Incorporating the field border effect to reduce the predicted uncertainty of pollen dispersal model in Asia

The presence of the field border (FB), such as roadways or unplanted areas, between two fields is common in Asian farming system. This study evaluated the effect of the FB on the cross-pollination (CP) and predicted the CP rate in the field considering and not considering FB. Three experiments including 0, 6.75, and 7.5 m width of the FB respectively were conducted to investigate the effect of distance and the FB on the CP rate. The dispersal models combined kernel and observation model by calculating the parameter of observation model from the output of kernel. These models were employed to predict the CP rate at different distances. The Bayesian method was used to estimate parameters and provided a good prediction with uncertainty. The highest average CP rates in the field with and without FB were 74.29% and 36.12%, respectively. It was found that two dispersal models with the FB effect displayed a higher ability to predict average CP rates. The correlation coefficients between actual CP rates and CP rates predicted by the dispersal model combined zero-inflated Poisson observation model with compound exponential kernel and modified Cauchy kernel were 0.834 and 0.833, respectively. Furthermore, the predictive uncertainty was reducing using the dispersal models with the FB effect

Bootstrap simulations for evaluating the model estimation of the extent of cross-pollination in maize at the field-scale level.

With the recent advent of genetic engineering, numerous genetically modified (GM) crops have been developed, and field planting has been initiated. In open-environment cultivation, the cross-pollination (CP) of GM crops with wild relatives, conventional crops, and organic crops can occur. This exchange of genetic material results in the gene flow phenomenon. Consequently, studies of gene flow among GM crops have primarily focused on the extent of CP between the pollen source plot and the adjacent recipient field. In the present study, Black Pearl Waxy Corn (a variety of purple glutinous maize) was used to simulate a GM-maize pollen source. The pollen recipient was Tainan No. 23 Corn (a variety of white glutinous maize). The CP rate (%) was calculated according to the xenia effect on kernel color. We assessed the suitability of common empirical models of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) for GM maize, and the field border (FB) effect of the model was considered for small-scale farming systems in Asia. Field-scale data were used to construct an optimal model for maize PMGF in the maize-producing areas of Chiayi County, southern Taiwan (R.O.C). Moreover, each model was verified through simulation and by using the 95% percentile bootstrap confidence interval length. According to the results, a model incorporating both the distance from the source and the FB can have optimal fitting and predictive abilities

Effectiveness of different sampling schemes in predicting adventitious genetically modified maize content in a smallholder farming system

When genetically modified (GM) maize is planted in an open field, it may cross-pollinate with the nearby non-GM maize under certain airflow conditions. Suitable sampling methods are crucial for tracing adventitious GM content. By using field data and bootstrap simulation, we evaluated the performance of common sampling schemes to determine the adventitious GM content in small maize fields in Taiwan. A pollen dispersal model that considered the effect of field borders, which are common in Asian agricultural landscapes, was used to predict the cross-pollination (CP) rate. For the 2009-1 field data, the six-transect (Tsix), JM method for low expected flow (JM[L]), JM method for high expected flow (JM[H]), and V-shaped transect (TV) methods performed comparably to simple random sampling (SRS). Tsix, TV, JM(L), and JM(H) required only 13% or less of the sample size required by SRS. After the simulation and verification of the 2009-2 and 2010-1 field data, we concluded that Tsix, TV, JM(L), and systematic random sampling methods performed equally as well as SRS in CP rate predictions. Our findings can serve as a reference for monitoring the pollen dispersal tendencies of maize in countries with smallholder farming systems

Bootstrap simulations for evaluating the model estimation of the extent of cross-pollination in maize at the field-scale level

With the recent advent of genetic engineering, numerous genetically modified (GM) crops have been developed, and field planting has been initiated. In open-environment cultivation, the cross-pollination (CP) of GM crops with wild relatives, conventional crops, and organic crops can occur. This exchange of genetic material results in the gene flow phenomenon. Consequently, studies of gene flow among GM crops have primarily focused on the extent of CP between the pollen source plot and the adjacent recipient field. In the present study, Black Pearl Waxy Corn (a variety of purple glutinous maize) was used to simulate a GM-maize pollen source. The pollen recipient was Tainan No. 23 Corn (a variety of white glutinous maize). The CP rate (%) was calculated according to the xenia effect on kernel color. We assessed the suitability of common empirical models of pollen-mediated gene flow (PMGF) for GM maize, and the field border (FB) effect of the model was considered for small-scale farming systems in Asia. Field-scale data were used to construct an optimal model for maize PMGF in the maize-producing areas of Chiayi County, southern Taiwan (R.O.C). Moreover, each model was verified through simulation and by using the 95% percentile bootstrap confidence interval length. According to the results, a model incorporating both the distance from the source and the FB can have optimal fitting and predictive abilities