FDI Technology Spillovers and Wages

This study distinguishes multinational firm (MNE) technology-spillover from learning effects. Whenever learning takes time, the model predicts that foreign investors deduct the economic value of learning from wages of inexperienced workers and add it to experienced ones to prevent them from moving to local competitors. Hence, the national wage bill is unaffected by the presence of MNEs. In contrast to learning, technology spillover effects occur whenever a worker with MNE experience contributes more to local firms’ than to MNEs’ productivity. In this case, experienced MNE workers are hired by indigenous firms and the host country obtains a welfare gain from the presence of MNEs. Implications of this model for the empirical findings of the MNE wage premium and the empirical FDI technology spillover literature are also discussed.FDI, foreign takeover, cross-border M&A, FDI technology spillover

The Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect of FDI in Mezzogiorno and East Germany

The presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) can benefit local economies. In particular, if MNEs are very productive compared to domestic firms, they may promote learning and catch-up of local firms. Such a channel of spillovers from MNEs to local firms is known as the Veblen- Geschenkron effect. Rather than the overall density of MNEs in a region or sector, it is their initial productivity advantage on the local firm to determine the positive effect on domestic productivity growth. We test this hypothesis using firm level data for German and Italian companies during the 90ies and we find evidence of a significant and robust Veblen-Gerschenkron effect.Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect, FDI, Spillovers, Productivity

Are Cardiovascular Diseases Bad for Economic Growth?

We assess the impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality on economic growth, using a dynamic panel growth regression framework taking into account potential endogeneity problems. We start from a worldwide sample of countries for which data was available and detect a non-linearity in the influence of working age CVD mortality rates on growth across the per capita income scale. We then split the sample (according to the resulting income threshold) into low- and middle-income countries on one hand, and high-income countries on the other hand. In the latter sample we find a robust negative contribution of increasing CVD mortality rates on subsequent five-year growth rates. Not too surprisingly, we find no significant impact in the low- and middle-income country sample.cardiovascular disease, growth empirics, dynamic panel data estimator

For Whom is MAI? A theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investments

Why do we observe some LDCs objecting the prospect of a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), although they have been keen to liberalize investment in preferential agreements in recent years? In this paper, we analyse the issue of MAI implementation and assess the welfare consequences of such kind of agreements. In our model, participation to MAI involves a trade-off between less rent extraction from multinational firms (MNEs) and more abundant FDI in‡ows. At equilibrium, either all countries enter MAI, or all countries stay out, or only some of them enter. Coordination problems may induce multiple equilibria: the three types of equilibria may coexist. So, the implementation of MAI may depend not only on structural factors but also on the general ”political climate”. When all countries join MAI, world welfare is maximized because this minimizes the hold-up problem faced by MNEs and stimulates investment. However, in an asymmetric world, welfare gains are not guaranteed for all countries.Foreign Direct Investment, International Agreements, Incomplete

The Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect of FDI in Mezzogiorno and East Germany

The presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) should benefit local economies. In particular if MNEs are particularly productive compared to domestic firms they may promote learning and catch-up of local firms. Such channel of spillovers from MNEs to local firms is known as the Veblen Geschenkron effect. Rather than the overall density of MNE in a region or sector, it is their productivity advantage on the local firm to determine the positive effect on domestic productivity growth.We test this hypothesis using firm level data for German and Italian company for the 90''s. and we find evidence of a significant and robust Veblen-Gerschenkrion effect. The initial total factor productivity advantage of MNEs on local firm acts as a stimulus for productivity growth of local firms in the same region.FDI, Spillovers, Productivity

Foreign Takeovers and Wage Dispersion in Hungary

This study tests FDI technology spillover models with the assumption that learning takes time against wage bargaining models by estimating the wage-premium of a foreign takeover. The technology spillover theory predicts a larger wage growth in firms taken over by foreign investors than in local firms. However, this wage growth should be confined to high-skilled workers or workers with a high level of education. Wage bargaining models also predict such a wage growth. But it should be confined to workers who are organized in trade unions, i.e. workers with low or medium level of education or skill. We apply Hungarian employee-employer matched data from 1992 until 2001, and reject the FDI technology spillover model in favor of the wage bargaining model when differentiating the wage premium by education or occupation, both by applying Mincer wage regressions and the nearest-neighbor matching method.FDI, foreign takeover, cross-border M&A, Mincer wage regression, employee-employer matched data, nearest-neighbor matching

Foreign Taleovers and Wages: Theory and Evidence from Hungary

This study discriminates FDI technology spillover from learning effects. Whenever learning takes time, our model predicts that foreign investors deduct the economic value of learning from wages of inexperienced workers and add it to experienced ones to prevent them from moving to local competitors. Hence, the national wage bill is unaffected by foreign takeovers. In contrast to learning, technology spillover effects occur whenever a worker with MNE experience contributes more to local firms’ than to MNEs’ productivity. In this case, experienced MNE workers are hired by local firms and the host country obtains a welfare gain. We investigate empirically wages, productivity, and worker turnover during the course of foreign takeovers on employee-employer matched data of Hungary and find evidence consistent with learning, but not with FDI technology spillovers.FDI, foreign takeover, cross-border M&A, wage regression, employee-employer matched data, propensity score matching, FDI technology spillover

Divergence – Is it Geography?

This paper tests directly a geography and growth model using regional data for Europe, the US, and Japan during di®erent time periods. We set up a standard geography and growth model with a poverty trap and derive a log- linearized growth equation that corresponds directly to a threshold regression technique in econometrics. In particular, we test whether regions with high population density (centers) grow faster and have a permanently higher per capita income than regions with low population density (peripheries). We find geography driven divergence for US states and European regions after 1980. Population density is superior in explaining divergence to initial income which the most important o±cial EU eligibility criterium for regional aid is built on. Divergence is stronger on smaller regional units (NUTS3) than on larger ones (NUTS2). Thus, the wavelength of agglomeration forces seems to be rather small in Europe. Human capital and R&D are transmission channels of divergence processes. Human capital based poverty trap models are an alternative explanation for regional poverty traps.Keywords: threshold estimation, economic geography, regional income convergence, poverty trap, regime shifts, bootstrap

Offshoring Along the Production Chain

Recent contributions on offshoring often assume that firms can freely split their production process into separate steps which can be ranked according to the cost savings from producing abroad. We replace this assumption by the notion of a technologically determined sequence of production steps. In our model, cost savings from offshoring fluctuate along the production chain, and moving unfinished goods across borders causes transport costs. We show that, in such a setting, firms may refrain from offshoring even if relocating individual steps would be advantageous in terms of offshoring costs, or they may offshore (almost) the entire production chain to save transport costs. Small variations in model parameters may have a substantial impact on offshoring activities.

Vertical FDI Reviseted

This study explores how relative skilled-wage premia affect FDI. Contrary to previous studies based on factor endowment differences, we find strong support for vertical FDI, in the sense that more FDI is conducted in countries where unskilled labor is relatively cheap. In addition, we find that relative skill-premia also affect FDI activities that have previously been associated with horizontal FDI, i.e. local affiliate sales. Consequently, the potential effects of changes in the relative wage costs on international production reallocation within MNEs are large. In fact, if not for the 8% rise in the US skilled wage premium relative to the average host country between 1986-1994, annual US affiliate sales abroad in relation to US GDP would have been half a percentage point higher.multinational firms, wage differentials