Persistent growth of a young andesite lava cone: Bagana volcano, Papua New Guinea

Bagana, an andesite lava cone on Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea, is thought to be a very young central volcano. We have tested this idea by estimating the volumes of lava extruded over different time intervals (1-, 2-, 3-, 9-, 15-, 70- years) using digital elevation models (DEMs), mainly created from satellite data. Our results show that the long-term extrusion rate at Bagana, measured over years to decades, has remained at about 1.0 m3s-1. We present models of the total edifice volume, and show that, if our measured extrusion rates are representative, the volcano could have been built in only ~300 years. It could also possibly have been built at a slower rate during a longer, earlier period of growth. Six kilometres NNW of Bagana, an andesite-dacite volcano, Billy Mitchell, had a large, caldera-forming plinian eruption 437 years ago. We consider the possibility that, as a result of this eruption, the magma supply was diverted from Billy Mitchell to Bagana. It seems that Bagana is a rare example of a very youthful, polygenetic, andesite volcano. The characteristics of such a volcano, based on the example of Bagana, are: a preponderance of lava products over pyroclastic products, a high rate of lava extrusion maintained for decades, a very high rate of SO2 emission, evidence of magma batch fractionation and location in a trans-tensional setting at the end of an arc segment above a very steeply dipping and rapidly converging subduction zone

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: an example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes

Geosynchronous SAR for Terrain & atmosphere with short revisit (GeoSTARe)

Geo STA Re would be a mission combining the continuous view capabilities from geostationary orbits of super-continental areas with the all-day, all-weather imaging capabilities of Synthetic Aperture Radar. It would complement Copernicus Sentinel-1 bringing the repeat time from days down to hours. In that, it would provide novel and unique observations. The well proven potentials of Radar in sensing roughness, deformations, and moisture, combined with the short time to get any image, from minutes to an hour, and the immediate data download and exploitation (thanks to the geostationary orbit) makes GeoSTARe a game changer in those fields where hourly-to-daily monitoring is a must

Using satellite radar amplitude imaging for monitoring syn-eruptive changes in surface morphology at an ice-capped stratovolcano

Satellite-based measurements of synthetic aperture radar amplitude provide a method for monitoring volcanoes during unrest and eruptions even when visual observations are not possible, for example due to poor weather or at night, and when radar phase measurements are noisy or decorrelated. Here, we use high resolution radar amplitude images from the TerraSAR-X and COSMO SkyMed satellites to investigate surface changes associated with explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador in August 2015. We generate change difference and amplitude ratio maps spanning the start of explosive activity at Cotopaxi, which show complex spatial variations in radar amplitude both on and around the summit ice-cap that we attribute to a number of processes related to the eruption. Observed amplitude decreases are caused by crater deepening, ashfall onto ice and surface smoothing by ashfall onto slopes facing away from the satellite, while amplitude increases are due to deposition of coarse lapilli and wet tephra, increased soil saturation due to geothermally driven glacier melting, and smoothing of slopes facing towards the satellite. We discuss the potential applications of radar amplitude images for monitoring and hazard evaluation at active volcanoes

Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model

The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004-5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3 km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice

Decaying lava extrusion rate at El Reventador Volcano, Ecuador measured using high-resolution satellite radar

Lava extrusion at erupting volcanoes causes rapid changes in topography and morphology on the order of tens or even hundreds of metres. Satellite radar provides a method for measuring changes in topographic height over a given time period to an accuracy of metres, either by measuring the width of radar shadow cast by steep sided features, or by measuring the difference in radar phase between two sensors separated in space. We measure height changes, and hence estimate extruded lava volume flux, at El Reventador, Ecuador between 2011 and 2016, using data from the Radarsat-2 and TanDEM-X satellite missions. We find 39 new lava flows were extruded between 9 February 2012 and 24 August 2016, with a cumulative volume of 44.8M m3 dense rock equivalent and a gradually decreasing eruption rate. The average dense rock rate of lava extrusion during this time is 0.31 ± 0.02 m3s−1, which is similar to the long term average from 1972 to 2016. Apart from a volumetrically small dyke opening event between 9 March and 10 June 2012, lava extrusion at El Reventador is not accompanied by any significant magmatic ground deformation. We use a simple physics-based model to estimate that the volume of the magma reservoir under El Reventador is greater than 3 km3. Our lava extrusion data can be equally well fit by models representing a closed reservoir depressurising during the eruption with no magma recharge, or an open reservoir with a time-constant magma recharge rate of up to 0.35 ± 0.01 m3s−

G-CLASS: geosynchronous radar for water cycle science - orbit selection and system design

The mission geosynchronous – continental land atmosphere sensing system (G-CLASS) is designed to study the diurnal water cycle, using geosynchronous radar. Although the water cycle is vital to human society, processes on timescales less than a day are very poorly observed from space. G-CLASS, using C-band geosynchronous radar, could transform this. Its science objectives address intense storms and high resolution weather prediction, and significant diurnal processes such as snow melt and soil moisture change, with societal impacts including agriculture, water resource management, flooding, and landslides. Secondary objectives relate to ground motion observations for earthquake, volcano, and subsidence monitoring. The orbit chosen for G-CLASS is designed to avoid the geosynchronous protected region and enables integration times of minutes to an hour to achieve resolutions down to ∼20 m. Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) enables high temporal resolution imaging (up to several images per hour), rapid response, and very flexible imaging modes which can provide much improved coverage at low latitudes. The G-CLASS system design is based on a standard small geosynchronous satellite and meets the requirements of ESA's Earth Explorer 10 call