Employment and productivity growth in service and manufacturing sectors in France, Germany and the US

The growth patterns of service sectors across France, Germany, and the US exhibit striking differences. This can explain most of the well-known differences in aggregate growth rates of labour productivity and employment across these countries. Having confirmed this observation by a shift-share analysis of key indicators of growth, such as employment, labour productivity and capital, the paper analyses service sector growth in detail. It argues that a careful consideration of the forces of long-run growth may help to better explain differences in employment and productivity growth, in particular if combined with the standard approach, institutional peculiarities of labour markets. In this regard, it first presents new estimates of capital's contribution to labour productivity growth, which take into account skill-biased technological change. Second, it discusses evidence of catch-up growth in European service sectors relative to the US, and how this may affect employment growth in the presence of labour market rigidities. JEL Classification: O3, O5

Do initial conditions persist between firms? : an analysis of firm-entry cohort effects and job losers using matched employer-employee data

"Influential studies have suggested that initial conditions can have persistent effects on workers' careers within firms. It is a longstanding question among economists whether such lasting wage differentials among firms and industries are due to persistent deviations of wages from workers' skills due to contracting and market frictions, or whether they arise from permanent differences among workers' skills. However, there is currently little representative evidence on firm-entry cohort effects and few explicit tests of alternative explanations. We use information on the universe of workers from a large German manufacturing sector from matched employer- employee records to show that firm-entry cohort effects are a pervasive phenomenon for the firms we study. The cohort effects we estimate are highly heterogeneous across firms and slowly fade over time. We also find that wage premiums on the past job are lost at job displacement, and that initial positive effects on wage levels at the new job fades over time. This suggests that at least part of firm-entry cohort effects arise from transitory rents, and that initial effects from previous wages fade as workers' search for better jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Kohortenanalyse, Automobilindustrie, Berufseinmündung - Auswirkungen, Berufsverlauf, Entlassungen, zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität, Arbeitskräftemobilität, Lohnentwicklung, IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatz

Mortality, Mass-Layoffs, and Career Outcomes: An Analysis using Administrative Data

This paper uses administrative data on quarterly employment and earnings matched to death records to estimate the effects of job displacement on mortality. We find that job displacement leads to a 15-20% increase in death rates during the following 20 years. If such increases were sustained beyond this period, they would imply a loss in life expectancy of about 1.5 years for a worker displaced at age 40. These results are robust to extensive controls for sorting and selection, and are consistent with estimates of the effects of job loss on mortality pooling displaced workers and stayers that are not affected by selective job displacement. To examine the channels through which mass layoffs raise mortality, we exploit the panel nature of our data -- covering over 15 years of earnings -- to analyze the correlation of long-run career outcomes, such as the mean and standard deviation of earnings, with mortality at the individual and group level, something not possible with typical data sets. Our findings suggest that factors correlated with a decrease in mean earnings and a rise in standard deviation of earnings have the potential to explain an important fraction of the effect of a job displacement on mortality.

Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation

Education, Schooling

Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling In Germany: Evidence and Interpretation

We estimate the impact of compulsory schooling on earnings using the changes in compulsory schooling laws for secondary schools in West German states during the period from 1948 to 1970. While our research design is very similar to studies for various other countries, we find very different estimates of the returns. Most estimates in the literature indicate returns in the range of 10 to 15 percent. We find no return to compulsory schooling in Germany in terms of higher wages. We investigate whether this is due to labor market institutions or the existence of the apprenticeship training system in Germany, but find no evidence for these explanations. We conjecture that the result might be due to the fact that the basic skills most relevant for the labor market are learned earlier in Germany than in other countries.

The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates

The standard neo-classical model of wage setting predicts short-term effects of temporary labor market shocks on careers and low costs of recessions for both more and less advantaged workers. In contrast, a vast range of alternative career models based on frictions in the labor market suggests that labor market shocks can have persistent effects on the entire earnings profile. This paper analyzes the long-term effects of graduating in a recession on earnings, job mobility, and employer characteristics for a large sample of Canadian college graduates with different predicted earnings using matched university-employer-employee data from 1982 to 1999, and uses its results to assess the importance of alternative career models. We find that young graduates entering the labor market in a recession suffer significant initial earnings losses that eventually fade, but after 8 to 10 years. We also document substantial heterogeneity in the costs of recessions and important effects on job mobility and employer characteristics, but small effects on time worked. These adjustment patterns are neither consistent with a neo-classical spot market nor a complete scarring effect, but could be explained by a combination of time intensive search for better employers and long-term wage contracting. All results are robust to an extensive sensitivity analysis including controls for correlated business cycle shocks after labor market entry, endogenous timing of graduation, permanent cohort differences, and selective labor force participation.

The Short- and Long-Term Career Effects of Graduating in a Recession: Hysteresis and Heterogeneity in the Market for College Graduates

This paper analyzes the long-term effects of graduating in a recession on earnings, job mobility, and employer characteristics for a large sample of Canadian college graduates using matched university-employer-employee data from 1982 to 1999. The results are used to assess the role of job mobility and firm quality in the propagation of shocks for different groups in the labor market. We find that young graduates entering the labor market in a recession suffer significant initial earnings losses that, on average, eventually fade after 8 to 10 years. Labor market conditions at graduation affect firm quality and job mobility, which can account for 40-50% of losses and catch-up in our sample. We also document that higher skilled graduates suffer less from entry in a recession because they switch to better firms quickly. Lower skilled graduates are permanently affected by being down ranked to low-wage firms. These adjustment patterns are consistent with differential choices of intensity of search for better employers arising from comparative advantage and time-increasing search costs. All results are robust to an extensive sensitivity analysis including controls for correlated business cycle shocks after labor market entry, endogenous timing of graduation, permanent cohort differences, and selective labor force participation.job search, hysteresis, college graduates, cost of recessions

Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss

We develop new evidence on the cumulative earnings losses associated with job displacement, drawing on longitudinal Social Security records for U.S. workers from 1974 to 2008. In present value terms, men lose an average of 1.4 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced in mass-layoff events that occur when the national unemployment rate is below 6 percent. They lose a staggering 2.8 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced when the unemployment rate exceeds 8 percent. These results reflect discounting at a 5% annual rate over 20 years after displacement. We also document large cyclical movements in the incidence of job loss and job displacement and present evidence on how worker anxieties about job loss, wage cuts and job opportunities respond to contemporaneous economic conditions. Finally, we confront leading models of unemployment fluctuations with evidence on the present value earnings losses associated with job displacement. The model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) extended to include search on the job generates present value losses only one-fourth as large as observed losses. Moreover, present value losses in the model vary little with aggregate conditions at the time of displacement, unlike the pattern in the data.

Do initial conditions persist between firms? An analysis of firm-entry cohort effects and job losers using matched employer-employee data

"Influential studies have suggested that initial conditions can have persistent effects on workers' careers within firms. It is a longstanding question among economists whether such lasting wage differentials among firms and industries are due to persistent deviations of wages from workers' skills due to contracting and market frictions, or whether they arise from permanent differences among workers' skills. However, there is currently little representative evidence on firm-entry cohort effects and few explicit tests of alternative explanations. We use information on the universe of workers from a large German manufacturing sector from matched employer-employee records to show that firm-entry cohort effects are a pervasive phenomenon for the firms we study. The cohort effects we estimate are highly heterogeneous across firms and slowly fade over time. We also find that wage premiums on the past job are lost at job displacement, and that initial positive effects on wage levels at the new job fades over time. This suggests that at least part of firm-entry cohort effects arise from transitory rents, and that initial effects from previous wages fade as workers' search for better jobs." (author's abstract)Einflussreiche Studien gehen davon aus, dass sich die Bedingungen beim Berufseinstieg langfristig auf den Berufsverlauf von Arbeitskräften im Betrieb auswirken. Obwohl es unter Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern seit langem umstritten ist, ob die anhaltenden Lohnunterschiede zwischen Betrieben und Wirtschaftszweigen auf die Persistenz qualifikationsbedingter Lohnunterschiede infolge von Vertrags- und Arbeitsmarktfriktionen zurückgeführt werden können oder auf anhaltende Qualifikationsunterschiede, gibt es nur wenige empirische Studien und Erkenntnisse über Kohorteneffekte. Auf der Basis des IAB-Linked-Employer-Employee-Datensatzes werden Daten zum Berufsverlauf in der Automobilindustrie analysiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die Kohorteneffekte für die untersuchten Betriebe nachhaltig sind, dass es große betriebsspezifische Unterschiede gibt, und dass sich die Kohorteneffekte im Laufe der Zeit abschwächen. Erworbene Lohnprämien gehen bei Entlassungen verloren und anfängliche positive Auswirkungen auf die Lohnhöhe im neuen Betrieb nehmen mit der Zeit ab. Diese Befunde deuten darauf hin, dass Kohorteneffekte des Berufseinstiegs zumindest teilweise vorübergehender Natur sind, und dass die Auswirkungen von Löhnen aus vorherigen Beschäftigungen mit der Zeit verblassen, da die Arbeitskräfte nach besseren Stellen suchen. (IAB