33 research outputs found
Review of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Georgia - Main Challenges
Review of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Georgia with discussion on main challenges are presented
Expected Changes of the Number of Days with Hail in Tbilisi to 2085
Predictive estimates of the number of hail days (HD) and their moving averages (for 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11 years โ HD_3โฆHD_11) per warm period of year to 2050 and 2085 an example of Tbilisi was performed. Forecasting was carried out using the AAA version of the exponential smoothing (ETS) algorithm taking into account the periodicity in the pre-forecast time series. In particular, the following results were obtained.
For the time series of the measured number of days with hail and HD_11 years, no pronounced peak in periodicity is observed. For time series HD_3, the periodicity is 14 years, HD_5 โ 32 years, HD_7 and HD_9 โ 31 years.
In the period from 2022 to 2050, the range of variability of the average values of the central points of the forecast for the number of days with hail and the values of their 95% upper level is as follows: HD - from 0.9 to 3.8, HD_3 - from 1.0 to 3.0, HD_11 โ from 1.0 to 1.6. In the period from 2022 to 2085, the range of variability of the average values of the central points of the forecast for the number of days with hail and the values of their 95% upper level is as follows: HD_5 - from 0.4 to 3.0, HD_7 - from 0.7 to 1.8, HD_9 - from 0.5 to 3
Statistical analysis of the number of days with hail in Georgia according to meteorological stations data in 2006-2021
A statistical analysis of data on number of days with hail (annual and for period from April to October) in 43 locations of Georgia in 2006-2021 are presented. In particular, the following results are obtained. The max average annual number of days with hail in Akhaltsikhe is observed (3.4). The max annual number of days with hail in Mirveti is observed (16). The max average number of days with hail in warm period in Akhaltsikhe also is observed (3.3). The max number of days with hail in warm period in Khashuri is observed (9). The climate change influence on the number of days with hail during the warm period has been studied. Comparison of the number of days with hail for 30 meteorological stations in 2006-2021 and 1941-1990 showed that in the second period of time, compared to the first period, the number of days with hail at the 18 stations decreased, at the 10 stations - did not change, and increased at only one station (Keda). The data of this work will be used to compile a Natural Hazards Catalog in Georgia
Statistical Characteristics of Flash Flood in Georgia
Results are presented from the analysis of observations data on flash flood in Georgia over a period of 45 years, from 1961 to 2005, provided of the of Hydro-meteorology Service of Georgia
แแกแขแแ แแฃแแ แแแฌแแกแซแแ แแแ แกแแฅแแ แแแแแแจแ (1900 แฌ.-แแแ) - แฌแงแแ แแแแแก แแแแแแแ แแ แแแขแแแแแแก แจแแแแแแ
In the book a new synthesis of 44 earthquakes for each of which parameters such as date, location, magnitude and focal depth are summarized. The detailed description of the individual earthquakes enables the reader, on the bases of citations of historical descriptions, to obtain an overview on basic quantities of information used for individual events. Furthermore, the reasoning for the individual intensity classification is justified.
The total compilation of these data leads to an improved map of the maximum damage distribution for historical earthquakes in Georgia, which is important as contribution to modern seismic hazard and risk assessment.แฌแแ แแจแ แฌแแ แแแแแแแแแแ 44 แแแฌแแกแซแแ แแก แแฎแแแ แแแแแแแแแแแแ แแ แแแแแแแก แแแแแแแแแแ แแกแแแ แแแ แแแแขแ แแแ, แ แแแแ แแชแแ แแแ แแฆแ, แแแแแแแแแแแ แแแแ, แแแแแแขแฃแแ, แแแ แแก แกแแฆแ แแ. แแแแแแแแฃแแแฃแ แ แแแฌแแกแซแแ แแแแก แแแขแแแฃแ แ แแฆแฌแแ แ แแแแแฎแแแแก แแซแแแแก แกแแจแฃแแแแแแก, แแกแขแแ แแฃแแ แแฆแฌแแ แแแแก แชแแขแแขแแแแก แกแแคแฃแซแแแแแ, แแแแฆแแก แแแแแแ แฌแแ แแแแแแแ แซแแ แแแแแ แแแคแแ แแแชแแแก แแแชแฃแแแแแก แจแแกแแฎแแ, แ แแแแแแช แแงแ แแแแแงแแแแแฃแแ แแแแแแแแฃแแแฃแ แ แแแแแแแแแแกแแแแก. แแแ แแ แแแแกแ, แแแชแแแฃแแแ แแแกแแแฃแแแแฃแแ แแกแฏแแแแแ แชแแแแแฃแแ แแแแแแแแก แแแขแแแกแแแแแก แแแแกแแคแแแแชแแแก แจแแกแแฎแแ.
แแ แแแแแชแแแแแแก แแแแแแแแแแแแ แกแแจแฃแแแแแแก แแซแแแแ แแแแแก แกแแฅแแ แแแแแแจแ แแกแขแแ แแฃแแ แแแฌแแกแซแแ แแแแ แแแแแฌแแแฃแแ แแแฅแกแแแแแฃแ แ แแแแแแแแแแแแก แแแแแฌแแแแแแก แแแฃแแฏแแแแกแแแฃแแ แ แฃแแ, แ แแแแแกแแช แแแแจแแแแแแแแแ แฌแแแแแ แจแแแฅแแก แแแแแแแแ แแแ แกแแแกแแฃแ แ แกแแจแแจแ แแแแแก แแ แ แแกแแแก แจแแคแแกแแแแจแ
ะัะพัััะฐะฝััะฒะตะฝะฝะฐั ะกัััะบัััะฐ ะะฟะฐัะฝัั ะะตัะตะพัะพะปะพะณะธัะตัะบะธั ะฏะฒะปะตะฝะธะน ะะฐ ะขะตััะธัะพัะธะธ ะััะทะธะธ
แแแแฎแแแฃแแแ แแกแแแ แกแแจแแจแ แแแขแแแ แแแแแแฃแ แ แแแแแแแแแ, แ แแแแ แแแแชแแ แแแแแแ, แฌแแงแแแแ, แแ แแแแแฃแ แ แฅแแ แ, แแแแ แแแ แแแกแแ แแ แแแแงแแแฃแแ. แแแแแแแแแ แแแขแแแกแแแแแแกแ แแ แจแแกแแแแแแกแ แแแกแแแแแแแแ แแแแแแแแแแแแก แแแแแแแแกแฌแแแแแแ แจแแแฃแจแแแแแฃแแ แกแแแชแแแแฃแ แ แแ แแขแแ แแฃแแแแ แกแแคแฃแซแแแแ แแแแแ GIS-แกแแกแขแแแแแจแ แแ แแแแแแแแแแก แกแแแ แชแแแ แแแ แแแแแแแก แแแแแกแแฎแแแก.The following hazardous meteorological phenomena such are draughts, frosts, stormy winds, mists and glazers have been discussed. The special criteria, elaborated considering the intensity of phenomena and consequent expected damages have been based on the images of the spatial fields of those phenomena in GISะ ะฐััะผะพััะตะฝั ัะฐะบะธะต ะพะฟะฐัะฝัะต ะผะตัะตะพัะพะปะพะณะธัะตัะบะธะต ัะฒะปะตะฝะธั, ะบะฐะบ ะทะฐััั
ะธ, ะทะฐะผะพัะพะทะบะธ, ััะพัะผะพะฒัะต ะฒะตััั, ะฟะปะพัะฝัะน ััะผะฐะฝ ะธ ะณะพะปะพะปะตะด. ะกะฟะตัะธะฐะปัะฝัะต ะบัะธัะตัะธะธ, ัะฐะทัะฐะฑะพัะฐะฝะฝัะต ั ััะตัะพะผ ะธะฝัะตะฝัะธะฒะฝะพััะธ ัะฒะปะตะฝะธะน ะธ ัะพะพัะฒะตัััะฒัััะตะณะพ ะพะถะธะดะฐะตะผะพะณะพ ััะตัะฑะฐ ะฟะพะปะพะถะตะฝั ะฒ ะพัะฝะพะฒั ะธะทะพะฑัะฐะถะตะฝะธั ะฟัะพัััะฐะฝััะฒะตะฝะฝัั
ะฟะพะปะตะน ััะธั
ัะฒะปะตะฝะธะน ะฒ ัะธััะตะผะต gis
Statistical Analysis of the Number of Days with Hail and Damage to Agricultural Crops from it in Kvemo Kartli (Georgia)
A statistical analysis of data on the number of days with hail in the warm half of the year (from April to October) in 10 settlements of Kvemo Kartli (Georgia) - Bolnisi, Dmanisi, Gardabani, Manglisi, Marneuli, Rustavi, Sadakhlo, Shulaveri, Tetri Tskaro, Tsalka - is presented. The observation period is from 30 (Sadakhlo) to 93 (Bolnisi) years. In addition, an analysis of data on damaged areas of agricultural crops in 34 locations of the specified region in 1982, 1985-1989 is provided (total 56 cases with hail).
In particular, the following results were obtained. The maximum number of days with hail in the warm half-year is observed in Manglisi (16), the minimum - in Rustavi and Sadakhlo (2 each). The maximum average number of days with hail is observed in Manglisi (4.6), the minimum - in Sadakhlo (0.2).
The maximum total area of agricultural crops damaged by hail was noted in Asureti (8.15 kmยฒ), the minimum in Tbisi (0.2 kmยฒ). The maximum area of agricultural crops damaged by hail by 100% was noted in Sadakhlo (6.18 kmยฒ), the minimum - in Tbisi (0.07 kmยฒ). In the whole region, for one incident with hail, the total area of damage to agricultural crops was 1.64 kmยฒ, and for 100% - 0.95 kmยฒ.
The results of this work will be used to construct a visual map of the distribution of hail cases and hail damage of agricultural on the territory of Kvemo Kartli
Catastrophic floods in the vicinity of Tbilisi
แแฆแฌแแ แแแแ แแ. แแขแแแแ แกแ แแ แแแก แจแแแแแแแแแแ แแแแแแแ แแ แแแแแฏแแ แแแ แแแขแแกแขแ แแคแฃแแ แฌแงแแแแแแแ แแแแแ, แแแ แแแแ แแแงแแแแแฃแแ แแแ แแแ แแ แแกแฎแแแ แแแ. แแฆแแแจแแฃแแแ, แ แแ แแแ แแแแก แแแแ แแ แแแแแฌแแแฃแแแ แฃแฎแแ แแแแแฅแแแแก แแแแแแแ แแแแแแก แแแขแแแแ, แแแ แแแแ แฅแแแคแแแแแ แแแแแแแ แแก แซแแแแ แ แแแแ แแแแแแแฃแ แ แชแแแแแแแแ, แแแแแแแแแแก แแแคแแแขแ แแชแแแกแ แแ แแแแแแ แแแ แแแแแแแขแแแแก แแแแขแแ แฃแแแ แแแแแแแก แจแแแชแแ แแแแ. แแแแแแขแแก แแแแแแแฃแ แ แแแแแแแแก แแแ แแแแแจแ แแขแแแกแคแแ แฃแแ แแแแแฅแแแแก แแแขแแแกแแแแแแก แแแกแแแแแแแแ แแแแ แแ แแแแแแฌแแแแก แแแขแแกแขแ แแคแฃแแ แแ แแชแแกแแแแก แแแฎแจแแ แแแแก. แฃแกแแคแ แแฎแแแแแกแ แแ แแแ แแแแก แจแแแชแแ แแแแก แแแแแแ แแฃแชแแแแแแแแ แฉแแขแแ แแแก แจแแกแแแแแแกแ แแ แแแแแชแแฃแแ แฆแแแแกแซแแแแแแ.Catastrophic floods of the river are described. Kura and its tributaries, which caused enormous damage and casualties. It is noted that the increase in damage is caused by an increase in the frequency of high rains, strong anthropogenic changes in the underlying surface, as well as a decrease in the infiltration capacity of the soil and the water permeability of river channels. Under the conditions of global warming, the expected increase in the intensity of precipitation will cause more frequent catastrophic floods. In order to ensure safety and reduce losses, appropriate preventive measures should be taken
Statistical analysis of the number of days with hail during the warm season in Tbilisi in 1891-2021.
แฌแแ แแแแแแแแแแ แแแแแแกแจแ 1891 แฌ. 2021 แฌ. แฌแแแก แแแแ แกแแแแแจแ แกแแขแงแแแแ แแฆแแแ แ แแชแฎแแแก แกแขแแขแแกแขแแแฃแ แ แแแแแแแแก แจแแแแแแแ. แจแแกแฌแแแแแแแ แกแแขแงแแแแ แแฆแแแ แ แแชแฎแแแก แแแแแแแแ แแแแจแแแแแแแแแแก แแ แแแแ แชแแแแแแแแแแ, แแแ แแแแ แกแแขแงแแแแ แแฆแแแ แ แแชแฎแแแก แแชแแชแแแ แกแแจแฃแแแ แแแแจแแแแแแแ 3, 5, 7, 9 แแ 11 แฌแแแก แแแแแแแแแแแจแ. แแฆแแแฉแแแ, แ แแ แงแแแแ แแแแแแแแฃแแ แแแแแแ แแแแแก แ แแแแแ แฃแแ แงแแคแแแแ แแ แแฆแฌแแ แแแแ แฌแ แคแแแ แ แแแ แแกแแแก แแแแขแแแแแแ. แแแแแแ แแฃแแแ, แฌแแแแก แจแแ แแก แแ แกแแขแงแแแแ แแฆแแแ แแแแแแแแ แ แแชแฎแแแก, แแกแแแ แ แแแแ แช แกแแขแงแแแแ แแฆแแแ แ แแชแฎแแแก แแชแแชแแแ แกแแจแฃแแแแแ, แฌแ แคแแแ แแแ แแแแชแแแก แแแแ แแแ แแแแ, แ แแแแกแแช แแแกแแจแฃแแแแแแก แแแแแแแแแ แแแ แแแแ 11 แฌแแแแแ (-0.22-แแแ -0.63-แแแ แจแแกแแแแแแกแแ).The results of a statistical analysis of the number of days with hail during the warm half-year in Tbilisi from 1891 to 2021 are presented. The temporal variability of the measured values of the number of days with hail, as well as the moving averages of the number of hail days for 3, 5, 7, 9, and 11 years, has been studied. It is found that the time course of all the indicated series of observations is negative and is described by the linear regression equation. At the same time, the level of linear correlation between years and the measured number of days with hail, as well as moving averages of the number of hail days, increases as the averaging range increases up to 11 years (from -0.22 to -0.63, respectively)