Number Needed to Treat (or Harm)

The effect of a treatment versus controls may be expressed in relative or absolute terms. For rational decision-making, absolute measures are more meaningful. The number needed to treat, the reciprocal of the absolute risk reduction, is a powerful estimate of the effect of a treatment. It is particularly useful because it takes into account the underlying risk (what would happen without the intervention?). The number needed to treat tells us not only whether a treatment works but how well it works. Thus, it informs health care professionals about the effort needed to achieve a particular outcome. A number needed to treat should be accompanied by information about the experimental intervention, the control intervention against which the experimental intervention has been tested, the length of the observation period, the underlying risk of the study population, and an exact definition of the endpoint. A 95% confidence interval around the point estimate should be calculated. An isolated number needed to treat is rarely appropriate to summarize the usefulness of an intervention; multiple numbers needed to treat for benefit and harm are more helpful. Absolute risk reduction and number needed to treat should become standard summary estimates in randomized controlled trial

Prevention of Bloodstream Infections With Central Venous Catheters Treated With Anti-Infective Agents Depends on Catheter Type and Insertion Time: Evidence From a Meta-Analysis

Objective: To test the evidence that the risk of infection related to central venous catheters (CVCs) is decreased by anti-infective coating or cuffing. Design: Systematic review of randomized, controlled trials comparing anti-infective with inactive (control) CVCs. Interventions: Average insertion times were taken as a measurement of the length of insertion. Dichotomous data were combined using a fixed effect model and expressed as odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI95). Results: Two trials on antibiotic coating (343 CVCs) had an average insertion time of 6 days; the risk of BSI decreased from 5.1% with control to 0% with anti-infective catheters. There were no trials with longer average insertion times. In three trials on silver collagen cuffs (422 CVCs), the average insertion time ranged from 5 to 8.2 days (median, 7 days); the risk of BSI was 5.6% with control and 3.2% with anti-infective catheters. In another trial on silver collagen cuffs (101 CVCs), the average insertion time was 38 days; the risk of BSI was 3.7% with control and 4.3% with anti-infective catheters. In five trials on chlorhexidine-silver sulfadiazine coating (1,269 CVCs), the average insertion time ranged from 5.2 to 7.5 days (median, 6 days); the risk of BSI decreased from 4.1% with control to 1.9% with anti-infective catheters. In five additional trials on chlorhexidine-silver sulfadiazine coating (1,544 CVCs), the average insertion time ranged from 7.8 to 20 days (median, 12 days); the risk of BSI was 4.5% with control and 4.2% with anti-infective catheters. Conclusions: Antibiotic and chlorhexidine-silver sulfadiazine coatings are anti-infective for short (approximately 1 week) insertion times. For longer insertion times, there are no data on antibiotic coating, and there is evidence of lack of effect for chlorhexidine-silver sulfadiazine coating. For silver-impregnated collagen cuffs, there is evidence of lack of effect for both short- and long-term insertio

Implicit Surface Modelling as an Eigenvalue Problem

We discuss the problem of fitting an implicit shape model to a set of points sampled from a co-dimension one manifold of arbitrary topology. The method solves a non-convex optimisation problem in the embedding function that defines the implicit by way of its zero level set. By assuming that the solution is a mixture of radial basis functions of varying widths we attain the globally optimal solution by way of an equivalent eigenvalue problem, without using or constructing as an intermediate step the normal vectors of the manifold at each data point. We demonstrate the system on two and three dimensional data, with examples of missing data interpolation and set operations on the resultant shapes

Matrix metalloproteinase 9 and cellular fibronectin plasma concentrations are predictors of the composite endpoint of length of stay and death in the intensive care unit after severe traumatic brain injury

BACKGROUND: The relationship between severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and blood levels of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) or cellular fibronectin (c-Fn) has never been reported. In this study, we aimed to assess whether plasma concentrations of MMP-9 and c-Fn could have predictive values for the composite endpoint of intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) of survivors and mortality after severe TBI. Secondary outcomes were the state of consciousness measured with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of survivors at 14 days and Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) at 3 months. METHODS: Forty-nine patients with abbreviated injury scores of the head region ≥ 4 were included. Blood was sampled at 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours after injury. MMP-9 and c-Fn concentrations were measured by ELISA. The values of MMP-9 and c-Fn, and, for comparison, the value of the GCS on the field of the accident (fGCS), as predictors of the composite outcome of ICU LOS and death were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: There was a linear relationship between maximal MMP-9 concentration, measured during the 6-12-hour period, and maximal c-Fn concentration, measured during the 24-48-hour period. The risk of staying longer than 9 days in the ICU or of dying was increased in patients with a maximal early MMP-9 concentration ≥ 21.6 ng/ml (OR = 5.0; 95% CI: 1.3 to 18.6; p = 0.02) or with a maximal late c-Fn concentration ≥ 7.7 μg/ml (OR = 5.4; 95% CI: 1.4 to 20.8; p = 0.01). A similar risk association was observed with fGCS ≤8 (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.2-15.8; p = 0.02). No relationship was observed between MMP-9, c-Fn concentrations or fGCS and the GCS at 14 days of survivors and GOSE at 3 months. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma MMP-9 and c-Fn concentrations in the first 48 hours after injury are predictive for the composite endpoint of ICU LOS and death after severe TBI but not for consciousness at 14 days and outcome at 3 months

Historical Spruce Abundance in Central Europe: A Combined Dendrochronological and Palynological Approach

Spruce is the most cultivated tree species in modern forestry in Central Europe, since it has the ability to grow on many soil types with profitable biomass accumulation. However, even-aged and uniform spruce forests are affected by recurring droughts and associated biotic stressors leading to large-scale diebacks across Central Europe causing controversies among foresters and nature conservationists. We investigate the role of spruce in historical woodlands by using 15666 spruce timbers from historical buildings and on the basis of pollen-based land cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 157 pollen sites in southern Central Europe. Start and end dates of the spruce timber samples and their dendrological characteristics (age, growth rates and stem diameters) were used to obtain information on past forest structures. Tree rings and REVEALS estimates are combined at a spatial scale of 1° × 1° resolution, grouped in four sub-regions, and a temporal resolution of 100-year time windows starting from 1150 to 1850 CE. We found that spruce dominates the species assemblage of construction timber with almost 41% and that the harvest age varies little through time, whereas a declining trend in growth rates and stem diameters are observed toward times before modern forestry. Temporal and regional differences in spruce abundance and building activity were found highlighting periods of (i) land abandonment and forest expansion in the 14th century, (ii) increased wood consumption during the 16th century due to population increase and beginning industrial developments, (iii) a forest recovery during and after the Thirty years' war, and (iv) afforestation efforts from the 1650s onwards. Furthermore, this study shows that spruce was constantly present in the study area in most studied sub-regions for the last 800 years. We demonstrate the need of combining tree-ring and pollen data to identify spatiotemporal patterns in spruce abundance and utilization.publishedVersio

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT