Spatially explicit estimates of forest carbon emissions, mitigation costs and REDD+ opportunities in Indonesia

Carbon emissions from the conversion and degradation of tropical forests contribute to anthropogenic climate change. Implementing programs to reduce emissions from tropical forest loss in Southeast Asia are perceived to be expensive due to high opportunity costs of avoided deforestation. However, these costs are not representative of all REDD+ opportunities as they are typically based on average costs across large land areas and are primarily for reducing deforestation from oil palm or pulp concessions. As mitigation costs and carbon benefits can vary according to site characteristics, spatially-explicit information should be used to assess cost-effectiveness and to guide the allocation of scarce REDD+ resources. We analyzed the cost-effectiveness of the following REDD+ strategies in Indonesia, one of the world's largest sources of carbon emissions from deforestation: halting additional deforestation in protected areas, timber and oil palm concessions, reforesting degraded land and employing reduced-impact logging techniques in logging concessions. We discover that when spatial variation in costs and benefits is considered, low-cost options emerged even for the two most expensive strategies: protecting forests from conversion to oil palm and timber plantations. To achieve a low emissions reduction target of 25%, we suggest funding should target deforestation in protected areas, and oil palm and timber concessions to maximize emissions reductions at the lowest cumulative cost. Low-cost opportunities for reducing emissions from oil palm are where concessions have been granted on deep peat deposits or unproductive land. To achieve a high emissions reduction target of 75%, funding is allocated across all strategies, emphasizing that no single strategy can reduce emissions cost-effectively across all of Indonesia. These findings demonstrate that by using a spatially-targeted approach to identify high priority locations for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, REDD+ resources can be allocated cost-effectively across Indonesia

A comparative assessment of the financial costs and carbon benefits of REDD+ strategies in Southeast Asia

REDD+ holds potential for mitigating emissions from tropical forest loss by providing financial incentives for carbon stored in forests, but its economic viability is under scrutiny. The primary narrative raised in the literature is that REDD+ will be of limited utility for reducing forest carbon loss in Southeast Asia, while the level of finance committed falls short of profits from alternative land-use activities in the region, including large-scale timber and oil palm operations. Here we assess the financial costs and carbon benefits of various REDD+ strategies deployed in the region. We find the cost of reducing emissions ranges from $9 to$75 per tonne of avoided carbon emissions. The strategies focused on reducing forest degradation and promoting forest regrowth are the most cost-effective ways of reducing emissions and used in over 60% of REDD+ projects. By comparing the financial costs and carbon benefits of a broader range of strategies than previously assessed, we highlight the variation between different strategies and draw attention to opportunities where REDD+ can achieve maximum carbon benefits cost-effectively. These findings have broad policy implications for Southeast Asia. Until carbon finance escalates, emissions reductions can be maximized from reforestation, reduced-impact logging and investing in improved management of protected areas. Targeting cost-efficient opportunities for REDD+ is important to improve the efficiency of national REDD+ policy, which in-turn fosters greater financial and political support for the scheme

Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626%

Intact tropical forests, free from substantial anthropogenic influence, store and sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon but are currently neglected in international climate policy. We show that between 2000 and 2013, direct clearance of intact tropical forest areas accounted for 3.2% of gross carbon emissions from all deforestation across the pantropics. However, full carbon accounting requires the consideration of forgone carbon sequestration, selective logging, edge effects, and defaunation. When these factors were considered, the net carbon impact resulting from intact tropical forest loss between 2000 and 2013 increased by a factor of 6 (626%), from 0.34 (0.37 to 0.21) to 2.12 (2.85 to 1.00) petagrams of carbon (equivalent to approximately 2 years of global land use change emissions). The climate mitigation value of conserving the 549 million ha of tropical forest that remains intact is therefore significant but will soon dwindle if their rate of loss continues to accelerate

The extent and predictability of the biodiversity-carbon correlation

Protecting biomass carbon stocks to mitigate climate change has direct implications for biodiversity conservation. Yet, evidence that a positive association exists between carbon density and species richness is contrasting. Here, we test how this association varies (1) across spatial extents and (2) as a function of how strongly carbon and species richness depend on environmental variables. We found the correlation weakens when moving from larger extents, e.g. realms, to narrower extents, e.g. ecoregions. For ecoregions, a positive correlation emerges when both species richness and carbon density vary as functions of the same environmental variables (climate, soil, elevation). In 20% of tropical ecoregions, there are opportunities to pursue carbon conservation with direct biodiversity co-benefits, while other ecoregions require careful planning for both species and carbon to avoid potentially perverse outcomes. The broad assumption of a linear relationship between carbon and biodiversity can lead to undesired outcomes

To Achieve Big Wins for Terrestrial Conservation, Prioritize Protection of Ecoregions Closest to Meeting Targets

Most of the terrestrial world is experiencing high rates of land conversion despite growth of the global protected area (PA) network. There is a need to assess whether the current global protection targets are achievable across all major ecosystem types and to identify those that need urgent protection. Using recent rates of habitat conversion and protection and the latest terrestrial ecoregion map, we show that if the same approach to PA establishment that has been undertaken over the past three decades continues, 558 of 748 ecoregions (ca. 75%) will not meet an aspirational 30% area protection target by 2030. A simple yet strategic acquisition plan that considers realistic futures around habitat loss and PA expansion could more than double the number of ecoregions adequately protected by 2030 given current funding constraints. These results highlight the importance of including explicit ecoregional representation targets within any new post-2020 global PA target

Recent increases in human pressure and forest loss threaten many Natural World Heritage Sites

Natural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), via their formal designation through the United Nations, are globally recognized as containing some of the Earth's most valuable natural assets. Understanding changes in their ecological condition is essential for their ongoing preservation. Here we use two newly available globally consistent data sets that assess changes in human pressure (Human Footprint) and forest loss (Global Forest Watch) over time across the global network of terrestrial NWHS. We show that human pressure has increased in 63% of NWHS since 1993 and across all continents except Europe. The largest increases in pressure occurred in Asian NWHS, many of which were substantially damaged such as Manas Wildlife Sanctuary. Forest loss occurred in 91% of NWHS that contain forests, with a global mean loss of 1.5% per site since 2000, with the largest areas of forest lost occurring in the Americas. For example Wood Buffalo National Park and Rio Platano Biosphere Reserve lost 2581 km(2) (11.7%) and 365 km2 (8.5%) of their forest respectively. We found that on average human pressure increased faster and more forest loss occurred in areas surrounding NWHS, suggesting they are becoming increasingly isolated and are under threat from processes occurring outside their borders. While some NWHS such as the Sinharaja Forest Reserve and Mana Pools National Park showed minimal change in forest loss or human pressure, they are in the minority and our results also suggest many NWHS are rapidly deteriorating and are more threatened than previously thought. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Targeting Global Protected Area Expansion for Imperiled Biodiversity

Governments have agreed to expand the global protected area network from 13% to 17% of the world's land surface by 2020 (Aichi target 11) and to prevent the further loss of known threatened species (Aichi target 12). These targets are interdependent, as protected areas can stem biodiversity loss when strategically located and effectively managed. However, the global protected area estate is currently biased toward locations that are cheap to protect and away from important areas for biodiversity. Here we use data on the distribution of protected areas and threatened terrestrial birds, mammals, and amphibians to assess current and possible future coverage of these species under the convention. We discover that 17% of the 4,118 threatened vertebrates are not found in a single protected area and that fully 85% are not adequately covered (i.e., to a level consistent with their likely persistence). Using systematic conservation planning, we show that expanding protected areas to reach 17% coverage by protecting the cheapest land, even if ecoregionally representative, would increase the number of threatened vertebrates covered by only 6%. However, the nonlinear relationship between the cost of acquiring land and species coverage means that fivefold more threatened vertebrates could be adequately covered for only 1.5 times the cost of the cheapest solution, if cost efficiency and threatened vertebrates are both incorporated into protected area decision making. These results are robust to known errors in the vertebrate range maps. The Convention on Biological Diversity targets may stimulate major expansion of the global protected area estate. If this expansion is to secure a future for imperiled species, new protected areas must be sited more strategically than is presently the case

Data Descriptor: Global terrestrial Human Footprint maps for 1993 and 2009

Remotely-sensed and bottom-up survey information were compiled on eight variables measuring the direct and indirect human pressures on the environment globally in 1993 and 2009. This represents not only the most current information of its type, but also the first temporally-consistent set of Human Footprint maps. Data on human pressures were acquired or developed for: 1) built environments, 2) population density, 3) electric infrastructure, 4) crop lands, 5) pasture lands, 6) roads, 7) railways, and 8) navigable waterways. Pressures were then overlaid to create the standardized Human Footprint maps for all non-Antarctic land areas. A validation analysis using scored pressures from 3114 × 1 km2 random sample plots revealed strong agreement with the Human Footprint maps.We anticipate that the Human Footprint maps will find a range of uses as proxies for human disturbance of natural systems. The updated maps should provide an increased understanding of the human pressures that drive macro-ecological patterns, as well as for tracking environmental change and informing conservation science and application