An Evaluation of OBERS Projections of Texas Agricultural Production in 1980, 2000 and 2020

It seems possible, perhaps even likely, that some errors of fact and/or judgment may have been made in the process of allocation of national requirements among states. There may be instances where data are inadequate for the correct expression of a region's or state's productive capacity with respect to a commodity. Perhaps the history of production is too short; maybe droughts, freezes or excess moisture situations have biased the data; perhaps there are peculiar growth characteristics of a crop that make yields erratic. There might also be very recent or prospective technological developments that would significantly affect yields of a crop in a state or region. Such developments would change the region's competitive position, but this would not show up in the history of crop production. Land and water developments affecting the productivity of an area, the crops that can be grown and the yields that can be realized, are not revealed in historic data. With changing demands for some foods and fibers such developments may be feasible, may be planned for the near future or even underway at the present time. In this project we have searched for errors of fact and judgment as they have affected projections of Texas' shares of national food and fiber requirements. We have examined the data used in the determination of trends and the projections of yield and output. We have inquired about technology in agriculture that could make Texas producers more competitive. We have considered the prospects for land and water developments that would make these resources more productive. We have tried to discover and evaluate those factors and circumstances that are pertinent to the competitive positions of Texas producers of foods and fibers and which have not been revealed in the projection of trends

Institutional Factors Influencing Water Development in Texas

The development and use of land and water resources has been and will continue to be significantly affected by institutions--legal, cultural, economic, political and religious. Institutions are the organizing and directing mechanisms by which we achieve an organization of resources in productive activities which satisfy human needs. They are essential to individual and collective activity and thus must be understood and managed to achieve our purposes. In this project, attention has been given to institutions which are important to (1) the implementation of the Texas Water Plan, and (2) the efficient use of water resources in irrigation in the lower Rio Grande Valley. Numerous political and economic institutions must be changed or newly developed to provide for (1) the interbasin diversions proposed by the Texas Water Plan, (2) the creation and management of transfer systems and (3) distribution of water within importing areas and fulfillment of financial obligations. These will be expressed by individuals and groups various points of view relative to water developments and the administration of water supplies. Self interests will be forcefully expressed. Competing users of water will make themselves heard. Institutional arrangements to resolve conflicts, to provide for development of water systems and to insure efficient use of water will be critical to the success of the Plan. Numerous suggestions for institutional changes are made in papers and reports of the research of this project relative to these issues. They cannot be reported in this abstract. Institutions of particular importance to efficient distribution and use of water in irrigation in the lower Rio Grande Valley are the irrigation districts and their policies and operations plus water rights. While operations of districts could significantly be influenced by consolidation of districts, rehabilitation, and changed managerial policies, there are important barriers to such change. Present low costs of water in districts and the desire to maintain control of irrigation systems policies and procedures in local districts may not allow change to take place. Negotiable water rights are a possibility, and exchange of rights or annual allocations would improve efficiency of water use. District members need to be made aware of consequences of such a change in this institution. An informational program relative to water management would be helpful

Institutional Factors Influencing Water Development in Texas

The development and use of land and water resources has been and will continue to be significantly affected by institutions--legal, cultural, economic, political and religious. Institutions are the organizing and directing mechanisms by which we achieve an organization of resources in productive activities which satisfy human needs. They are essential to individual and collective activity and thus must be understood and managed to achieve our purposes. In this project, attention has been given to institutions which are important to (1) the implementation of the Texas Water Plan, and (2) the efficient use of water resources in irrigation in the lower Rio Grande Valley. Numerous political and economic institutions must be changed or newly developed to provide for (1) the interbasin diversions proposed by the Texas Water Plan, (2) the creation and management of transfer systems and (3) distribution of water within importing areas and fulfillment of financial obligations. These will be expressed by individuals and groups various points of view relative to water developments and the administration of water supplies. Self interests will be forcefully expressed. Competing users of water will make themselves heard. Institutional arrangements to resolve conflicts, to provide for development of water systems and to insure efficient use of water will be critical to the success of the Plan. Numerous suggestions for institutional changes are made in papers and reports of the research of this project relative to these issues. They cannot be reported in this abstract. Institutions of particular importance to efficient distribution and use of water in irrigation in the lower Rio Grande Valley are the irrigation districts and their policies and operations plus water rights. While operations of districts could significantly be influenced by consolidation of districts, rehabilitation, and changed managerial policies, there are important barriers to such change. Present low costs of water in districts and the desire to maintain control of irrigation systems policies and procedures in local districts may not allow change to take place. Negotiable water rights are a possibility, and exchange of rights or annual allocations would improve efficiency of water use. District members need to be made aware of consequences of such a change in this institution. An informational program relative to water management would be helpful

The Texas Water Plan and its Institutional Problems

An expansion of tile supply of water and greater efficiency in its use are necessary for the future economic development of the state of Texas. Imported water, supplemental to that available in the state, is an important part of development plans as outlined in the Texas Water Plan, a proposal of the Texas Water Development Board. Implementing the Board's plan to reallocate water supplies and improve the efficiency of land and water use will raise many serious problems. Solutions will be required in a wide array of institutional problems that will extend to such areas as the interstate diversion and interbasin transfers of water, doctrines or water rights and legislated water use-priorities, acreage restrictions established in federal reclamation law, comingling public and private water, construction financing, revenue production through a system of taxation and water sales, and the organizing of IICW institutions for governing the entire System. As the need for master or other special districts is faced, decisions will be required as -to whether to organize for centralized control from the state level or with emphasis on control by the local area. Reorganizing institutions, or their formalized cooperation, will be necessary to permit local control, yet be able to induce the desired efficiency in resource use that will make the Texas Water System succeed. Failure to achieve efficiencv in the functioning of institutions may result in an institutional overhead so high as to prohibit realization of the anticipated System benefits

Input-Output as a Method of Evaluahon of the Economic Impact of Water Resources Development

In this report the results of a study of the use of input-output analysis to evaluate the economic impact of water resources development are presented. Blackburn Crossing reservoir on the Upper Neches river was the subject development) and the Leontief system of input-output accounts is the basic tool of the analysis. In previous research, unrelated to water resources development, Carter and Martin developed the idea of using a matrix of primary resource coefficients to determine resource requirements necessary to sustain a given level of final demand and with it, total economic output.. By specifying the relationship between resource requirements and output, total resource requirements can be computed given either final demand or total output. In this study the possibility of inverting the process and determining final demand or total output, given the level of primary resources, was investigated. Data for the period 1952 were assembled to build the basic inputoutput model of the economic activity, of the watershed. The functional relationship of water as a resource and total output was then determined and the model was employed to forecast the impact on the watershed of an increase in the supply of water. A check on the forecast was provided by data assembled for the 1958 period which were descriptive of total output following an enlargement of Blackburn Crossing reservoir which yielded increased water supplies. The results of the forecasting activity were sufficient to conclude that the analytical tool employed along with the water use-output relationship is useful in estimating impact of water developments. Problems encountered can be resolved so that the accuracy of the technique is acceptable

An Economic Evaluation of a Water-Based Urban Tourist Attraction in San Antonio, Texas

The importance of an economic study of the Paseo del Rio (a highly developed portion of the San Antonio River) has greatly increased with the proposal of many extensions, each of which will involve large investment. That developmental plan which has been in the forefront involves an extension of the Paseo del Rio, in the central business district, north to Brackenridge Park and south to the city limit. An economic study of the existing, developed area would determine the estimated impact of it on commercial enterprises, and produce information relative to the possible effects of future extensions and associated developments. The purpose of this study is to determine the economic effect of the Paseo del Rio on commercial enterprises and activities as it affects tourism and recreation in the central city. Based on the assumption that the economic effects of the developed river area arise from the expenditures of the users, and that beneficiaries are the businesses surrounding the area, three surveys have been conducted. One concerned users of the developed river area. It served to identify their socioeconomic characteristics and other relevant factors which might be important to their knowledge and use of the river. The second was a survey Of the businesses in the central business district to identify their economic characteristics, their relationship to the Paseo del Rio, and the proportions of gross receipts of these businesses attributable to the developed river area. A third survey served to identify characteristics of residents of San Antonio, their knowledge of the Paseo del Rio and their use of it for various purposes. Statistical analyses indicated that the income of the user, the size of the user group, and the distance traveled by the user were all positively associated with the level of his expenditures. The two user activities, shopping and eating, were associated with high levels of expenditures. Other user characteristics which resulted in high levels of expenditures were the purchase of food and recreational goods. The businesses in the river area were stratified according to distance from the Paseo del Rio to reduce variation. This stratification was extremely significant, with the proportion of gross receipts attributable to the developed river area decreasing as distance from the river increased. Businesses selling the goods and services of arts and crafts, entertainment and lodging attributed high proportions of their gross receipts to the Paseo del Rio. The types of customers which contributed large amounts of gross receipts to the area were tourists and local residents (businesses and households). The users of the area are not only tourists, but also San Antonio residents and persons from nearby cities. Thus, an extension of the Paseo del Rio would be significant not only to increased tourism but also to added recreational use of the river by the residents of the city. Reaction to the proposed extension was favorable both from the standpoint of the businesses in the surrounding area and from the users of the Paseo del Rio

Evaluation of Resource Use and Economic Effects Due to Irrigation Water Availiability in Texas

The State of Texas has been actively developing a State Water Plan which is to become a basic guide for water development in Texas through the year 2020. The availability of water to agriculture in the future and its effect on the Texas economy is of utmost importance to Texans. Potential agricultural resource requirements are dependent on numerous and diverse factors. Some of these factors are known and measurable such as the water needs of growing plants. Other factors are unknown and remain subject to conjecture. Future agricultural price and production control programs are unknown and can only be hypothesized. These factors and others are important to water requirements of agriculture and must be dealt with by measurement or estimation. This research was initiated to develop meaningful projections of agricultural water requirements which would be useful in planning for water resource development. Five different models of agricultural resource requirements and production were analyzed. Each model contains: (1) restrictions on production and marketing of products, (2) assumptions relative to resource availability and use, and (3) estimates of output with the specified use of resources. These models illustrate to the water resource planner the potential of Texas agriculture to produce food and fiber as well as the effects of various restrictions on production. These restrictions include some factors which cannot be controlled, such as market limitations. The models include various assumptions concerning water supply for agriculture and the effects of these assumptions are evident in the results of the analysis. The results of these models present to the water resource planner the effect on Texas agriculture of alternative allocations of water to agriculture. The procedures and computer programs developed can evaluate for the planner an infinite number of alternatives. Comparison of alternative availability of water to agriculture provides a basis for evaluation of the economic benefit from the allocation of water to agriculture

A Study of the Effects of Institutions on the Distribution and use of Water for Irrigation in the Lower Rio Grande Basin

Water users in the Lower Rio Grande Basin of Texas have depended on the flow of the Rio Grande to supply water for agricultural as well as municipal and industrial purposes. Although the area is a major agricultural production region, it faces continuing problems associated with use of irrigation water from the Rio Grande. Periodic water shortages threaten to limit the potential growth and economic well-being of the area. Inefficient use of available water supplies as a result of inadequate and/or antiquated distribution facilities and inefficient management of water on farms contributes to the depletion of available water supplies for irrigation and other uses. The objectives of this study were: (1) to study the effects of water rights as allocative devices for water; to determine the impact on cropping patterns and water use efficiency of a change which would make rights negotiable, and (2) to study the influence of Water Control and Improvement Districts on the distribution and use of water; to determine whether the ways in which these districts are organized and operated may cause them to act as facilitating or obstructing elements in the efficient development and use of water resources in the Valley. To meet the first objective, parametric linear programming was used to analyze the impact of negotiable water rights on cropping patterns and enterprise combinations. If the institution of water rights were changed so as to make annual allotments negotiable, market forces could be expected to move the resource into uses in which it has a higher value. Water price was varied from $9.60 per acre foot to$96.00 per acre foot. At a price of $9.60, which is approximately the present cost of irrigation water delivered at the farm gate, producers could profitably use almost 2,000,000 acre feet of water per year. At this price, 83 percent of the irrigable lands and 77 percent of the water used in the Valley would be devoted to the production of cotton and grain sorghum. At a water price of$18.65 per acre foot or higher, grain sorghum production in the Valley reverts dryland and water use for irrigation drops to 1,363,300 acre feet per year. At a price of $32.45 or above, the land devoted to cotton would be switched to dryland grain sorghum production and water use would decline to 407,900 acre feet annually. The use of parametric programming with variable water pricing allowed the derivation of a value-in-use or "conditional demand" curve for water. To meet the second objective of the study, data on the Valley Water Control and Improvement Districts were analyzed using multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable was delivery cost per acre irrigated. Size of district, acre feet pumped per acre irrigated, and percent of operating revenues derived from water deliveries were the independent variables. It was found that the optimum size district, from a least-cost standpoint, was 42,355 acres. However, other institutional problems associated with District policy and organization would seem to more than offset cost advantages of reorganization and consolidation. Therefore, it does not seem likely that local water users would seek changes in the organizational structure of districts simply to take advantage of economies of size associated with consolidation. iii Rehabilitation of district facilities was analyzed using data from the parametric programming model for five levels of development. It was found that rehabilitation of district facilities is economically feasible, at least to the present level of water use in the Valley

A Study of Institutional Factors Affecting Water Resource Development in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, Texas

Despite numerous studies of and plans for the use of land and water resources of the lower Rio Grande Valley for efficient agricultural production, development has lagged and the production potential has not been realized. Institutional factors--political, legal, economic and cultural--have often been obstacles to the construction of needed water facilities and good management of lands in irrigation. Change in some of these institutions and the introduction of new, more appropriate institutional arrangements can facilitate land and water development and use so that greater efficiency in productive operations is achieved. A very important legal institution is the water right, yet there has existed considerable confusion about rights in the Valley Water rights need to be clarified as to origin, extent and legality. Certainty in this right is necessary to optimum levels of development of irrigation. This can be accomplished by completion of court action which has proceeded through this decade. To achieve efficiency in water use, rights should be made negotiable. Some trading or leasing of rights is practiced now on an informal basis. A change or clarification of water law to permit purchase and sale of rights would facilitate exchange so that water would be used in higher value uses. To achieve better management of water in irrigation, it is recommended that rehabilitation of irrigation systems be continued on an accelerated basis. This would include reconstruction of many canals and ditches to include concrete linings, construction of storage areas off the river where feasible, and certainly installation of water meters at points of delivery to users. To provide for more orderly and efficient planning for and further development of irrigation systems, it is recommended that some consolidation of special districts be accomplished. It seems possible that a single master district might be a logical goal for the many irrigation districts. Drainage problems could be attacked by a single or small number of irrigation districts that would take on this responsibility, or one or more special drainage districts could be organized for this purpose. These and other recommendations are the product of this study

An Evaluation of OBERS Projections of Texas Agricultural Production in 1980, 2000 and 2020

It seems possible, perhaps even likely, that some errors of fact and/or judgment may have been made in the process of allocation of national requirements among states. There may be instances where data are inadequate for the correct expression of a region's or state's productive capacity with respect to a commodity. Perhaps the history of production is too short; maybe droughts, freezes or excess moisture situations have biased the data; perhaps there are peculiar growth characteristics of a crop that make yields erratic. There might also be very recent or prospective technological developments that would significantly affect yields of a crop in a state or region. Such developments would change the region's competitive position, but this would not show up in the history of crop production. Land and water developments affecting the productivity of an area, the crops that can be grown and the yields that can be realized, are not revealed in historic data. With changing demands for some foods and fibers such developments may be feasible, may be planned for the near future or even underway at the present time. In this project we have searched for errors of fact and judgment as they have affected projections of Texas' shares of national food and fiber requirements. We have examined the data used in the determination of trends and the projections of yield and output. We have inquired about technology in agriculture that could make Texas producers more competitive. We have considered the prospects for land and water developments that would make these resources more productive. We have tried to discover and evaluate those factors and circumstances that are pertinent to the competitive positions of Texas producers of foods and fibers and which have not been revealed in the projection of trends