value determined from Russian literature (25 ± 5m, references in Walter Anthony et al. 2014). The mean derived from our limited (n=17) field sites was 38 m in the Kolyma region. The two studies further differ slightly in calculating Yedoma-region area: Strauss et al. (2013), which focused on still frozen deposits vulnerable to future thaw, did not include thawed deposits in present-day lakes, but did include deposits in known smaller yedoma occurrences outside the core Yedoma region such as valleys of NW Canada, Chukotka, and the Taymyr Peninsula. Our study focused on the extent of core-yedoma deposits as well as organic-C stored in present-day Yedoma lake deposits. While differences in yedoma thickness and area values can impact upscaling calculations, efforts are underway by the Yedoma region synthesis IPA Action Group (Strauss and colleagues) to analyze more comprehensive data sets and better constrain the values. Based on our approach that includes a differentiation of thermokarst-lake facies, we estimate that 155 Pg Pleistocene-aged organic C is stored in thermokarst-lake basins and thermoerosional gullies in the Yedoma region of Beringia [155 Pg is the sum of 114 Pg in taberite deposits and 41 Pg in various lacustrine facies]. This 155 Pg Pleistocene-aged C represents the remains of yedoma that thawed and partially decomposed beneath and in thermokarst lakes and streams. Altogether we estimate a total Pleistocene-C pool size of 284 ± 40 Pg for the Beringian Yedoma region in the present day as the sum of Pleistocene C in undisturbed yedoma (129 Pg) and in thermokarst basins (155 Pg). Separately, Holocene-aged organic C assimilated and sequestered in deglacial thermokarst basins in the Yedoma-region is 159 ± 24 Pg. Our upscaling is based on the mean C stocks of individual permafrost exposures (Fig. 2e in Walter Anthony et al. 2014), which were normally distributed. To our knowledge, this is the first study to combine a geomorphologic classification of alas facies with C content, including the deeper lacustrine deposits, for the purpose of systematically upscaling to a regional alas C inventory. We did not measure the C content of Holocene terrestrial soils overlying undisturbed yedoma permafrost; however, applying values from the NCSCD in Siberia for Histels (44.3 kg C m-2, 9% of Yedoma region area), Orthels (26.0 kg C m-2, 17% of Yedoma region area) and Turbels (38.4 kg C m-2, 63% of Yedoma region area) to the extent of 1-m surface deposits overlying the area of undisturbed Yedoma permafrost (396,000 ± 39,600 km2), results in 12.9 ± 1.3 Pg of Holocene C. This calculation assumes that the 70/30 ratio of thermokarst to undisturbed yedoma applies across the Histel, Orthel and Turbel cover classes. Altogether, we estimate the Holocene and Pleistocene organic C pool size in the Yedoma region of Beringia as 456 ± 45 Pg (38% Holocene, 62% Pleistocene). Despite the differences in approaches and locations of study sites, similarities in the meanbased estimates of the Yedoma-region organic C pool size between Strauss et al. (2013) and this study corroborate our findings. Not accounting for diagenetically altered organic C from yedoma thawed in situ beneath lakes (taberites), Strauss et al. (2013) estimated 348 Pg C for the regional pool size. Without taberite C, our estimate would be similar (342 Pg C). For our study, focusing on the C balance shifts from the Pleistocene to the end of the Holocene, we show that taberite deposits are an important component and need to be included in the budget as these deposits are a large C pool that represents diagenetically-altered organic C from yedoma thawed in situ beneath lakes (Table 1b). Our estimate of yedoma-derived taberite deposits underlying thermokarst basins (114 Pg C), would bring the Yedoma-region C pool estimate by Strauss et al. (2013) up to 462 Pg C, which is similar to our estimate of 456 Pg C. In summary, the Yedoma-region organic C value (456 ± 45 Pg C, consisting of Pleistocene and Holocene C) determined by this study is similar to that calculated originally by Zimov et al. (2006) to represent only the Pleistocene yedoma C pool (450 Pg). Subsequently, the Pleistocene-aged yedoma C was considered to be 450 Pg C. Pleistocene-aged Yedoma carbon was considered to be >90% of the regional pool by the subsequent NCSCD syntheses for quantification of circumpolar permafrost carbon. The primary difference between the Yedoma-region C pool estimate presented here versus Zimov et al. (2006), which entered the NCSCD syntheses, is that in this study net C gains associated with a widespread thermokarst process are taken into account. The component of Pleistocene yedoma C was reduced in this study by 38% and a new Holocene-thermokarst C pool (159 Pg) was introduced. We lowered the Pleistocene-aged yedoma C pool based on larger, more recent data sets on yedoma’s dry bulk density by this study and Strauss et al. (2013) and based on our more recent map-based analysis showing a 20% larger areal extent of deep thermokarst activity in the Yedoma region. The major implications of this study pertain to the nature and fate of greenhouse gas emissions associated with permafrost thaw in the Yedoma region. Differentiation of the C pool in the Yedoma region (yedoma vs. thermokarst basins) is critical to understanding past and future C dynamics and climate feedbacks. Since a larger fraction of the yedoma landscape has already been degraded by thermokarst during the Holocene (70% instead of 50%), the size of the anaerobically-vulnerable yedoma C pool for the production of methane is 40% lower than that previously calculated. Second, there is concern that permafrost thaw will mobilize and release ’ancient’ organic C to the atmosphere. Assuming average radiocarbon ages of Pleistocene-yedoma and Holocene deposits of 30 kya and 6.5 kya respectively, accounting for the new Holocene-aged thermokarst C pool (159 Pg C) lowers the average age of the current Yedoma-region C pool by about one third. This result is important to global C-cycle modeling since C isotope signatures provide valuable constraints in models. Finally, given differences in permafrost soil organic matter origins for the Pleistocene-aged steppe-tundra yedoma C pool [accumulated under aerobic conditions; froze within decades to centuries after burial; and remained frozen for tens of thousands of years] and the lacustrine Holocene-aged C pool [accumulated predominately under anaerobic conditions and remained thawed for centuries to millennia prior to freezing after lakes drained], it is likely that organic matter degradability differs substantially between these two pools. This has implications for differences in their vulnerability to decomposition and greenhouse gas production under scenarios of permafrost thaw in the future. References: Strauss J., Schirrmeister L, Grosse G, Wetterich W, Ulrich M, Herzschuh U, Hubberten H-W. 2013. The deep permafrost carbon pool of the Yedoma region in Siberia and Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 6165–6170. Walter Anthony K M, Zimov SA, Grosse G, Jones MC, Anthony P, Chapin III FS, Finlay JC, Mack mC, Davydov S, Frenzel P, Frolking S. 2014. A shift of thermokarst lakes from carbon sources to sinks during the Holocene epoch. Nature, 511, 452-456, DOI:10.1038/nature13560. Zimov,SA, Schuur EAG, Chapin FS. 2006. Permafrost and the global carbon budget. Science 312: 1612–1613

Permafrost aggradation reduces peatland methane fluxes during the Holocene

Methane emissions from northern high latitude wetlands are one of the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane, contributing an estimated 20% of the natural terrestrial methane emissions to the atmosphere. Methane fluxes vary among wetland types and are generally higher in peatlands, wetlands with > 40 cm of organic soil, than in wetlands with mineral soils. However, permafrost aggradation in peatlands reduces methane fluxes through the drying of the peat surface, which can decrease both methane production and increase methane oxidation within the peat. We reconstruct methane emissions from peatlands during the Holocene using a synthesis of peatland environmental classes determined from plant macrofossil records in peat cores from > 250 sites across the pan-arctic. We find methane emissions from peatlands decreased by 20% during the Little Ice Age due to the aggradation of permafrost within peatlands during this period. These bottom-up estimates of methane emissions for the present day are in agreement with other regional estimates and are significantly lower than the peak in peatland methane emissions 1300 years before present. Our results indicate that methane emissions from high latitude wetlands have been an important contributor to atmospheric methane concentrations during the Holocene and will likely change in the future with permafrost thaw

Massive thermokarst lake area loss in continuous ice-rich permafrost of the northern Seward Peninsula, Northwestern Alaska, 1949-2015

Thermokarst lakes are important factors for permafrost landscape dynamics and carbon cycling. Thermokarst lake cover is especially high in Arctic lowlands with ice-rich permafrost. In most of these regions, multiple lake generations have been identified that overlap each other in space and time, giving rise to the hypothesis of thermokarst lake cycling and its association with complex cryostratigraphical conditions where multiple lacustrine and palustrine sequences may follow on top of each other and talik and carbon cycle histories are complicated. In northwestern Alaska on the northern Seward Peninsula, ice-rich permafrost lowlands have strongly been affected by thermokarst during the Holocene and up to six generations of lake basins overlap spatially (Jones et al., 2012). Modern thermokarst lakes are also abundant in this region and expand gradually by thermo-erosion along shores (Jones et al., 2011). We here report on the analysis of multi-temporal remote sensing data for a 12,200 km2 lowland area in the relatively warm continuous permafrost zone of the northern Seward Peninsula, demonstrating that thermokarst lake drainage in this region was occurring on a massive scale from 1949-2015. Contrary to most previous studies that suggest an increase in thermokarst lake area in continuous permafrost, we observed a significant net decrease in thermokarst lake area largely due to catastrophic lake drainage. Lateral lake expansion by thermo-erosion continued but did not offset the net area loss. Climate data analysis revealed a potential correlation with increased winter precipitation that may have resulted in a combination of high lake water levels, increased spring runoff with higher potential for drainage channel formation, and near-surface permafrost degradation, ultimately enhancing lake drainage. The observed magnitude of lake drainage implicates strong and lasting impacts on regional hydrology, biogeochemical cycling, surface energy budgets, state of the permafrost, ecosystem character, waterfowl and fish habitats, and subsistence lifestyles in the study region, portions of which belong to the Bering Land Bridge National Preserve. The datasets used in this analysis include a wide range of remote sensing images and topographic data available for this region, such as aerial photography, historic topographic maps, high resolution satellite images (Corona, Spot, Ikonos, Quickbird, Worldview, GeoEye), and the full Landsat archive. Field studies included reconnaissance flights targeting freshly drained lakes and ground based data collection such as lake basin coring. Our findings suggest that a significant portion of lakes in this region has drained over the last decades and that in particular large lakes are vulnerable to disappearance. Initial analyses of relationships of lake drainages with permafrost distribution in the region suggest positive correlations between lake loss and permafrost degradation in much of the region. Our findings highlight that permafrost and lake-rich landscapes in Alaska are already changing rapidly and permanently in a warming world. This set of studies was supported by funding from NASA Carbon Cycle Sciences, NSF Arctic System Sciences, the European Research Council, and the Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative. References: Jones B, Grosse G, Arp CD, Jones MC, Walter Anthony KM, Romanovsky VE (2011): Modern thermokarst lake dynamics in the continuous permafrost zone, northern Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences, 116, G00M03. Jones MC, Grosse G, Jones BM, Walter Anthony KM (2012): Peat accumulation in a thermokarstaffected landscape in continuous ice-rich permafrost, Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research – Biogeosciences, 117, G00M07

Present-day permafrost carbon feedback from thermokarst lakes

Rapid temperature rise during recent decades (IPCC 2013) is causing permafrost in the Arctic to warm and thaw. This thaw exposes previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial decomposition, generating greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in a feedback process that leads to further warming and thaw. A growing number of studies model the future permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) to climate warming [Koven et al., 2015, Schneider von Deimling et al., 2015]. However, despite observations of widespread permafrost thaw during recent decades and forecasts of thaw during the next 25-100 years [Koven et al., 2015], no research has quantified the PCF for recent decades. This is in part due to the difficulty of detecting the net movement of old carbon from permafrost to the atmosphere over years and decades amidst large input and output fluxes from ecosystem carbon exchange. In contrast to terrestrial environments, thermokarst lakes provide a direct conduit for processing and emission of old permafrost carbon to the atmosphere, and these emissions are more readily detectable. Results here are based on Walter Anthony et al. [submitted], whereby we quantified the permafrost SOC input to a variety of thermokarst and glacial lakes in Alaska and Siberia in thermokarst zones, defined as areas where land surfaces have transitioned to open lakes due to permafrost thaw during the past 60 years, the historical period most commonly covered by remote-sensing data sets. We also quantified the resulting methane emitted from these active thermokarst lake zones. Using field work, numerical modeling of thaw bulbs, remote sensing and spatial data analysis we will report on the relationship between methane emissions from thermokarst zones and SOC inputs to lakes across gradients of permafrost and climate in Alaska. We will also define the relationship between radiocarbon ages of methane and permafrost soil carbon entering into lakes upon thaw. We will report on the presentday PCF relationship between thaw of permafrost SOC and resulting greenhouse gas release. An extrapolation of our results to the panarctic permafrost region will be presented and compared to permafrost carbon mass balance approaches. The fraction of the terrestrial permafrost carbon pool that has been released as methane from thermokarst along lake margins during the past 60 years will be evaluated relative to early Holocene thermokarst lake emissions and projected permafrost carbon emissions by year 2100. The data will be placed in the context of large regional temperature increases in the Arctic, up to 7.5 °C by 2100, and thicker, organic-rich Holocene-aged deposits subject to thaw and aerobic decomposition as active layer deepens. We will report on the inflection of large permafrost carbon emissions that is imminently expected to occur and whether or not it has commenced. References: Koven, C.D.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Schädel, C.; Bohn, T.J.; Burke, E.J.; Chen, G.; Chen, X.; Ciais, P.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Jafarov, E.E.; Krinner, G.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; MacDougall, A.H.; Marchenko, S.S.; McGuire, A.D.; Natali, S.M.; Nicolsky, D.J.; Olefeldt, D.; Peng, S.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.M.; Strauss, J.; Treat, C.C. and Turetsky, M. [2015]: A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373, doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0423. Schneider von Deimling, T.; Grosse, G.; Strauss, J.; Schirrmeister, L.; Morgenstern, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Meinshausen, M. and Boike, J. [2015]: Observationbased modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity. Biogeosciences, 12(11):3469–3488, doi:10.5194/bg-12-3469-2015. Walter Anthony, K.; Daanen, R.; Anthony, P.; Schneider von Deimling, T.; Ping, C.-L.; Chanton, J. and Grosse, G. [submitted]: Ancient methane emissions from ˜60 years of permafrost thaw in arctic lakes

Carbon accumulation in thermokarst lakes: A biogeochemical comparison between Alaskan boreal and tundra lake deposits

Thermokarst lakes are widespread features of changing periglacial environments. In this study, we analyze total organic carbon content (TOC), C/N, stable carbon isotopes and methane concentration in pore water from sediments of 18 tundra lakes in West Alaska and 11 boreal lakes in Central Alaska in order to discuss differences in carbon accumulation, sources of organic matter and their role in the carbon cycle. While a wide range of TOC content was measured in West Alaska with highest TOC in lakes that initiated in drained lake basins, some boreal lakes in Central Alaska, like Goldstream Lake show surprisingly low TOC. Similar finding in CH4 concentration suggest that state of permafrost, the age of the lakes and the catchment characteristics have an important influence on sources of organic carbon and, thus, different potential of thermokarst lakes to contribute to the global carbon cycle

Clumped Isotopes Link Older Carbon Substrates With Slower Rates of Methanogenesis in Northern Lakes

The release of long‐stored carbon from thawed permafrost could fuel increased methanogenesis in northern lakes, but it remains unclear whether old carbon substrates released from permafrost are metabolized as rapidly by methanogenic microbial communities as recently produced organic carbon. Here, we apply methane (CH₄) clumped isotope (Δ₁₈) and ¹⁴C measurements to test whether rates of methanogenesis are related to carbon substrate age. Results from culture experiments indicate that Δ₁₈ values are negatively correlated with CH₄ production rate. Measurements of ebullition samples from thermokarst lakes in Alaska and glacial lakes in Sweden indicate strong negative correlations between CH₄ Δ₁₈ and the fraction modern carbon. These correlations imply that CH₄ derived from older carbon substrates is produced relatively slowly. Relative rates of methanogenesis, as inferred from Δ₁₈ values, are not positively correlated with CH₄ flux estimates, highlighting the likely importance of environmental variables other than CH₄ production rates in controlling ebullition fluxes

Clumped Isotopes Link Older Carbon Substrates With Slower Rates of Methanogenesis in Northern Lakes

The release of long‐stored carbon from thawed permafrost could fuel increased methanogenesis in northern lakes, but it remains unclear whether old carbon substrates released from permafrost are metabolized as rapidly by methanogenic microbial communities as recently produced organic carbon. Here, we apply methane (CH₄) clumped isotope (Δ₁₈) and ¹⁴C measurements to test whether rates of methanogenesis are related to carbon substrate age. Results from culture experiments indicate that Δ₁₈ values are negatively correlated with CH₄ production rate. Measurements of ebullition samples from thermokarst lakes in Alaska and glacial lakes in Sweden indicate strong negative correlations between CH₄ Δ₁₈ and the fraction modern carbon. These correlations imply that CH₄ derived from older carbon substrates is produced relatively slowly. Relative rates of methanogenesis, as inferred from Δ₁₈ values, are not positively correlated with CH₄ flux estimates, highlighting the likely importance of environmental variables other than CH₄ production rates in controlling ebullition fluxes

Thermokarst-lake methanogenesis along a complete talik (thaw bulb) profile

Thermokarst (thaw) lakes emit methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, with the carbon (C) originating from terrestrial sources such as the Holocene soils of the lakes’ watersheds, thaw of Holocene- and Pleistoceneaged permafrost soil beneath and surrounding the lakes, and decomposition of contemporary organic matter (OM) in the lakes. However, the relative magnitude of CH4 production in surface lake sediments versus deeper thawed permafrost horizons is not well understood. We assessed anaerobic CH4 production potentials from 22 depths along a 590 cm long lake sediment core from the center of an interior Alaska thermokarst lake, Vault Lake, that captured the entire package of surface lake sediments, the talik (thaw bulb), and the top 40 cm of thawing permafrost beneath the talik. We also studied the adjacent Vault Creek permafrost tunnel that extends through icerich yedoma permafrost soils surrounding the lake and into underlying fluvial gravel. Our results show, in the center of a first generation thermokarst-lake, whole-column CH4 production is dominated by methanogenesis in the organic-rich surface lake sediments [151 cm thick; mean ± SD 5.95 ± 1.67 μg C-CH4 per g dry weight sediment per day (g dw−1 d−1); 125.9 ± 36.2 μg C-CH4 per g organic carbon per day (g Corg−1 d−1)]. The organic-rich surface sediments contribute the most (67%) to whole-column CH4 production despite occupying a lesser fraction (26%) of sediment column thickness. High CH4 production potentials were also observed in recently-thawed permafrost (1.18 ± 0.61 μg C-CH4 g dw−1 d−1; 59.60 ± 51.5 μg CCH4 g Corg−1 d−1) at the bottom of the talik, but the narrow thicknesses (43 cm) of this horizon limited its overall contribution to total sediment column CH4 production in the core. Lower rates of CH4 production were observed in sediment horizons representing permafrost that has been thawed in the talik for longer periods of time. The thickest sequence in the Vault Lake core, which consisted of combined Lacustrine silt and Taberite facies (60% of total core thickness), had low CH4 production potentials, contributing only 21% of whole sediment column CH4 production potential. No CH4 production was observed in samples obtained from the permafrost tunnel, whose sediments represent a non-lake environment. Our findings imply that CH4 production is highly variable in thermokarstlake systems and that both modern OM supplied to surface sediments and ancient OM supplied to both surface and deep lake sediments by in situ thaw, as well as shore erosion of yedoma permafrost, are important to lake CH4 production. Knowing where CH4 originates and what proportion of produced CH4 is emitted will aid in estimations of how C release and processing in a thermokarst-lake environment differs from other thawing permafrost and non-permafrost environments. References: Heslop, J.K.; Walter Anthony, K.M.; Sepulveda-Jauregui, A.; Martinez-Cruz, K.; Bondurant, A.; Grosse, G. and Jones, M.C. [2015]: Thermokarst lake methanogenesis along a complete talik profile. Biogeosciences, 12:4317–4331, doi:10.5194/bg-12-4317-2015