COVID-19 mortality analysis from soft-data multivariate curve regression and machine learning

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in the framework of trigonometric regression. While, in our subsequent spatial residual correlation analysis, maximization of the likelihood allows us to compute the posterior mode in a Bayesian multivariate time series soft-data framework. The presented approach is applied to the analysis of COVID-19 mortality in the first wave affecting the Spanish Communities, since March, 8, 2020 until May, 13, 2020. An empirical comparative study with Machine Learning (ML) regression, based on random k-fold cross-validation, and bootstrapping confidence interval and probability density estimation, is carried out. This empirical analysis also investigates the performance of ML regression models in a hard- and soft- data frameworks. The results could be extrapolated to other counts, countries, and posterior COVID-19 waves.Comment: This paper is currently submitte

Multivariate manifold-valued curve regression in time

Fr\'echet global regression is extended to the context of bivariate curve stochastic processes with values in a Riemannian manifold. The proposed regression predictor arises as a reformulation of the standard least-squares parametric linear predictor in terms of a weighted Fr\'echet functional mean. Specifically, in our context, in this reformulation, the Euclidean distance is replaced by the integrated quadratic geodesic distance. The regression predictor is then obtained from the weighted Fr\'echet curve mean, lying in the time-varying geodesic submanifold, generated by the regressor process components involved in the time correlation range. The regularized Fr\'echet weights are computed in the time-varying tangent spaces. The uniform weak-consistency of the regression predictor is proved. Model selection is also addressed. A simulation study is undertaken to illustrate the performance of the spherical curve variable selection algorithm proposed in a multivariate framework.Comment: 24 pages, 8 Figure

He says, she says: ecosystem services and gender among indigenous communities in the Colombian Amazon

Although it has been hypothesized that men and women vary in the way they value ecosystem services, research on ecosystem services rarely incorporates a gender dimension. We conducted research with nine indigenous communities in the Colombian Amazon to understand which ecosystem services men and women perceive as most important for their wellbeing and to rank them according to locally-defined criteria of importance. Participants identified a total of 26 ecosystem services and 20 different ranking criteria. Ecosystem services such as land for agricultural fields (a supporting service), and provision of fish and medicinal plants were equally important for both men and women. Wild fruits and resources to make handicrafts were more frequently mentioned by women, whereas timber, materials for making tools and coca leaves were more frequently mentioned by men. There were also differences in the criteria used to value ecosystem services, with 11 criteria mentioned by both men and women, five mentioned exclusively by women and another four only by men. Our results suggest that taking gender differences into account in ecosystem services assessments may result in the prioritization of different services in conservation and sustainable development programs, and may lead to different outcomes for ecosystem service provision and local livelihoods.</p

Azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of the surface detector signals of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The azimuthal asymmetry in the risetime of signals in Auger surface detector stations is a source of information on shower development. The azimuthal asymmetry is due to a combination of the longitudinal evolution of the shower and geometrical effects related to the angles of incidence of the particles into the detectors. The magnitude of the effect depends upon the zenith angle and state of development of the shower and thus provides a novel observable, $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$, sensitive to the mass composition of cosmic rays above $3 \times 10^{18}$ eV. By comparing measurements with predictions from shower simulations, we find for both of our adopted models of hadronic physics (QGSJETII-04 and EPOS-LHC) an indication that the mean cosmic-ray mass increases slowly with energy, as has been inferred from other studies. However, the mass estimates are dependent on the shower model and on the range of distance from the shower core selected. Thus the method has uncovered further deficiencies in our understanding of shower modelling that must be resolved before the mass composition can be inferred from $(\sec \theta)_\mathrm{max}$.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

A Molecular Characterization of the Allelic Expression of the BRCA1 Founder Δ9–12 Pathogenic Variant and Its Potential Clinical Relevance in Hereditary Cancer:International Journal of Molecular Sciences

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome is a genetic condition that increases the risk of breast cancer by 80% and that of ovarian cancer by 40%. The most common pathogenic variants (PVs) causing HBOC occur in the BRCA1 gene, with more than 3850 reported mutations in the gene sequence. The prevalence of specific PVs in BRCA1 has increased across populations due to the effect of founder mutations. Therefore, when a founder mutation is identified, it becomes key to improving cancer risk characterization and effective screening protocols. The only founder mutation described in the Mexican population is the deletion of exons 9 to 12 of BRCA1 (BRCA1Δ9–12), and its description focuses on the gene sequence, but no transcription profiles have been generated for individuals who carry this gene. In this study, we describe the transcription profiles of cancer patients and healthy individuals who were heterozygous for PV BRCA1Δ9–12 by analyzing the differential expression of both alleles compared with the homozygous BRCA1 control group using RT–qPCR, and we describe the isoforms produced by the BRCA1 wild-type and BRCA1Δ9–12 alleles using nanopore long-sequencing. Using the Kruskal–Wallis test, our results showed a similar transcript expression of the wild-type allele between the healthy heterozygous group and the homozygous BRCA1 control group. An association between the recurrence and increased expression of both alleles in HBOC patients was also observed. An analysis of the sequences indicated four wild-type isoforms with diagnostic potential for discerning individuals who carry the PV BRCA1Δ9–12 and identifying which of them has developed cancer

A search for point sources of EeV photons

Measurements of air showers made using the hybrid technique developed with the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory allow a sensitive search for point sources of EeV photons anywhere in the exposed sky. A multivariate analysis reduces the background of hadronic cosmic rays. The search is sensitive to a declination band from -85{\deg} to +20{\deg}, in an energy range from 10^17.3 eV to 10^18.5 eV. No photon point source has been detected. An upper limit on the photon flux has been derived for every direction. The mean value of the energy flux limit that results from this, assuming a photon spectral index of -2, is 0.06 eV cm^-2 s^-1, and no celestial direction exceeds 0.25 eV cm^-2 s^-1. These upper limits constrain scenarios in which EeV cosmic ray protons are emitted by non-transient sources in the Galaxy.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa