The economy-wide impacts of the labour intensification of infrastructure expenditure in South Africa

This paper examines the performance of public works in addressing both micro and macroeconomic policy objectives relating to growth, employment and poverty reduction in South Africa. The microeconomic analysis suggests that while participation in a public works programme may contribute to a reduction in the depth of poverty, with improvements in participation in education and nutrition, and have positive psychosocial benefits, the impact of a short-term programme may not be significant in terms of a reduction in headcount poverty or improvements in asset ownership (material or financial). In this case the public works programme income may function essentially as a temporary wage shock, since the insurance function of the transfer is limited by the short duration of the employment period. From a macroeconomic perspective, a social accounting matrix (SAM) is used to estimate the impact of shifting R3 billion expenditure from machine to labour based infrastructure provision over a one year period. The SAM indicates that the impact would be to increase employment by 1%, the income of the poorest quintile by 2% (if employment were exclusively targeted to this group) and GDP by 0.1%. While these are positive outcomes, they are not significant in terms of South Africa's overall economic and employment performance. The conclusion is drawn that from both a macro and microeconomic perspective, there is reason to be cautious about the potential of a national public works programme based on shifting the labour intensity of infrastructure provision, and offering short-term employment opportunities, to have a significant impact on poverty, employment or growth.

A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa

"The paper reports on the construction and testing of a Standard International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) computable general equilibrium model for South Africa. A 1998 social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa is compiled using national accounts information and recently released supply-use tables. By updating to a recent year, and by distinguishing between producers and commodities, this SAM is an improvement on the existing SAM databases for South Africa. Furthermore, this SAM is made consistent with the requirements of IFPRI's standard comparative static computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. This model is then used to simulate the economy-wide impact of a range of hypothetical policy levers, including: increased government spending; the elimination of tariff barriers; and an improvement in total factor productivity. Results indicate that assumptions made regarding the mechanisms of macroeconomic adjustment are important in determining the expected impacts of these policies. Firstly, despite mixed results concerning changes in household income distribution, the impact of expansionary fiscal policy appears to be growth enhancing, with the Keynesian style adjustment mechanism producing the most positive results. Secondly, a complete abolition of import tariffs also appears to generate increases in gross domestic product, with negative and positive consequences for aggregate manufacturing and services respectively. Finally, an increase in total factor productivity is growth enhancing, with the most positive results derived under neoclassical assumptions of the macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms. These simulations are meant to demonstrate the usefulness for economy-wide policy modelling and the paper concludes by highlighting areas of policy analysis that might benefit from more detailed applications with this framework." Author's Abstract.Computable general equilibrium (CGE) ,

Compilation of annual mini SAMs for South Africa 1993-2013 in current and constant prices

We describe the construction of a series of mini Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) for the period 1993-2013 in current and constant prices. A key feature of these SAMs is that they are all in exactly the same format across years as well as in terms of current and constant prices. In order to keep the dataset manageable while offering some level of detail that is meaningful for policy purposes, we adopt a disaggregation of 15 activities and commodities. Current price mini SAMs are converted into constant price mini SAMs using deflators that are derived from official data sources such as Statistics South Africa Quarterly GDP series and the South African Reserve Bank's Quarterly Bulletin

O. Ten Have (1899-1974)

Onko ten Have\u27s contribution to the literature on accounting history is especially important because of the otherwise scant coverage of the accounting development in the Low Countries during the 17th and 18th centuries. Other writings of this little-known Dutch author include a study of the life and work of Stevin and essays on general history of accounting. Ten Have\u27s writings reflect his strong interests in economics, statistics, and related fields. He deserves to be ranked with the leading Continental accounting historians of his time. Language : en

Preliminary Leading Indicators if Employment in New Zealand: Recent Results

The Department o f Labour is currently testing a number of Leading Indicator of Employment (LIoE) series. These indicators are aggregations of different series into a single composite index. The LloE series are designed to give advance warning of turning points in employment. The series have been shown to lead cyclical employment consistently over a long period. Results for recent periods are discussed in more detail as they show deviations from the close historic relationship. This may indicate fundamental shifts in the New Zealand labour market

Droughts and floods in Malawi

Malawi suffers frequent droughts and floods. In an economy that is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector, it is crucial to understand the implications of these extreme climate events. Not only are rural livelihoods affected due to the severe impacts on the agricultural sector, but nonfarm and urban households are also vulnerable given the strong production and price linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy. This study uses a general equilibrium model to estimate the economywide impacts of drought- and flood-related crop production losses. Climate simulations are based on production loss estimates from stochastic drought and flood models. Model results show that the economic losses due to extreme climate events are significant: Malawi loses 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product on average every year due to the combined effects of droughts and floods. This is equivalent to almost US$22 million in 2005 prices. Given their crop choices, it is smaller-scale farmers and those in the flood-prone southern regions of the country who are worst affected. However, urban and nonfarm households are not spared. Food shortages lead to sharp price increases that reduce urban households� disposable incomes. This study makes an important contribution by estimating the economywide impacts of extreme climate events. However, this is only the first step toward designing appropriate agricultural and development strategies that explicitly account for climate uncertainty.agricultural sector, CGE Modeling, Droughts, floods, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), households, Livelihoods, Poverty,

A Decomposition of Growth of the Real Wage Rate for South Africa: 1970 - 2000

This paper examines the potential trade-off between growth in employment and growth in wages. In order to assess the trade-off between employment growth and real wage growth, we make use of a simple decomposition model, following Mazumdar (2000), in which real wage growth is determined by growth in real value added, employment growth, a trend in the wage share of value added and a relative price effect

Forecasting Migration Flows for New Zealand: Arrivals of New and Returning New Zealanders & Departing by Destinations

The purpose of this paper was to outline the methods and to report results of an econometric attempt to forecast New Zealand migration flows. Flows were decomposed into eight components: two relating to arrivals and six components relating to departures by several destinations. Linear time series regression and the Holt­Winters exponential smoothing method were applied to quarterly data from June 1978 to June 2008 or from March 1990 to June 2008. Within­sample mean absolute percentage errors were presented and full­sample estimates from June 1978 to September 2010 or from March 1990 to September 2010 were used to forecast migration flows for each component for the next two years

Preliminary Leading Indicators if Employment in New Zealand: Recent Results

The Department o f Labour is currently testing a number of Leading Indicator of Employment (LIoE) series. These indicators are aggregations of different series into a single composite index. The LloE series are designed to give advance warning of turning points in employment. The series have been shown to lead cyclical employment consistently over a long period. Results for recent periods are discussed in more detail as they show deviations from the close historic relationship. This may indicate fundamental shifts in the New Zealand labour market