Joy leads to Overconfidence, and a Simple Remedy

Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real- life domains, and it often has far-reaching consequences. Here, we demonstrate a causal mechanism that leads to overconfidence and show a simple, effective remedy for it in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We show that joy induces overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) is unrelated to the judgment task and if participants were not made specifically aware of our mood manipulation. In contrast, we observed well- calibrated judgments among participants in a control group who were in their resting mood. Furthermore, we found well-calibrated judgments am

In the Mood for Risk? A Random-Assignment Experiment Addressing the Effects of Moods on Risk Preferences

Recent discussions in decision sciences and behavioral economics stress the potential impact of affect on decision outcomes. In the present study, we conducted random-assignment experiments (N = 253) to investigate whether affect can cause temporary fluctuations in risk preferences. In particular, we employed film clips to vary the valence (positive / negative) and arousal level (low / high) of the affective states of student participants; following this, we elicited and observed risk preferences by asking the participants to make choi

Sadder but wiser: The Effects of Affective States and Weather on Ambiguity Attitudes

__Abstract__ Many important decisions are made without precise information about the probabilities of the outcomes. In such situations, individual ambiguity attitudes infl

Joy leads to overconfidence, and a simple countermeasure

Overconfidence has been identified as a source of suboptimal decision making in many real-life domains, with often far-reaching consequences. This study identifies a mechanism that can cause overconfidence and demonstrates a simple, effective countermeasure in an incentive-compatible experimental study. We observed that joy induced overconfidence if the reason for joy (an unexpected gift) was u

MODELLING AND ANALYSIS OF CHATTER MITIGATION STRATEGIES IN MILLING

Machining stability plays a major role in improving machine tool performance and product quality. Uncontrolled chatter phenomenon causes too many defects and problems in manufacturing industry such as increased surface roughness, tool wear and even machine breakdown. In this subject area, great effort has been focused on developing different mechanisms and techniques in an attempt to reduce and control the machining vibrations. Spindle speed variation is one of the common approaches that has received attention recently. Non-uniform tool geometry is an alternative method that could be used for regenerative chatter suppression. Basically these two methods focus on breaking up the regeneration of surface waves. A phenomenon known a process damping also has a vital effect on the stability improvement, particularly at low cutting speeds. Process damping is believed to be influenced by the interference of the relief face of the cutting tool with the waveform traced on the arc surface. An alternative explanation for process damping is known with the short regenerative effect. This concept is based on the distribution of forces along the tool flank face. In the present research, a new approach based upon energy analysis is developed for more detailed interpretation of the stability of these different chatter mitigation mechanisms. Moreover, a comprehensive time domain model is developed to allow multiple effects such as variable spindle speed, process damping, loss of contact, variable helix tool and energy to be considered. Meanwhile performance of this milling model has been further benchmarked along with these effects to enable the numerical prediction to be computed more quickly with an acceptable numerical accuracy

Sadder but wiser : the effects of emotional states on ambiguity attitudes

“Many important decisions are made without precise information about the probabilities of the outcomes. In such situations, individual ambiguity attitudes influence decision making. The present study identifies emotions as a transient cause of ambiguity attitudes. We conducted two random-assignment, incentive-compatible laboratory experiments, varying subjects’ emotional states. We find that sadness induces choices that are closer to ambiguity-neutral attitudes compared with the joy, fear, and control groups, where decision makers deviate more from payoff-maximizing behavior.

Emotions, cognitions and the individual-opportunity nexus:interactive paper

The question why some individuals and not others exploit entrepreneurial opportunities is still not answered. There is consensus that the nature of opportunity plays a key part in the pre-entrepreneurial decision-making process (e. g. Lang-von Wins 2004, Phan et al. 2002) which contains the recognition, the evaluation and the exploitation of an entrepreneurial opportunity (Shane and Venkataraman 2000). Some researchers (e. g. Busenitz and Lau 1996, Mitchell et al. 2000) argue that the subjective, mental processes in individuals play a crucial role in the pre-entrepreneurial process and for the decision to exploit an opportunity. Therefore, this study seeks to explore individuals’ different perceptions of entrepreneurial opportunities and the role of cognitive appraisals and affective states in this perception-shaping process in order to fill the gap of the ‘Individual-Opportunity-Nexus’ (Shane 2003)

Emotional paths leading to opportunity desirability and feasibility beliefs through controllability

\u3cp\u3eExtant studies promote opportunity belief as an antecedent of entrepreneurial action. However, we do not sufficiently understand how beliefs about the desirability and feasibility of an entrepreneurial opportunity are formed. We argue that desirability and feasibility are related but distinct micro-foundations of entrepreneurial action formed through different cognitive-emotional mechanisms. Drawing on the appraisal tendency framework, we investigate the indirect effects of three basic emotions (anger, fear and happiness) on desirability and feasibility through the appraisal tendency of controllability. In an experimental study (N = 191), we find evidence for the distinctiveness and interconnectedness of desirability and feasibility beliefs. In addition, our findings show that desirability can be predicted by emotions through controllability, but we cannot predict feasibility through the same appraisal process. Our study seeks insights concerning how desirability and feasibility beliefs regarding an entrepreneurial opportunity are distinctively formed based on the inner cognitive and emotional processes of individuals.\u3c/p\u3

A neuroeconomic perspective on strategic decision-making

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