Les mauvaises performances du commerce extérieur de la France sont-elles liées à un problème de demande ?

solde du commerce extérieur, compétitivité, exportations comparées France-Allemagne, performances à l’exportation.

Estimating Potential Output with a Production Function for France, Germany and Italy.

This paper discusses the supply conditions for economic growth in terms of potential GDP estimated by the production function approach for France, Germany and Italy for the 1986:2003 period. The aim of this study is twofold: first, we keep a consistent framework as regards national account institutional sectors. Second, after defining Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the so-called productive sector from the Solow residual, we specify it in a general framework for the three countries as a function of a time trend corrected for the effects of the age of equipments and the capacity utilisation rate (CUR). This framework allows to distinguish temporal considerations: in the medium to long term, the variables that could generate short to medium term fluctuations in potential output growth are assumed to be stable at a structural level. This implies modifications of the functional specifications related to the time horizon.Potential growth ; Production function ; Total factor productivity ; Age of equipments.

La situation financière des sociétés non financières en France 1995-2006. Baisse du taux d’épargne et recours accru à l’endettement.

Comme le montrent les statistiques de comptabilité nationale et les comptes d’entreprise, le taux de marge et la rentabilité économique des entreprises ayant stagné, la hausse des dividendes et des impôts pèse sur le taux d’épargne. L’investissement, spécialement dynamique dans le secteur immobilier, est donc financé par un surcroît d’endettement.Comptabilité nationale, comptabilité d’entreprise, endettement, épargne, rentabilité.

MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing of National Accounts (currently at 1995 price), the previous version of the model was simplified, re-specified and re-estimated. The model is essentially used for making macro-economic projections of the French economy over a two-to-three year horizon, which requires an accounting framework as close as possible to the French National Accounts. The main agents are companies, households, general government and the rest of the world. The new version now includes a supply block derived from the explicit optimisation behaviour of companies using a Cobb-Douglas technology under imperfect competition, and a new Wage Setting schedule. Full homogeneity of the nominal side of the model ensures the independence between the nominal equilibrium and the real equilibrium, the latter being only determined in the long run by relative prices. Furthermore, as regards the specification of equations, special attention was paid to the consequences of changes in short-term interest rates.Macro-economic model ; Applied econometrics ; Forecasting ; France

Exports and Property Prices in France: Are They Connected?

We argue that resource reallocation from the exporting to the construction sector triggered by fast rising property prices hindered France to meet world export demand vis-à-vis its products. Our econometric analysis shows that the resource reallocation argument helps explain French export performance between the early 2000s and 2007, unexplained by traditional models. This result is confirmed for a set of OECD countries that experienced a marked decline in their export performance and sustained realestate boom after 2000.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/132997/1/wp985.pd