El grado de orientación pro-pobre de las políticas económicas peruanas: una revisión bibliográfica

This paper is a balance of the Peruvian economic policies, taken by government in the last decade. We focus on determining, based on the available literature, whether or not this polices have improved the economic well-being of poor people. Furthermore, this balance allows us to give the agenda for future research on these areas, as well as to shed some light about the pro-poor necessary policies. There are several policies that have been taken into account in this balance. Macroeconomic policies; trade and investment policies; specific sector promotion policies (agriculture, industry and mining sector); labor (both formal and informal), capital and land markets; regulation of goods and services markets (telecommunications and electricity); taxation policies; public expenditure; security and risk management mechanisms and, finally, regional policies.

La efectividad de la política fiscal en el Perú: 1980-2006

The aim of this document is to establish the relationship between fiscal policy and the level of economic activity. On the theoretical ground, this is done using a model that links fiscal policy with economic activity, mixing the contractive and/or expansionary effects of a fiscal expansion, given the initial situation of fiscal accounts. On the empirical ground, this is done for the period 1980-2006, testing the predictions produced by the theoretical model. The main results suggest that during the period 1980-1990, characterized by the fragility of the fiscal accounts, fiscal policy had a weak effect on the level of economic activity, whereas during the period 1990- 2006, considered of improvement of fiscal accounts, the effect of fiscal policy is stronger.fiscal policy, Peru, fiscal accounts

Flujos de capital, política monetaria y equilibrio externo

Unlike what happenned in most Latin American economies after the Mexican crisis, the Peruvian trade deficit kept on growing during 1995, in spite of the application of restrictive fiscal and monetary policies. In this paper, a model with free capital mobility, flexible exchange rates and a dollarized banking system is used to show a rather unusual result: that a restrictive monetary policy worsens the commercial deficit. In this institutional framework, capital controls are needed for the Central Bank to be able to regulate the total supply of domestic credit, which in time is a required condition for a restrictive monetary policy to improve the trade balance.

Crisis de balanza de pagos: el Rol de los factores internos y los factores externos

This paper presents a balance-of-payments crises model –in the line of the “firstgeneration” models– in order to estimate the moment in which the fixed exchange rate collapse occurs. In contrast to the standard literature about balance-of-payments crises –which emphasizes the role of macroeconomic policy as a source of fixed exchange rate crises–, this paper shows that, under fixed exchange rate and perfect capital mobility, an adverse international context (like an increase in the international interest rate) could yield a balance–of-payments crises similar to those generated by macroeconomic policy.

Los dos canales de transmisión de la política monetaria en una economía dolarizada

The purpose of this paper is to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy under an institutional framework characterized by a dollarized banking system, a flexible exchange rate and free capital movements. The main result of this study is that a restrictive monetary policy can reactivate the economy if the share of their private debt in dollars is greater. Since a restrictive monetary policy increases the domestic interest rate and appreciates the exchange rate, the real burden of private debt can be reduced, and to increase the private expensive.

Perú, 2001-2005: crecimiento económico y pobreza

It is common to state that the economic growth registered in the last few years has not been correlated with microeconomic welfare. In relation to that idea latter, it is augmented that the actual growth pattern does not allow the spillover of economic growth’s results to the poorer sectors of the economy. In this document we will try to show that, firstly, in theoretical terms, it is very hard to support that a generalized process of economic growth -in the levels of productive sectors and by region- does not contribute to diminishing poverty. Secondly, in terms of Peruvian economy facts, we will try to demonstrate that the statements of the first paragraph of this document, as well as the ones linked to the idea of a “biased growth patternâ€, and the arguments about poverty and inequality increments, does not have correspondence to what is actually observed. We could make a preliminary conclusion: generalized and sustained economic growth is an indispensable and sufficient condition to reduce poverty in the long term.

En defensa del neoliberalismo

La nota no presenta resumen