Labour market transitions and the persistence of unemployment: West Germany 1983 - 1992

Although explanations of the persistence of high unemployment in Germany, in particular long-term unemployment, have increasingly focused on structural factors, there is only very limited evidence on their empirical importance so far. In this paper, these factors are analyzed based on a microeconometric model of individual transitions from unemployment into employment and non-participation for the West German labour market. The empirical analysis is based on waves 1 - 9 of the Socio-Economic Panel for West Germany covering the period 1983 to 1992. The focus of the study is on the importance of 'negative duration dependence' arising from causal factors and 'sorting' effects due to unobserved heterogeneity in the unemployment pool. I also sort out the relative contribution of various factors, such as individual characteristics, the state of the labour market, and the effects of unemployment benefits on long-term unemployment. --

Has earnings inequality in Germany changed in the 1980's?

The development of the West German earnings distribution in the 1980's is analysed on the basis of both the German Socio-Economic Panel and micro-data from the Employment Register of the Federal Labour Office. We find that earnings inequality in Germany has increased very little in the 1980's, if at all. It is shown ·that the marked increase in earnings inequality found in previous studies based on the register data is a statistical artifact related to a change in the coding of the earnings data. Our decomposition analysis based on estimated earnings functions reveals that the relative stability of the German earnings distribution in the 1980's has not resulted from large compensating changes in the composition of the labour force on the one hand, and changes in the returns to human capital on the other. While both of these components have changed little in the observation period, the former rather than the latter component has contributed to the small increase in earnings inequality observed in the register data. If anything, the earnings differential between skilled and unskilled workers has become smaller during the 1980's, while within-inequality has contributed very little to changes in inequality. Overall, the empirical results of this study seem compatible with an institutional explanation of the stability of the German earnings distribution. --

Self-Employment - a Way to End Unemployment?: Empirical Evidence from German Pseudo-Panel Data

This paper contributes to the policy-relevant question whether self-employment is a way out of (long-term) unemployment. We estimate the relationship between the entry rate into self-employment and previous (long-term) unemployment on the basis of pseudo-panel data for Germany in the period 1996-2002. The estimation method accounts for cohort fixed effects and measurement errors induced by the pseudo panel structure. We find that previous (long-term) unemployment significantly increases entry rates into self-employment for both men and women. These effects are quantitatively important, both in absolute terms and compared to other potential determinants of self-employment transitions, such as age, the level of vocational qualification and certain household characteristics.self-employment, entrepreneurship, entry rate, start-ups, unemployment, pseudo-panel, age and cohort effects

Wages in the East German transition process: facts and explanations

We analyze wage developments in the East German transition process both at the macro and at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we draw special attention to the important distinction between product and consumption wages, describe the development of various wage measures, labor productivity and unit labor costs in East Germany in relation to West Germany, and relate these developments to the system of collective wage bargaining. At the microeconomic level, we describe changes in the distribution of hourly wages between 1990 and 1997 and analyze the economic factors determining these changes by way of empirical wage functions estimated on the basis of the Socio? Economic Panel for East Germany. The paper also draws some conclusions on the likely future course of the East-West German wage convergence process. --

Benefit-Entitlement Effects and the Duration of Unemployment: An Ex-ante Evaluation of Recent Labour Market Reforms in Germany

Abstract: We analyse benefit-entitlement effects and the likely impact of the recent reform of the unemployment compensation system on the duration of unemployment in Germany on the basis of a flexible discrete-time hazard rate model estimated on pre-reform data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). We find (i) relatively strong benefit-entitlement effects for the unemployed who are eligible to means-tested unemployment assistance after the exhaustion of unemployment benefit, but not for those without such entitlement; (ii) non-monotonic benefit-entitlement effects on hazard rates with pronounce spikes around the month of benefit-exhaustion, and (iii) relatively small marginal effects of the amount of unemployment compensation on the duration of unemployment. Our simulation results show that the recent labour market reform is unlikely to have a major impact on the average duration of unemployment in the population as a whole, but will significantly reduce the level of long-term unemployment among older workers.unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, benefit-entitlement effects, German labour market reforms, ex-ante evaluation, hazard rate model