Early Retirement in Germany: Loss of income and lifetime?

The public pension system in Germany allows early retirement albeit at the cost of pension deductions. Deductions are calculated under the assumption that life expectancy is indepen-dent of the age of retirement and apply equally for men and women. The "fair" amount of deductions is currently debated, the general feeling being that they are too low. In this paper we show that remaining lifetime and thus the perpetuity period vary with the age of retirement. In a survival analysis using micro data from the German Pension Insurance, we find that remaining life expectancy of men at age 65 receiving old-age pensions with age 60 to 66 is up to 1.9 years higher if retirement occurred later. For women, instead, life expec-tancy is almost independent of retirement age. Extending the analysis to invalidity pensioners (they receive pensions before the age of 60), we find that men and women reaching the age of 65 have a more than 3 years lower remaining life expectancy than old-age pensioners on average. Many other variables, like residence (West and East Germany), lifetime wage in-come and number of children are considered, too. In a simple model we finally calculate and compare actuarial deductions under the alternative assumptions of constant and age-of-retirement dependent life expectancy. The main conclusion is that deductions currently in law are too high for very early retirees (below age 63) and too low for all others.Life expectancy, retirement age, early retirement, pension deductions

Demographic change and industry-specific innovation patterns in Germany

In Germany, a thread to growth is perceived from demographic change. Demographic change means that a population is aging with the perspective of shrinking. The key question is whether an aging and shrinking population has enough talents to sustain the innovation process that is at the basis of our prosperity. In this paper we deal with the age distributions of inventivity. Specifically, we confirm past conjectures that inventive productivity is age dependent and unequally distributed among inventors. Additionally, we advance the new hypothesis that any age-bias in innovation activity should show up as industry-specific. The reason is that creative productivity is depending on the rate of technological change that on its part is industry specific. We test this hypothesis with European patent data for Germany.innovation, patents, age-dependent productivity, demographics, sectors

Age, Occupations, and Opportunities for Older Workers in Germany

Improvement of the labor market situation for the elderly is a declared target in the EU. In this study we derive a model of occupational age structure, its determinants and their impact on employment and re-employment opportunities for older workers. The empirical analysis is based on data from German microcensus and conducted on the level of occupations. We show firstly that education, skills, training requirements and the compensation structure affect employment and re-employment of workers aged 50 and above, though detailed impact differs by gender. And secondly, working conditions and arrangements exert a clear-cut influence on employment and re-employment at older ages. Our findings suggest that future labor market policies should focus on working conditions and arrangement to improve opportunities for older workers.labor force aging, employment, re-employment, gender

Aging in German Industries and Selected Professions (Alterung der Erwerbspersonen in Deutschland)

Population aging translates into aging of the labor force. However, the impact of the former on the latter is neither straightforward nor uniform over specific groups. The reason is that economic decisions concerning, for example, duration of schooling or labor-market participation of women and those aged 60+ as well as industry-specific requirements on the demand side affect age-specific employment rates and thus the age structure of labor. In this paper we describe and use different measures of aging to obtain a picture of the aging process in selected German industries and professions between 1980 and 2000. Our results reveal pronounced differences in the age structure, timing and dynamics of aging. However, we find that aging is, in general, subject to convergence towards a homogenous age composition: Subgroups that were relatively young in 1980 aged faster, and vice versa.

Vorausberechnung der Anzahl und Struktur privater Haushalte in Deutschland, Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern bis 2030

Durch den demografischen Wandel und den damit einhergehenden sozio-ökonomischen Veränderungen werden sich die Zahl und Struktur der privaten Haushalte in Deutschland bis 2030 erheblich ändern. Dabei sind große regionale Unterschiede in den Entwicklungen zu erwarten, die beispielsweise zwischen Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern besonders deutlich ausfallen. Haushaltsvorausberechnungen gehen von einer Fortsetzung des Trends zu kleineren Haushalten und einer starken Alterung der Mitglieder und Vorstände aus. Diese zeigt sich in der rückläufigen Zahl von Personen im jungen und mittleren Alter und einer starken Zunahme der Anzahl über 60-Jähriger. Für Deutschland und Hamburg wird eine steigende Zahl an Haushalten erwartet, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern sinkt sie. Überall steigt die Zahl der 1- und 2-Personenhaushalte, während es weniger Haushalte mit 3 und mehr Personen geben wird. Haushaltsvorausberechnungen sind u.a. für Infrastrukturplanungen notwendig

Renteneintrittsalter und Lebensdauer: Was kostet die Frühverrentung?

In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass sich für die Versicherten in der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung (GRV) ein statistischer Zusammenhang zwischen dem Alter bei Renteneintritt und der verbleibenden Lebensdauer nachweisen lässt. So steigt die fernere Lebenserwartung im Alter von 65 Jahren für Männer mit dem Renteneintrittsalter um bis zu 2,3 Jahre an. Die Lebenserwartung für Frauen ist hingegen mit einer maximalen Differenz von 0,4 Jahren nahezu unabhängig vom Renteneintrittsalter. Frühverrentung scheint sich demnach für Männer, gemessen an ihrer Lebenserwartung, nicht zu lohnen, die berechneten Rentenabschläge sind auch zu hoch. Dieser Aspekt differentieller Sterblichkeit, der nicht mit dem Kohorteneffekt einer steigenden Lebenserwartung zu verwechseln ist, kann auch für betriebliche und private Rentenkassen von Bedeutung sein. Eine einfache Modellrechnung für die GRV ergibt, dass sich die Frühverrentung für sie lohnen kann: ein früher Renteneintritt von Männern und Frauen entlastet die GRV, am kostenträchtigsten ist ein Renteneintritt im mittleren Alter von 63-64 Jahren. Am Beispiel des Rentenzugangs 2003 wird aber anschliessend gezeigt, dass die bisher übliche Annahme einer vom Renteneintrittsalter unabhängigen Lebensdauer insgesamt zu einer Deckungslücke in der Rentenversicherung führen kann

Prognose der Erwerbspersonenzahl in Deutschland, Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern bis 2030

Der Demografische Wandel in Deutschland und Europa führt zu einer veränderten Nachfrage nach Infrastrukturdienstleistungen. Für einige Bereiche wie den Verkehr ist dabei die Entwicklung der Erwerbspersonenzahl von Bedeutung. Eine regional stark unterschiedliche demografische Entwicklung und Erwerbsbeteiligung impliziert eine ungleiche Veränderung der Zahl und Struktur der Erwerbspersonen. In dieser Arbeit wird als Input für Infrastrukturmodelle eine Prognose der Erwerbspersonenzahl in Deutschland sowie zwei Modellregionen Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vorgestellt, welche sich in ihrer Entwicklung deutlich unterscheiden.Erwerbspersonen, Prognose, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Age, occupations, and opportunities for older workers in Germany

Improvement of the labor market situation for the elderly is a declared target in the EU. In this study we derive a model of occupational age structure, its determinants and their impact on employment and re-employment opportunities for older workers. The empirical analysis is based on data from German microcensus and conducted on the level of occupations. We show firstly that education, skills, training requirements and the compensation structure affect employment and re-employment of workers aged 50 and above, though detailed impact differs by gender. And secondly, working conditions and arrangements exert a clear-cut influence on employment and re-employment at older ages. Our findings suggest that future labor market policies should focus on working conditions and arrangement to improve opportunities for older workers

Regionale Bevölkerungsentwicklung in der Metropolregion Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung im Rahmen des Projekts 'Infrastrukturplanung und demografische Entwicklungen' (InfraDem)

Der Demografische Wandel in Deutschland und Europa führt zu einer veränderten Nachfrage nach Infrastrukturdienstleistungen. Allerdings verläuft die demografische Entwicklung regional unterschiedlich. In dieser Arbeit werden als demografischer Input für Infrastrukturmodelle Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen für zwei Modellregionen vorgestellt, die Metropolregion Hamburg mit einer relativ jungen, wachsenden Bevölkerung und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern mit einer relativ alten, schrumpfenden Bevölkerung

Early retirement in Germany: Loss of income and lifetime?

The public pension system in Germany allows early retirement albeit at the cost of pension deductions. Deductions are calculated under the assumption that life expectancy is independent of the age of retirement and apply equally for men and women. The 'fair' amount of deductions is currently debated, the general feeling being that they are too low. In this paper we show that remaining lifetime and thus the perpetuity period vary with the age of retirement. In a survival analysis using micro data from the German Pension Insurance, we find that remaining life expectancy of men at age 65 receiving old-age pensions with age 60 to 66 is up to 1.9 years higher if retirement occurred later. For women, instead, life expectancy is almost independent of retirement age. Extending the analysis to invalidity pensioners (they receive pensions before the age of 60), we find that men and women reaching the age of 65 have a more than 3 years lower remaining life expectancy than old-age pensioners on average. Many other variables, like residence (West and East Germany), lifetime wage income and number of children are considered, too. In a simple model we finally calculate and compare actuarial deductions under the alternative assumptions of constant and age-of-retirement dependent life expectancy. The main conclusion is that deductions currently in law are too high for very early retirees (below age 63) and too low for all others