On Multiperiod Policy Implementation Model

It is intended here to investigate the basic structures and functions of the so-called "reputation" regime of macroeconomic policy-making by making use of a simple macro-model as composed of aggregate Lucas-type supply and ordinary demand functions in a familiar static framework of two targets and one policy instrument. The regime is conceived as one of many possible compromises between commitment and discretion, possible in a multi-period setting of the intrinsically static model, and the private sector's way of rational expectations is shown to be decisive in what reputation regime is concretely effected as a substitute for unrealistic commitment

An Overture to the Study of Policy Implementation Model

The paper investigates such basic policy-making regimes as simple rules, commitments and discretion, and some compromises on them such as rules with escape clauses and so on in a familiar static framework of two targets and one policy instrument, with an intention of making it as an overture to the study of Ragnar Frisch's theory of economic policy, especially his policy implelmentation model as the qualitative policy model

On Mimicking as a Sequential Policy Implementation

The basic structure and functions of the so-called "mimicking" regime of macroeconomic policy-making are investigated here by using a simple one-instrument (money supply)-and-two-targets (inflation and employment) policy model composed of aggregate Lucas-type supply and ordinary demand functions in such a framework of 2-period sequential equilibrium analysis as Persson and Tabellini used, with a seemingly minor but consequently important change in one of the assumptions Persson and Tabellini posited. The assumption is the one concerned with the tough-type government's trade-off between the two targets, and the change is shown to result in a more economically interpretable criterion by which the weak-type can choose between pooling equilibrium with mimicking and separating one without it

On Seasonality in the East Seto Area BSI Series

This paper analyzes the nature of seasonality in quarterly observations for the East Seto Area BSI series. We begin with quantitative mesures of seasonality. Most series have at least 30 percent of their non-trend variation mopped up by seasonal dummy variables alone. We turn to tests of the order of integration. Unit root tests are applied to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic nonstationality. 36 series are found to have a seasonal unit root only and the remaining series are almost stationary. This implies that the the ΔΔ(4) transform, frequently implicitly embodied in any seasonal adjustment program, leads to overdifferencing