Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, and analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population policy interventions in transition economies are inconclusive, while the most common argument states that policies based on material incentives are insufficient to significantly raise the real fertility in a population. The study aims to offer a better insight to the following research question: was Russian demographic policy effective in terms of raising the fertility level in the country or did it merely change the timing of births? The objective of the paper is to measure two effects of the pronatalist policy in Russia: tempo effect and quantum effect. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, I employ the decomposition method to separate tempo and quantum effects in the observed total fertility rate, and I estimate their relative weight in observed fertility changes. The analysis of period fertility indicators confirmed the prevalence of a tempo effect in observed total fertility rate change, but also revealed a quantum effect of the policy measures, although this was much smaller. Policy impact varied by birth order. For second parity, the tempo effect played a more critical role, while for third parity the quantum effect was more important. Another decomposition approach employed to measure the contributions of various factors in the increase of the number of births during the post-reform period showed the quantum effect which was driven by second and third order births. The study provides empirical evidence of the impact of policies on fertility behaviour, expands the existing analysis of pronatalist measures taken in Russia, and contributes to our understanding of the role of tempo and quantum effects in the recent fertility change in Russia

Inequities in Job Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Year Later

In this brief, authors Rogelio Sáenz, Corey Sparks, and Asiya Validova report that in April 2020, after the first two months of significant spread of COVID-19 in the United States, nearly 25 million fewer people had a job. In June 2021, there were still 5.9 million fewer people employed, representing a drop of 3.7 percent in workers since before COVID. Workers of color, women, and those with lower levels of education have consistently had the highest unemployment rates, a trend that persisted through June 2021. The recovery of the workforce has not been equal, with dramatic differences based on race/ethnicity, gender, nativity, and level of education. During COVID, working from home has been a highly segregated opportunity, limited mostly to persons with college degrees. White workers are approximately 1.5 times more likely to be able to work from home than are Blacks and Latinos. While the employment situation has improved noticeably since the economic abyss of the shutdown of the economy in April 2020, the United States is still a long way from job recovery. The authors’ findings have important policy implications for the short- and long-term as, and after, the pandemic recedes. Many people are still without employment due to the loss of jobs that have not yet returned, the obligations they have for child care and elder care, and other situations. Many are on the verge of losing their homes as eviction bans expire. Many families continue to face hunger. There is a major need for the creation of policy to ensure that people have their basic necessities met and that they are able to make necessary adjustments, including job retraining, to begin the process of rebuilding their lives in the coming months and years

Unmet Needs are Associated with Increased Stress and Poor Physical and Mental Health in Early Adulthood

Material hardship, such as not being able to pay bills, negatively affects both physical and mental health. This research brief examines how different types of material hardship (difficulty paying for food, bills, and health care) are associated with self-rated health, depression, sleep problems, and suicidal thoughts among U.S. young adults (ages 24-32)

Some Transaction Cost Effects of Authoritarian Management

This paper studies the transaction cost economizing effects of authoritarian management in organizations and systems subject to higher transaction costs originating from various sources. We analyze the nature, mechanisms, and transaction cost aspects of the authoritarian management style. We argue that the higher the transaction costs of internal organization, the more autocratic the manager is likely to be. We discuss the features of authoritarian managers, illustrating some of our key hypotheses with the example of Henry Ford and his running of the Ford Motor Company. In the context of non-market economies, we relate authoritarian leadership to economic centralism in high transaction cost systems such as East European societies with significant transactional or organizational opportunism, as well as other sources of market failure